Closing Bell Overtime: Markets Search for Opportunity After a Wild Week 10/23/26

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 38 speakers in other episodes, 38 bullish and 18 bearish calls, past 30 days

• John Belton · Gabelli FundsBullish

  Meta's digital ad business is accelerating significantly thanks to AI, an underappreciated monetization example.

  Belton argues AI monetization is alive and well and that clear commercial use cases are playing out now. Digital advertising is the main example, and Meta's ad business is accelerating significantly at its scale because of AI. He sees this as underappreciated by the market, which sold Meta off on its capex disclosure despite the ad strength.

  “Personally, I do feel like the monetization story is alive and well. I think there are clear commercial use cases for AI that are playing out today. One of the big ones is digital advertising. Meta showed that as well. Accelerating that ad business pretty significantly at the scale they're at, Thanks to AI.”at 6:16

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 29 speakers in other episodes, 21 bullish and 12 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Craig Moffett · MoffettNathansonBearish

  SpaceX building a terrestrial wireless network as fourth player lacks clearly attractive returns.

  Moffett had argued satellites cannot offload much traffic, so competing well requires a terrestrial network. A terrestrial build gives SpaceX a cost structure no different from the carriers, and offloading to satellites loses its advantage once the network exists. He is puzzled why SpaceX would enter as the fourth player, since the return is not clearly attractive. He adds that subsidised handsets and a long startup phase would keep cash flow negative for a long time.

  “I'm trying to figure out what is it that makes you want to be in this business as the fourth player. Because... It's it's just not clear that there's an attractive return here.”at 25:07

Crown Castle

• Craig Moffett · MoffettNathansonBullish

  A SpaceX tower build would bring real, high-margin lease revenue to tower companies like Crown Castle.

  Moffett cites colleague Nick Del Deo's view that the market reaction suggests a big tower build. SpaceX has now said it will do one. It is unclear who it would use, but if it follows through there is real revenue for towers with very high marginal contribution, since the towers already exist and SpaceX would be another tenant on leased space.

  “my colleague Nick Del Deo, who covers the towers, would say that just the reaction last time suggested a pretty big tower build. This time, they've said they're gonna do a big tower build. It's not clear who they do it with, but if they actually follow through, there's there's real revenue for the towers, and it's very high marginal contribution.”at 27:06

Anthropic

Across the shows: 42 speakers in other episodes, 24 bullish and 44 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Adam Crisafulli · Vital KnowledgeUncertain

  An Anthropic IPO that trades well would be a big boost for the AI industry; it is next week's key event.

  Crisafulli says the market's focus is less on earnings than on capital availability and appetite for paper from these companies. If Anthropic comes before Thanksgiving, it would need to arrive early next week. The key question is valuation and aftermarket trading. If it comes out at a valuation above $1.5 trillion and trades well beyond that, it would be a big shot in the arm for the industry.

  “That I think is really what people want to know most about, not earnings... if Anthropic does well, if it comes out at a 1,500,000,000,000 plus valuation and trades well beyond that, that would be a... big shot in the arm for the industry.”at 35:15

Microsoft

Across the shows: 8 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Brad Conger · Hirtle Callaghan & Co.Bullish

  Hyperscalers have derated; Microsoft at a 20x forward multiple is when his fund starts buying.

  Conger's fund bought into some hyperscalers after their valuations derated. It was underweight when they traded at high-20s to low-30s P/E. Microsoft reaching a 20x forward multiple is the level at which his fund starts participating, so he sees its valuation as the entry point.

  “So we have bought into some of the hyperscalers as they've derated. So, when they were high 20s and low 30s PE, we were underweight. Microsoft gets to a 20 forward multiple. We start to participate.”at 36:39

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China

• Mark Headley · MatthewsBullish

  Emerging-market financials like Ping An are oversold on low valuations; he is pushing his team to look.

