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Tobin Marcus: latest market views
Wolfe Research
Summary
Tobin Marcus is Head of US Policy and Politics at Wolfe Research, covering the market implications of policy on taxes, trade, healthcare, energy and regulation, and previously worked at Evercore ISI, the Benenson Strategy Group and as an economic policy advisor in the Obama/Biden White House.
Chorus has 6 views from Tobin Marcus across 2 episodes on CNBC Power Lunch and Bloomberg Surveillance since November 3, 2026.
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Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Trump stays influential; Congress is more likely to produce less legislation than more.
Trump remains powerful over Republicans because primary challenges are the main threat to members of Congress, so he will not become a diminished lame duck. Any Congressional deal will need bipartisan support, which is hard in an acrimonious environment. Major legislation will probably require a forcing event or leverage, so Marcus expects less action rather than more.
“I would bet on less rather than more action.”at 25:18
CNBC Power Lunch: Midterm Market Rally, Texas Data Center Fallout & Crypto Regulation ·
Next year's debt ceiling showdown is more likely than Q1 goodwill to produce a health care deal.
Big legislative outcomes need a forcing event or leverage, and the debt ceiling is that event. Marcus says the debt ceiling showdown is more likely to produce a health care deal than both parties negotiating in good faith early in the year. Democrats want to roll back the health care cuts in the big bill, which Trump opposes.
“So we are quite focused on the debt ceiling showdown next year. I think that's more likely to generate a healthcare deal than both parties just sort of sitting down in a spirit of goodwill in Q1.”at 25:31
CNBC Power Lunch: Midterm Market Rally, Texas Data Center Fallout & Crypto Regulation ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Data center build pace will hold; states want conditions, not bans, and enough projects are queued.
Marcus is relatively sanguine about data center activity, despite governors who won last night proposing moratoria. Even the strongest critics want conditions on water, power, labour and tax breaks, not a ban. He expects a market-clearing price to sweeten projects enough for communities to say yes. Permitting may slow for a time, but the project queue is large enough to absorb it.
“I'm relatively sanguine about what's gonna happen to the actual pace of activity on the data center side.”at 26:09
CNBC Power Lunch: Midterm Market Rally, Texas Data Center Fallout & Crypto Regulation ·
Polls likely overstate Democratic strength, especially in redder states, so the error should favour Republicans.
Tobin says big generic-ballot leads tend not to fully translate into results. More troublingly, Democratic gains from 2024 to 2026 have been much larger in redder places. That looks like the pattern of past polling errors in 2018 and 2022, when Democrats were overestimated most in redder areas. He thinks the error is clearly going to run in that direction, and the question is whether its size can overcome Democrats' current polling margins in key red states. Wolfe is not making the claim that polls always overstate Democrats; in 2022 it argued the opposite.
“And then I think more troublingly, we have this very clear pattern where the blue shifts from 2024 to '26 have been much bigger in redder places, which looks a lot like the pattern of past polling error.”at 15:58
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 3rd, 2026 ·
Sports, betting & prediction markets
Prediction markets have followed polls this cycle, so they are not a better signal and were wrong too.
Tobin argues it is not possible this cycle to set polling aside and rely on betting markets, because they have followed polling closely at both the national and race level. When polls were very wrong, betting markets were wrong in the same way. The example is the Wisconsin Democratic governor race: Francesca Hong was a weak candidate yet was 95%-plus to win on the eve of the vote, then lost after a 15-point polling miss. Brazil also had huge misses. He says sophisticated betting participants should have sniffed out the weak candidate and the possible polling miss, but they did not.
“So I don't really think that it's possible this cycle to look at the betting markets and say, put the polling aside because they have just so strongly followed polling all cycle long.”at 17:27
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 3rd, 2026 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Data-center rules will tighten gradually; a Texas loss by Abbott would be the real market risk.
Tobin says investors are talking about data center regulation a lot, but there is not much portfolio positioning yet. If Governor Abbott loses in Texas, he thinks that is the potentially material setback everyone in the trade has circled. Ohio is moving in a more restrictive direction, but most states can absorb the shift. Even the most strident critics want to build under conditions, not not at all. The impacts fall further in the future, and anything with shovels in the ground will not be affected right now. He is more worried about the data center trade being spooked if it is overextended.
“If governor Abbott loses in Texas, I think that's the thing that pretty much everyone involved in this trade has circled as a potentially really material setback that could spook markets.”at 18:35
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 3rd, 2026 ·
Shows
- CNBC Power Lunch · 1 episode
- Bloomberg Surveillance · 1 episode
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