Closing Bell: 10/19/26

Micron Technology

Across the shows: 8 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Adam Parker · Trivariate ResearchBullish

  Micron should keep printing strong quarters; he's bullish despite a record quarter looking like a peak.

  Micron may have just posted the best quarter any manufacturer has had: about $50B revenue at an 86% gross margin. Parker says nobody likes it, yet he doubts the run ends in four to six quarters and thinks the market will give Micron credit for its large cash balance, so he wants to own it at these prices for the next 12 to 24 months. He notes the risk is that earnings fall off later, but for now he expects strong results to continue.

  “But I'm not sure why Micron won't print four, five, six quarters in a row like this, and the amount of money they're gonna make is so great.”at 5:01

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 16 speakers in other episodes, 13 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Adam Parker · Trivariate ResearchBullish

  Nvidia is a buy at these prices for two to three years, given the compute shortage.

  Parker argues the AI buildout is a multi-year cycle, about three and a half years into an eight-to-ten-year run, with a shortage of compute and power expected for several years. He wants to own Nvidia at current prices for two to three years and expects it to outperform the market over 12 to 24 months. He admits it can have a bad three-month stretch but sees chip makers as direct beneficiaries while the shortage lasts.

  “But I wanna own at these prices, Micron, NVIDIA, and Broadcom for next two to three years, that's based on what I know now”at 6:05

Broadcom

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Adam Parker · Trivariate ResearchBullish

  Broadcom is a buy at these prices for the next two to three years.

  Parker sees a multi-year compute and power shortage driving demand for AI chips, and he names Broadcom among the chip stocks he wants to own at these prices. He expects these semiconductor names to outperform the market over 12 to 24 months, with some near-term volatility possible.

  “But I wanna own at these prices, Micron, NVIDIA, and Broadcom for next two to three years, that's based on what I know now”at 6:05

Anthropic

Across the shows: 21 speakers in other episodes, 14 bullish and 35 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Lo Toney · Plexo CapitalBullish

  Anthropic's public benefit fund is a positive step addressing AI disruption and public anxiety.

  Toney, an early Anthropic investor, says the 5% equity donation to a public benefit fund is an important step on a disruption many expect and that people do not yet understand. He says models are becoming powerful enough to need controls, and the fund's philanthropic side and possible guardrails are both needed. He concedes the optics of regulatory capture, but says Anthropic's constitutional AI approach is why he invested and that there is no monopoly on proposals.

  “Think it's an important step to begin to address what many expect will be a disruption”at 26:42

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Adam Parker · Trivariate Research

  Compute and power shortages will persist for several years; hyperscaler capex risk is to the upside.

  Parker says he is not broadly concerned: there will be a shortage of compute and power for the next several years. He thinks the risk to hyperscaler capex is to the upside, pointing to Meta's spending, and expects the AI trade to be a long compute and power theme. He admits some companies carry heavy debt, such as Oracle and CoreWeave, but does not think the big companies have run out of borrowing capacity.

  “We have a shortage of compute and a shortage of power for the next several years.”at 6:05

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  AI spending returns should accelerate, supporting hyperscaler spend that is not slowing.

  Link says hyperscalers are not changing their spending plans, and she cites Amazon's view that AI spending is not a hunch. She points to AWS growth accelerating to 37% and Azure to 43% last quarter as evidence that the spending is paying off. She expects returns on AI investment to accelerate, which would be enough to support the trade even if earnings growth only holds steady.

  “I'm thinking that we're gonna see an acceleration, maybe not dramatic in earnings, but in ROIs. Because that's what got the mag sevens.”at 18:39

• Lo Toney · Plexo Capital

  AI compute demand is still there; the risks are hyperscaler payback and rising cost of capital.

  Toney says the AI selloff reflects CoreWeave's cost of capital, which rising interest rates are making more expensive. He says upcoming earnings must show that demand is still there, which he believes it is, and that hyperscalers can pay back their spending. If financing costs slow the buildout, compute could become scarce even with demand intact, which would hurt revenue growth.

  “things that we wanna see are indications that the demand is still there. I believe it's still there.”at 32:02

• Sonali Basak · iCapital

  Neocloud operators are higher risk than hyperscalers due to thinner margins and shorter debt maturities.

  Basak looks at operating margins across the AI trade and argues only chip designers and hyperscalers have enough flexibility in margins as borrowing costs rise. She says neoclouds were always a higher-risk proposition, not just because of margins but because their debt maturity wall is much shorter, five to six years versus about twelve years for hyperscalers. She says the market is now pricing this in, and that higher interest rates have sharpened the focus on it.

  “It's really only the chip designers and the hyperscalers with a lot of flexibility in that margin. ... When you look at the [neo]clouds, it was always a higher risk proposition, not just because of the margins, but also because their maturity wall is much shorter. Five to six years rather than the hyperscalers closer to twelve years.”at 44:15

US stock market outlook

• Adam Parker · Trivariate Research

  Tech should outperform and the market should be higher on a six-to-twelve-month view.

