Attacks in Saudi & Fanatics Goes All-In on Gambling 10/14/26

Amos Hochstein · TWG Global

Waiting for Iran's economy to collapse under an embargo is a bad strategy; the regime won't fall soon.

Hochstein says the embargo is the patient approach that waits for the Iranian economy to collapse. He estimates that would take six to twelve months, and he argues the regime will not collapse anytime soon even under extreme economic stress. Meanwhile, Iran's proxies keep acting: Houthi attacks, Shia militias in southern Iraq, and tanker strikes. Status quo is not a stable option because the situation keeps changing. He therefore thinks waiting is a bad strategy.

“It would take a very long time, six months, nine months, twelve months. The Iranian regime is not gonna collapse anytime soon even under these extreme economic issues.”at 19:36

Amos Hochstein · TWG Global

Trump should negotiate with Iran on nuclear limits and Hormuz navigation, lifting sanctions as Obama did.

Hochstein argues the economic pressure should be aimed at getting a deal rather than at collapse. The first priority is restoring agreed limits on weapons-grade nuclear material. The second is freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and the US should take as much of that as it can. He cites his time running Obama-era Iran oil sanctions, when sanctions were used to bring Iran to the table, and then they were lifted after a deal. He thinks Trump should do the same.

“The point was not sanctions for sanctions sake. It was to... The Iranians didn't wanna come to the table. We did the sanctions effectively. They came to the table. We did a deal. We lifted them. I think that's what he's gotta do here.”at 24:18

Amos Hochstein · TWG Global

The US sat out the Houthi advance, failing to deter it despite Saudi requests for help.

Hochstein says there was no US reaction when the Houthis advanced into Saudi Arabia and took over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait a few weeks earlier. Normally, US presence in the region would have deterred and stopped that advance. He calls it an uncomplicated advance by a not very sophisticated military. Previous administrations, from Obama through Trump to Biden, kept the Houthis contained. He says the US sat it out even though Saudi Arabia asked for help. He cannot understand why.

“there was no US reaction. The United States normally would have used its presence in the region to deter and to stop that advance.”at 17:31

Amos Hochstein · TWG Global

US munitions can't be ramped up meaningfully within months, and stockpiles are strained by several wars.

Hochstein says US military planning for the last decade and a half did not account for supplying Ukraine for four years, aiding Israel, and fighting two wars against Iran that used large amounts of munitions without a resupply chain behind them. He doubts the US is running out of munitions for current operations. He argues that any further escalation would require more munitions. A two-, three- or four-month production ramp-up is not a meaningful increase in supply.

“the ramp up, you're talking about a two month, three month, four month, that's not a meaningful ramp up of supply.”at 21:30

Amos Hochstein · TWG Global

Energy prices won't come down while Hormuz tanker attacks continue; the futures price is detached from reality.

Hochstein says energy prices are not going down. He argues the quoted price is a futures contract that does not reflect the physical market. Tankers are being hit daily and nightly, with casualties, so some shipping companies are refusing to sail. Freight costs have soared, with shipping costs reported at about $1.4 million per voyage versus about $100,000 before. That raises the cost of moving oil and keeps physical prices high.

“And by the way, the energy prices are not going down. ... The price on the screen is a futures contract that is detached from reality.”at 21:55

Michael Rubin · Fanatics

US betting marketing spend will rise from about $3B to roughly $7B next year.

Rubin estimates that about $3 billion was spent on US betting and gaming last year, and expects about $7 billion on marketing next year. He says the market is extremely competitive, with five major players competing for customers. He frames the figure as a bet, so it is an estimate rather than a company guidance number.

“There were probably $3,000,000,000 spent in US betting and gaming last year. I bet you there'd be $7,000,000,000 spent in marketing next year.”at 30:28