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Amos Hochstein: latest market views
TWG Global
Summary
Amos Hochstein is managing partner at TWG Global, overseeing strategy and investments in AI, energy and infrastructure, and was formerly President Biden's senior adviser for energy and investment and a Middle East negotiator.
Chorus has 9 views from Amos Hochstein across 2 episodes on CNBC Power Lunch and Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) since October 14, 2026.
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Renewed US-Iran military conflict has a better-than-even chance and could come within a week.
Hochstein says the headlines about breakthroughs should not distract from the fact that war plans remain very much alive and are probably the lead policy. He says a decision to go back to war was made before the midterms and was only postponed by days to a week. He thinks the midterm result may not change the president's calculus, and that the president has only three bad options: go back to war, accept an unwanted deal, or keep economic pressure on Iran, which he finds too slow. He was in the Middle East recently and still puts the odds above 50-50.
“I'm not saying that they will, but I think that there is a very good chance that we go back to conflict.”at 16:52
CNBC Power Lunch: Power Lunch: Tech Sell-Off, AI Repricing and Washington Shakeup ·
If US-Iran conflict resumes, oil, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices will resurge.
Hochstein argues that the risk of war is still very much alive and he puts the odds above 50-50. He says that if conflict returns, the effect on energy markets is clear: energy costs will surge in both crude oil and refined products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. He sees the market as needing to price this risk in.
“And if what that will do to energy markets is clear. We're gonna see a resurge in energy costs in both the oil as well as in products, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etcetera.”at 18:38
CNBC Power Lunch: Power Lunch: Tech Sell-Off, AI Repricing and Washington Shakeup ·
Congress will press to reverse curbs on renewable permitting; permitting reform is achievable with a few Republicans.
Hochstein says the administration severely restricted renewable energy, especially offshore wind, and to a lesser extent onshore wind and some solar projects. He expects strong pressure from a Democratic Congress to restore and accelerate permitting and licensing for renewables. He argues that with big majorities in both chambers, Democrats only need a few Senate Republicans to pass a safe permitting reform, which would address the affordability message that won them the midterms.
“this administration decided to severely restrict renewable energy. Specifically, most draconianly is the offshore wind, but either in onshore wind and some solar projects. I think there's going to be a lot of pressure from Congress now to say, Hey, if you want to work with us, that's got to be turned back on.”at 20:36
CNBC Power Lunch: Power Lunch: Tech Sell-Off, AI Repricing and Washington Shakeup ·
Hyperscalers should pay far more for energy build-out so consumers do not face higher electricity bills.
Hochstein expects a conversation, through legislation or the threat of it, forcing hyperscalers to contribute more to the energy demand build-out. The aim is to ensure the AI boom is not cost-negative for ordinary American consumers through much higher electricity costs. He notes some of the companies that had refused to engage are now starting to accept that such a conversation is needed.
“forcing some kind of conversation with hyperscalers on how do we approach the entire build out of the energy demand side so that they're paying not just their fair share, but paying a lot more into it so that it doesn't come with a bill to consumers paying much higher electricity costs.”at 21:27
CNBC Power Lunch: Power Lunch: Tech Sell-Off, AI Repricing and Washington Shakeup ·
US global standing & alliances
The US sat out the Houthi advance, failing to deter it despite Saudi requests for help.
Hochstein says there was no US reaction when the Houthis advanced into Saudi Arabia and took over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait a few weeks earlier. Normally, US presence in the region would have deterred and stopped that advance. He calls it an uncomplicated advance by a not very sophisticated military. Previous administrations, from Obama through Trump to Biden, kept the Houthis contained. He says the US sat it out even though Saudi Arabia asked for help. He cannot understand why.
“there was no US reaction. The United States normally would have used its presence in the region to deter and to stop that advance.”at 17:31
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Attacks in Saudi & Fanatics Goes All-In on Gambling 10/14/26 ·
Waiting for Iran's economy to collapse under an embargo is a bad strategy; the regime won't fall soon.
Hochstein says the embargo is the patient approach that waits for the Iranian economy to collapse. He estimates that would take six to twelve months, and he argues the regime will not collapse anytime soon even under extreme economic stress. Meanwhile, Iran's proxies keep acting: Houthi attacks, Shia militias in southern Iraq, and tanker strikes. Status quo is not a stable option because the situation keeps changing. He therefore thinks waiting is a bad strategy.
“It would take a very long time, six months, nine months, twelve months. The Iranian regime is not gonna collapse anytime soon even under these extreme economic issues.”at 19:36
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Attacks in Saudi & Fanatics Goes All-In on Gambling 10/14/26 ·
US munitions can't be ramped up meaningfully within months, and stockpiles are strained by several wars.
Hochstein says US military planning for the last decade and a half did not account for supplying Ukraine for four years, aiding Israel, and fighting two wars against Iran that used large amounts of munitions without a resupply chain behind them. He doubts the US is running out of munitions for current operations. He argues that any further escalation would require more munitions. A two-, three- or four-month production ramp-up is not a meaningful increase in supply.
“the ramp up, you're talking about a two month, three month, four month, that's not a meaningful ramp up of supply.”at 21:30
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Attacks in Saudi & Fanatics Goes All-In on Gambling 10/14/26 ·
Energy prices won't come down while Hormuz tanker attacks continue; the futures price is detached from reality.
Hochstein says energy prices are not going down. He argues the quoted price is a futures contract that does not reflect the physical market. Tankers are being hit daily and nightly, with casualties, so some shipping companies are refusing to sail. Freight costs have soared, with shipping costs reported at about $1.4 million per voyage versus about $100,000 before. That raises the cost of moving oil and keeps physical prices high.
“And by the way, the energy prices are not going down. ... The price on the screen is a futures contract that is detached from reality.”at 21:55
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Attacks in Saudi & Fanatics Goes All-In on Gambling 10/14/26 ·
Trump should negotiate with Iran on nuclear limits and Hormuz navigation, lifting sanctions as Obama did.
Hochstein argues the economic pressure should be aimed at getting a deal rather than at collapse. The first priority is restoring agreed limits on weapons-grade nuclear material. The second is freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and the US should take as much of that as it can. He cites his time running Obama-era Iran oil sanctions, when sanctions were used to bring Iran to the table, and then they were lifted after a deal. He thinks Trump should do the same.
“The point was not sanctions for sanctions sake. It was to... The Iranians didn't wanna come to the table. We did the sanctions effectively. They came to the table. We did a deal. We lifted them. I think that's what he's gotta do here.”at 24:18
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Attacks in Saudi & Fanatics Goes All-In on Gambling 10/14/26 ·
Shows
- CNBC Power Lunch · 1 episode
- Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) · 1 episode
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