  Headley is excited about financials across emerging markets, based on low valuations and a gradual recovery in domestic earnings. He cites Ping An as an individual play that has been slaughtered this year in capitulation selling in China. He is pushing his team to spend much more time on these names.

  “So you've got to hope that with low valuation and a gradual recovery in domestic earnings, I'm actually really excited about financials across the emerging markets universe. I am really pushing our team to spend a lot of time looking at them. I think individual plays like Ping An that, you know, have just been slaughtered this year. It's just capitulation selling in China.”at 41:20

Apple

Across the shows: 9 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Mackenzie Sigalos · CNBCUncertain

  Early iPhone Duo demand looks strong, but tough iPhone 17 comps loom for the December quarter.

  Walk-in iPhone Duo inventory sold out by 10AM, and the line at the New York store tripled overnight, with first-time buyers and Samsung and foldable users coming in. Sigalos calls these imperfect gauges of actual supply, to be refined by supply-chain checks next week. When Apple reports guidance for the December quarter, it faces very tough comps against the iPhone 17 super cycle, when iPhone revenue hit $85 billion, up 23%.

  “by 10AM today, so two hours after the doors open, they were out of that walk in inventory. ... But what I will say is that these are imperfect gauges of actual supply. ... That is when those very tough comps against the iPhone 17 super cycle begin.”at 44:28

AI infrastructure & data centers

• John Belton · Gabelli Funds

  AI infrastructure fundamentals will keep benefiting for years, but stocks can derate over revenue quality doubts.

  Belton says companies in the AI infrastructure supply chain (semis, data center industrials, power management) will see fundamentals benefit this year, next year and probably for several years. The open question is the quality of those revenues if they depend only on a build-out that never monetizes. If that doubt holds, fundamentals can keep rising while stock prices keep derating, which he says is what has been happening.

  “I think clearly those companies, the fundamentals are benefiting this year, next year, probably for the next several years. I guess the question is, there's now a debate about the quality of those revenues. If all of that revenue is flowing through and it's just coming from this build out that's not gonna ultimately monetize, then that's a problem.”at 5:55

• Adam Crisafulli · Vital Knowledge

  Capex funding, not earnings, is the 2027 worry: credit and equity markets may be closing to AI sector paper.

  Crisafulli says Q3 results and Q4 guidance were bullish, with numbers in line and management teams positive, so earnings are not the problem. The tech slump reflects indigestion in capital markets as the sector's equity and credit paper is taken down. If that capital door is slamming shut, the pool of funding that underwrites the group's capex is at risk, and that is what investors are reassessing for 2027.

  “Earnings from the group... were bullish. All the numbers came in at expectations. Management teams are very positive... you're seeing a lot of indigestion in capital markets when it comes to taking down all the equity and credit paper from this sector. And if that capital door is slamming shut, then there are real implications for the pool of capex or the pool of funding”at 31:56

• Brad Conger · Hirtle Callaghan & Co.

  Neocloud selloff reflects worry about five-year contract pricing despite tight compute; long-dated deals could settle it.

  Conger says the market is not doubting demand. Compute is tight and demand is exceptional, but investors are worried about pricing on five-year contracts. He thinks the selloff may settle as more long-dated contracts are announced that are profitable. This frames the neocloud sell-off as a question about contract economics, not current demand.

  “The interesting thing about the sell off in these neo clouds is the market is... yes, compute's tight right now. Demand is exceptional, but we're worried about five year contract pricing. And so I think maybe the market gets settled as people announce more contracts at the long end that are profitable.”at 34:10

• Brad Conger · Hirtle Callaghan & Co.

  Hurdle bought hyperscalers as they derated from high-20s to low-30s P/E multiples.

  Conger says Hurdle has bought into some of the hyperscalers as they derated, when they had been trading in the high 20s and low 30s on P/E. The position reflects a view that the valuation compression created an entry point in the hyperscalers that drive AI infrastructure spending.

