Closing Bell Overtime: 10/20/26

Netflix

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Mark Mahaney · Evercore ISIBullish

  Netflix's content and engagement problems are fixable; the stock should eventually rerate once hits return.

  Netflix shares fell about 7% after hours on a soft Q4 revenue guide, a lower full-year ad revenue forecast, and restructuring costs. Mahaney says the bears are winning the near-term argument on engagement and content misses, and that the once-a-year engagement reporting doesn't help. He argues the problem is addressable: Netflix is a 'hit machine' that had a major global hit in five of the last six years, a major exclusive live sports event (women's World Cup) lands next year, and the management team is seasoned. He expects the engagement story to turn if the company accelerates sequels and improves content, and says the stock will rerate. He concedes the content strategy needs changes and the bears are currently winning.

  “I think this is addressable by the company. I mean, this is a hit machine. They just didn't have any big hits this year. But in most years, five of the last six years, they've had a major global hit. My guess is that they'll probably have it next year.”at 6:32

• Mark Mahaney · Evercore ISIBearish

  Netflix's advertising business is immaterial and losing ground to Meta and Google.

  Mahaney has been muted on Netflix ad expectations because he sees the money coming from subscriptions, with the ad-supported plan serving mainly as a funnel to upsell premium plans. Advertising is only about 5% of revenue, so it does not move the stock much. Ad revenue is hard to build because Meta and Google are taking share 'hand over fist' quarter after quarter. He calls the ad business 'certainly not a positive' and says the company started with Microsoft as its first ad partner, which was an early mistake.

  “Advertising is still, you know, we're at fives... 5% of revenue. So I don't think it really moves the stock one way or another... it's hard to build up ad revenue when you've got companies like Meta and Google that are taking share hand over fist quarter in and quarter out.”at 8:33

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 10 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Julie Ju · MoffettNathansonBullish

  SpaceX's compute-leasing ramp is tracking as expected, with revenue building from Q4 2026 into 2027.

  Ju says the quarter's report is 'quite confirmatory' for the AI segment's revenue ramp from the compute-leasing deals. The majority of the ramp should start in late Q4 2026, with the bulk of the deal revenue arriving by early 2027. Anthropic ramps this quarter, Google follows next quarter, and two unnamed deals announced in Q2 and during conference season come after that. She says the ramp and trajectory are as expected, and she will watch for incremental deals and whether the $100B ARR target for December stays on track. SpaceX reported about 1.7 GW of compute, in line with expectations, and capex of $19.6B above the $18B street estimate.

  “I think that this, report at least is quite confirmatory. You'll see the majority of the ramp start later in the fourth quarter of this year... But the ramp and the trajectory is as expected.”at 14:01

• Julie Ju · MoffettNathansonNeutral

  Starlink broadband showed higher ARPU but slightly weaker subscriber growth than expected.

  Starlink broadband ARPU came in at $69 versus the $67 the street expected, while subscribers came in a little light against the expected 14.3 million. Ju reads this as a sign the business was less promotional than expected, or that penetration into lower-ARPU markets outside the US ramped more slowly than anticipated. She calls it a reflection of the tension in a price-times-quantity business. Mobile ambitions and a recent low-band spectrum purchase are the other items she will watch on the call.

  “you'll see that the ARPU was much higher at $69 versus the 67 that was expected by the street... the business was probably a little less promotional than folks had expected and or the penetration into the lower ARPU areas outside of The US was maybe a little slower to ramp”at 15:01

The Boeing Company

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Sean Duffy · U.S. Department of TransportationBullish

  The 737 MAX 10 is safe and certified, and its fuel efficiency will lower costs for airlines.

  Duffy says the FAA's certification of the 737 MAX 10 is huge after nearly a decade of work, with FAA inspectors on the ground working through the process. He says the team is comfortable with the safety case and calls it a great airplane and a great day for Boeing. He claims the jet will save 20–30% in fuel, leading to less gas burn, potentially cheaper flights and lower carbon emissions. He acknowledges a recent software-glitch headline but does not treat it as a safety issue.

  “So we have laboriously worked through this process to make sure we can certify it today. We feel comfortable. It's a great airplane. ... this is gonna save 20 to 30% in fuel efficiency.”at 36:35

• Sean Duffy · U.S. Department of TransportationBullish

  Boeing's MAX fuel efficiency is a win; FAA must certify aircraft faster to keep America competitive with China.

  Duffy calls the MAX 10 certification a great day for aviation and Boeing, citing roughly 30% better fuel efficiency, lower fuel burn, cheaper flights and lower emissions. He dismisses a recent software-glitch headline as not a safety-of-flight issue. He argues certification must get faster because China is positioned to take over in aviation, and notes Europe certifies Boeing aircraft in less than half the time the US takes. Boeing is the country's largest exporter, so he wants it to succeed while staying safe, and expects the FAA and Boeing to build a quicker process together.

