John Waldron on GDP Growth, AI, and the M&A Outlook

John Waldron · Goldman SachsBullish

T. Rowe Price has one of the largest and best US retirement platforms, which Goldman lacks.

T. Rowe Price has one of the largest and best retirement platforms in the US, a capability Goldman Sachs does not have. Goldman is unlikely to build one from scratch soon, so it partnered with T. Rowe Price instead. The partnership combines T. Rowe's retirement access with Goldman's public and private markets expertise to design products such as model portfolios, private credit, interval funds and multi-asset public-private structures.

“We actually did a partnership with T. [Rowe] Price. ... T. [Rowe] Price has one of the largest and best retirement platforms in The United States. Goldman Sachs doesn't have that.”at 13:31

John Waldron · Goldman Sachs

The US consumer remains very resilient, with demand strong across consumer and enterprise markets.

Waldron says the consumer is still very resilient. Demand is strong across consumer, wholesale and enterprise end markets, particularly in the US. Companies see that demand and are investing accordingly, with nominal growth above 6% and strong end demand across most companies.

“And the consumer is still very resilient.”at 2:54

John Waldron · Goldman Sachs

Firm is constructive on US growth: real GDP near 2.5%, possibly 3%, with nominal growth above 6%.

Nominal US growth looks likely to exceed 6%. With inflation running hotter, real growth sits in the 2% range. The firm's forecast is roughly 2.5% real growth, which Waldron calls pretty strong, and it could reach 3% if things break a certain way. Strong end demand and very strong earnings support the constructive view.

“We're constructive. As I said, nominal growth in The US looks like it's gonna be north of 6%. ... I think our forecast is two and a half percent real growth plus minus.”at 3:56

John Waldron · Goldman Sachs

Firm expects US inflation to migrate down from current hot levels, which would be quite helpful.

Inflation is currently higher and feeds through to businesses, especially large multinationals, while higher rates raise the cost of capital. The firm expects inflation to start migrating down, which Waldron says could be quite helpful. Real growth is near 2.5% even with hotter inflation, so easing inflation would support the outlook.

“We obviously think as a firm inflation will start to migrate down, and that could be quite helpful.”at 4:16

John Waldron · Goldman Sachs

China is a tale of two economies: weak domestic demand but strong innovation and export growth.

Waldron describes China as a tale of two cities. The domestic economy is weak, but the innovation economy is very strong and export growth is significant. Based on time spent in Asia, growth in Asia is very strong overall. The export push is also hurting European industries such as autos.

“It's almost a tale of two cities. It's kind of a weak domestic economy, but very strong innovation economy and a lot of export growth.”at 4:25

John Waldron · Goldman Sachs

Europe's growth is muted and sentiment poor, but the backdrop is better than the narrative suggests.

European growth is more muted than in the US and Asia, and sentiment is poor. Politics, geopolitics, lack of energy security, and the wars in Ukraine and Iran weigh disproportionately on European economies. Chinese excess auto supply at low prices hurts European carmakers. Waldron still thinks Europe is better than people feel and calls the environment pretty constructive, so the gloom is overdone.

“Growth in Europe, more muted. ... A little better than I think narrative suggests. People are very down on Europe.”at 4:40

John Waldron · Goldman Sachs

Japan is having a real moment of stronger growth, loan demand and sentiment after years of muted growth.

Japan had a long run of muted growth but is now seeing more growth, more loan demand, and a yield curve to work with. An asset management push is unlocking deposits that were previously idle. Waldron saw this on a recent visit and says Japan now has much more positive sentiment than Europe.

“Japan has had a long run of relatively muted growth, but all of a sudden, Japan's having a real moment where there is more growth. There is more loan demand.”at 5:39

John Waldron · Goldman Sachs

Corporate M&A will rise 30-35% in 2026, a record year, driven by scale and fit-and-focus deals.

Corporate M&A is expected to rise 30-35% in 2026 from an already strong base, making it a record year. Backlogs and pipelines are very strong. The firm sees a bias for scale: larger companies attract more capital, earn better returns, are treated better by the market, and can spend on AI compute. Companies also pursue fit-and-focus moves, with spins and carve-outs that let them grow where they win and exit weaker businesses, often to private equity or public markets. Waldron reads rising M&A as a good indicator of CEO confidence.

“We're gonna see corporate M and A up 30, 35% this year. ... Should be a record year in M and A this year.”at 6:20