  “So we have bought into some of the the hyperscalers as they've derated. So, when they were high 20s and low 30s PE,”at 36:39

Telecom & connectivity

• Craig Moffett · MoffettNathanson

  The SpaceX threat to telcos is a narrative overhang, not a near-term earnings threat; it could take years.

  Moffett says the telco sell-off is overdone if it is based on earnings. The threat is more narrative than financial. SpaceX could take years to build anything that mounts a real threat, if it ever does, so investors face an overhang with uncertain duration and little demonstrated earnings damage.

  “Well, it is if you're basing the sell off on the threat to earnings. The problem is this is more of a narrative threat than a financial threat... It could take years for SpaceX to actually do anything that that mounts a threat if if if at all.”at 23:08

• Craig Moffett · MoffettNathanson

  A new bidder in the upper C-band spectrum auction would raise carriers' costs with no added revenue.

  Even if SpaceX never builds a network, bidding for spectrum could push up prices. The upper C-band auction is due next year. If another bidder enters, prices could rise sharply. Paying more for spectrum generates no extra revenue, so Moffett calls this unequivocally bad for carriers.

  “Even if they don't successfully build a network, if they start bidding for spectrum that could really bid up the price of spectrum. There's a spectrum auction due next year called the upper c band spectrum auction. And if that happens, and there's another bidder, you could see much higher prices. It doesn't generate any extra revenues.”at 28:11

Frontier AI labs & model race

• John Belton · Gabelli Funds

  OpenAI and Anthropic combined revenue should grow six to seven times this year, which is encouraging.

  Belton concedes Anthropic looked to have slowed in the third quarter. He argues that does not change the picture, since OpenAI and Anthropic together will probably grow revenue six or seven times this year, reaching a massive scale. He presents this as evidence that AI is generating real monetization outside the infrastructure layer.

  “Anthropic looks like they slowed down in the third quarter. It doesn't change the fact that combined OpenAI and Anthropic probably get a six or seven X revenue this year to a pretty massive scale, so that's very encouraging.”at 8:25

Oil & fuels

• Pippa Stevens · CNBC

  Oil's rise may last longer than thought as backwardation shallows and geopolitical risk premium builds.

  Stevens notes Brent has climbed alongside flows recovering from the Middle East. Part of the move looks like portfolio hedging against energy inflation, and part is an opaque geopolitical risk premium, with refiners paying up for barrels as escalation fears grow. Compared with April, the backwardation is much shallower. She says this suggests the elevated price may be more durable than the temporary spike markets first assumed.

  “part of that is potentially some portfolio hedging against energy inflation, but then there's also the kind of opaque... geopolitical risk premium that's now being priced in... it's a lot shallower. And so, you know, that kind of gives a sense that, okay, maybe this is gonna be longer term than we thought.”at 9:36

Cybersecurity

• John Belton · Gabelli Funds

  Unpatched legacy PHP in old routers and firewalls will drive a long tail of breaches in coming months.

  Belton says the most problematic issue is old internet appliances such as routers and firewalls that run old PHP versions and will never be patched. Because of that, he expects a long tail of vulnerabilities and many breaches in the coming months. The point is that the exposure sits in devices that cannot be fixed.

  “What's most problematic... the routers and the firewalls and these old Internet devices that actually use old versions of PHP that will never be patched. There's gonna be a long tail of these vulnerabilities, and you're gonna see a lot of breaches happening in the coming months from this.”at 18:49

AI pricing & unit economics

• Brad Conger · Hirtle Callaghan & Co.

  Token delivery's 95% margin means OpenAI and Anthropic's API businesses are more challenged than thought.

  Conger says DeepSeek released open-source infrastructure code, DeepInfer, showing that delivering tokens is a roughly 95% gross margin business. That shocked the market because, with a margin that high and no differentiation, the API business models of OpenAI and Anthropic look far more challenged than expected. Melissa Lee notes this leads to price wars down to marginal cost, favoring open-source or Chinese competitors.