  Parker argues earnings will grow faster than the market multiple shrinks, because tech is driving much of the growth. He says the market will not get 30% cheaper in a year, so tech should participate in the upside with fits and starts along the way. He expects the market higher on any six-to-twelve-month view.

  “So I think tech will participate in the up trade. So, sure, there'll be fits and starts, but I think tech will outperform. I think the market will be up in any kind of six, twelve month view.”at 7:34

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Market breadth is broadening beyond tech and can continue, supported by a strong economy.

  The equal-weight S&P 500 rose 50 basis points while tech fell about 7% last week, which Link reads as a rotation and broadening. Financials, utilities and communication services also rose, which she finds encouraging. She thinks both tech and other sectors can do well if the economy stays strong, and she hopes the broadening continues.

  “We did see a rotation. We did see a broadening. The big question in my mind is does that continue?”at 10:44

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning Group

  Wait for big tech earnings before buying the Nasdaq; avoid chasing the drawdown now.

  Ethridge says investors should be cautious because of the borrowing concerns and the likely earnings slowdown. He would not buy a Nasdaq index position at this level and would wait until big tech reports. He would only consider buying a beaten-down name he likes, and he expects earnings to tell the market more than usual.

  “I wouldn't step in and buy, like, a Nasdaq per se right here. I'd wait until we start to get earnings from the big tech companies first.”at 14:29

Earnings & corporate profits

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  S&P 500 earnings growth will stay strong next year, not fall to 11%.

  Link disputes Goldman's forecast of 11% earnings growth next year, calling it 'no way' and saying growth will be easily 20%. She notes that even 11% would be above the long-term average of 8 to 10%. She points to a strong economy and AI momentum as the reasons earnings should keep growing.

  “They're not gonna be 11% next year. No way. It's gonna be easily 20% in my mind.”at 10:57

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning Group

  Earnings growth slowing from 37% toward 11-20% would hit the market hard.

  Ethridge expects growth to decelerate from about 37% toward 20%, 11% or 15%, which is far below the current rate. He thinks the trend is down and will cause the market to react badly. He argues the current earnings period could be as good as it gets, since the companies must borrow more to keep spending, and he doubts earnings will hold up.

  “we're probably talking about a deceleration from 37% earnings growth for the year down to whatever the number is, 20%, 11%, 15%... is going to have a meaningful impact on this market.”at 13:42

AI & jobs

• Adam Parker · Trivariate Research

  AI cost cuts from firing white-collar workers could lift earnings for the rest of the decade.

  Parker says companies have not yet shown AI productivity in earnings. He expects that companies will run systems in parallel and cut white-collar workers who add little value, starting in 2027 to 2029. That shift from AI revenue to AI cost savings is the bold case for equities, and he assigns it a meaningful probability, which would support above-trend earnings for the rest of the decade.

  “But what about the other side of it, is you start seeing companies run systems in parallel, fire white collar folks who aren't adding value”at 8:29

Banks

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Big banks report a strong economy, good consumers and very good credit quality.

  Link cites Jamie Dimon's remarks at the WSJ event, where he described a booming economy after years of negative tone. She says all the other big banks beyond JPMorgan said the same: economy good, consumer good, credit quality really good. She acknowledges risks from rates, energy and inflation but finds the bank commentary encouraging.

  “But he's even admitting, and all the other big five banks beyond JPMorgan said the same thing. Economy good, consumer good, credit quality really good.”at 13:00

Credit markets

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning Group

  AI-driven bond issuance is getting pricier with weaker covenants, so investors should be skittish.

  Ethridge says the companies issuing bonds to fund AI spending still find buyers among big money managers, but they must pay higher rates and accept better covenants for investors. He argues this is weaker than it was in March and April. That is why he thinks investors should be skittish, given that the market has disliked additional borrowing since the summer.

  “they are still getting issuances taken up by the bigger money managers, but they're also having to increase the rates that they're offering. They're also having to bake in better covenants”at 14:29

Enterprise AI adoption & AI software

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning Group

  Companies that integrated AI internally will drive ROI and a market reacceleration into 2027.

  Ethridge argues that the infrastructure builders' cloud growth may not lead the market out of the next downshift. He thinks the next leaders are companies that have integrated AI into their own operations over the past 18 to 24 months. He expects the market to reaccelerate into 2027 once that return on investment shows up.

  “Maybe we're moving to where the companies that have been able to integrate AI into themselves for the last twenty four months... And that's where you see the market start to reaccelerate into 2027.”at 19:53

US rates & the Fed

• Sonali Basak · iCapital

  Fed pause is a coin toss; another hike could make a soft landing hard amid AI capex.

  Basak says the central bank may pause at its meeting in days, and she views that as roughly a coin toss. She argues that one more hike in December would make it hard for the Fed to engineer a softer landing, since AI capex buildout may be constrained by financing costs. This makes the growth outlook more fragile as AI spending may slow.

  “It's about a coin toss in our minds. And if you look at even one more hike in December, then the question is, to me at least, can the central bank really engineer a softer landing when we know that some of the AI CapEx build out here might be constrained.”at 44:55