  “Boeing is our number one exporter in The US. It's a huge deal. We wanna make sure they're successful and they're safe, but we have to do our job at the FAA.”at 38:22

United Airlines Holdings

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Phil LeBeau · CNBCBearish

  United's jet fuel assumptions imply a sharp earnings cut, and fare-driven demand may face resistance.

  United missed on Q3 EPS ($2.54 vs $2.57) and revenue. Its Q4 EPS guide of $0.50–$1.50 sits below the street's $1.76, with the cut driven by fuel: United assumes $4.80 per gallon for jet fuel, versus $3.90 paid in Q3. LeBeau notes that full-year EPS expectations were $9–$11 as recently as July, so even the top of the new Q4 range implies only about $7.22 for the year. Airlines have passed fuel costs through in higher fares, and demand has held so far, but at $4.80 fuel he wonders whether customers will start to resist.

  “as recently as July, they expected full year EPS of between $9 and $11. Even the most optimistic at a buck 50 in the fourth quarter means they will only earn $7.22.”at 19:11

US stock market outlook

• Liz Ann Sonders · Charles Schwab

  Market rotation is a momentum trade; investors should approach it by factor, not sector.

  Sonders sees the broadening rotation as a momentum trade and welcomes it, since a cap-weighted index needs broad participation to keep rising. She ties the quality rotation more to rising yields than to a retreat to defense. Within the Russell 2000, profitable stocks now beat unprofitable ones by 18 percentage points, the reverse of last year, when unprofitable stocks crushed profitable ones. High-interest-coverage, low-volatility and low-debt names are also doing well. Her conclusion is that the market should be approached at the factor level rather than by sector or cohort.

  “I've had this view that this rotation is the momentum trade. But the concern would be that cap weighted index would ultimately be weighed down if you didn't have enough participation.”at 22:29

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Liz Ann Sonders · Charles Schwab

  Market worry has shifted to financing for highly levered AI buildouts, as AI timelines shrink.

  Sonders says the concern has moved from the AI trade itself to financing. Investors are focused on highly levered companies, where the gap between investment and return is financed. The timeline associated with anything AI has shrunk significantly, so narratives, earnings estimates and capex assumptions change quickly. Leverage, she argues, explains the carnage in the more zombie-like, highly indebted segments of the market.

  “I think the concern is now about the financing... the timeline associated with anything AI has shrunk so significantly. Narratives change quickly.”at 24:09

US rates & the Fed

• Liz Ann Sonders · Charles Schwab

  The Fed will likely skip next week and maybe hike in December; a gradual pace is equity-supportive.

  Sonders expects the Fed to skip at next week's meeting and possibly hike again in December. Historically, the speed of hikes matters most for equities. A Fed that goes up 'by escalator, not elevator' has tended to be supportive, with low double-digit gains in the year after the first hike. If the Fed has to move sharply, with more than 25-basis-point moves, equity returns a year out from the start of the cycle have tended to turn negative.

  “They're likely to skip next week, maybe hike again in December. So a Fed that takes the escalator up and not the elevator up tends to be supportive of kind of low double digit kind of gains in the year subsequent to the initial hike.”at 25:15

Earnings & corporate profits

• Liz Ann Sonders · Charles Schwab

  S&P profit margin assumptions look too high; energy costs and one-time gains aren't fully priced in.

  The forward 12-month S&P 500 profit margin assumption has risen to 17-18%, which Sonders calls 'parabolic'. Energy is a feedstock for many industries, and she does not think higher energy costs have been fully worked into forward margin assumptions. Q2 earnings also got a boost from non-operating gains on stakes in SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, and from tariff refunds booked quickly, which she thinks have not been extrapolated. Together these leave the bar for expectations, with 53% Q2 earnings growth, set too high.

  “there have been these ongoing concerns about the stability in profit margins, because the forward twelve month S and P profit margin assumption is up to 17%, 18%. It's kind of gone parabolic.”at 26:07

Oil & fuels

• Sean Duffy · U.S. Department of Transportation

  Jet fuel supply is adequate; prices should ease as the Iran issue is managed and US energy is expanded.

  Duffy acknowledges that jet fuel prices keep climbing and cites United's guidance of $4.80 a gallon for Q4 versus $3.90 in Q3, which is hurting holiday travel affordability. He says he is concerned about supply but sees no supply issues. He ties the fuel outlook to managing the Iran situation and to continued investment in American energy dominance, and predicts better fuel prices and airline pricing as a result.

  “I think that's the key. And we're gonna get through this, and we're gonna get to even better fuel prices and even better airline pricing because, like the max 10, 30% more fuel efficient, more American energy,”at 40:48