  “DeepSeek released its open source infrastructure code called DeepInfer, and the upshot of that was that delivering tokens is a 95% margin business. And I think that shocked the market because it means that the business models of the API links like OpenAI and Anthropic are much more challenged than we thought.”at 32:54

US stock market outlook

• Brad Conger · Hirtle Callaghan & Co.

  A midterm-election lull could be the trigger that releases the market's upside after the Fed meeting.

  Conger says valuations are being digested, with P/E multiples having come in and earnings excellent. The selloff could be a lull tied to the midterms, and the Fed meeting and election are next week. The lull could be the trigger that releases the market's upside, which he says is plausible.

  “We're digesting valuations. Like you said, PEs have come in. Like Adam said, numbers have been excellent. So it could just be a a little bit of a lull around the midterms. Maybe that's the trigger that releases the market's upside.”at 36:19

US rates & the Fed

• Adam Crisafulli · Vital Knowledge

  Fed may treat the AI-driven selloff as a healthy correction, softening its hike path.

  The Fed has said for months that AI is inflationary and crowds out capital, pushing up yields. Crisafulli thinks the Fed may see this week's AI-driven volatility as a normal, healthy correction. Even a small shift in its stance would signal less aggressive tightening than assumed. Markets had priced a 100% chance of a December hike, now slightly below that after the volatility.

  “They've been very vocal for months now that AI is inflationary, that AI is having a crowding out effect, and that's one of the factors driving up yields. So they might just look at what's been happening as a normal correction that's totally healthy and nothing to worry about.”at 37:32

AI chips & semiconductors

• Mark Headley · Matthews

  Asian chip stocks ran too hot, then sold off too far; Korean chipmakers are extremely cheap.

  Asian semiconductors ran too hot too fast on massive local buying, then got clobbered, with Korea the prime example. Korean chipmakers are not at peak levels, are still earning great money, have strong demand and locked-in profits, and are extremely cheap. He expects the stocks to stay volatile but thinks the sell-off went too far.

  “Asian markets and semiconductors in particular ran too hot too fast. Everybody dove in. Massive local buying. They got clobbered... They are extremely cheap. It's gonna be volatile, but honestly, I think this sell off went too far.”at 39:30

US–China AI & chip race

• Mark Headley · Matthews

  China's commodity chip push is coming, but he expects it a couple of years away.

  Headley says the upper-end chip market is safe and solid, while China is coming in the commodity chip market, though he expects that to take a couple of years. Markets now react to every report of China ramping up with 'uh-oh, here comes China', which he thinks overstates the near-term threat to Korean chipmakers.

  “The upper level chip market is pretty safe and pretty solid. The commodity chip market, China, is coming. I think it's gonna be a couple years.”at 39:53

China's economy

• Mark Headley · Matthews

  China's domestic economy is in the dumps; government help will be modest, not dramatic.

  Headley says the Chinese domestic economy is really in the dumps and that Chinese stocks have been capitulation-sold. He expects the government to help, but not dramatically. He compares today's China to Western investors' fear of property after the 2008 crisis, which was followed by a long US rally, arguing low valuations give room for improvement even without exciting earnings growth.

  “It's just capitulation selling in China, and honestly, you know, the Chinese domestic economy is really in the dumps. I think the government will try to help it, not dramatically.”at 41:39

International equities

• Mark Headley · Matthews

  Non-US equities are cheap and underowned; US investors hold only about 4-5% abroad.

  Headley argues that international markets offer opportunity from a very low valuation basis, with little PE movement and little earnings growth, and with both foreign and domestic investors underweight. US investors have fallen to roughly 4-5% of their portfolios in international holdings. He says diversification should avoid semiconductors and focus on smaller and mid-sized companies with domestic earnings.

  “US investors are down to something like four or 5% in their portfolios. Now they get a lot of exposure from big US companies. No doubt about it, but you need to go find diversification that isn't based on the semiconductor industry”at 42:39