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Shane Lieberman: latest market views
UBS
Summary
Executive Director and Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor at UBS (Governmental Affairs US), who briefs clients and the firm's Chief Investment Office on Washington policy, elections, and geopolitics and their market implications.
Chorus has 8 views from Shane Lieberman across 3 episodes on UBS On-Air since October 13, 2026.
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Democratic midterm gains beat UBS expectations, with Jeffries freer from his party's extreme wing.
Lieberman says Democrats won majorities in both chambers, which exceeded UBS expectations, since they had expected a Senate high-water mark of 53 seats. Democrats are on track for about 230 House seats with possibly 20 more, enough to elect Hakeem Jeffries speaker. Jeffries may therefore not need to bend to the extreme views in his party to pass legislation through the House.
“I mean, I think this was above our expectations. We were kinda thinking that the senate high watermark for the Democrats would be 53.”at 2:31
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning ·
Congress will likely punt many year-end items, including government funding, into a busy Q1 2027.
Government funding expires on December 11, alongside the farm bill, the highway transportation bill and other issues. Senate Republicans will likely push a large package of nominations. Lieberman expects incoming Democrats to ask that many items be deferred, so Q1 2027 will be very busy with government funding, the highway bill and possibly a bipartisan permitting bill.
“On December 11, you have government funding expiring as well as a farm bill and a highway transportation bill, and a number of other issues, that will take priority... I think you'll see a lot of incoming Democrats say, Hey, kick the can down the road because we want to be part of the eventual solution.”at 10:41
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning ·
Congress is nervous about AI and wants to avoid looking hands-off while keeping US leadership over China.
Lieberman says many members of Congress are nervous about AI and do not want to be seen as uninvolved or too hands-off. They recognise that it is a US versus China contest in which the US needs to lead. The challenge is to support that leadership while adding safeguards for local communities, which he expects to be topical in the coming weeks and months.
“there is a lot of nervousness from members of congress. They don't want to be seen as not, being involved and too hands off.”at 12:11
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning ·
House very likely to flip to Democrats, based on campaign money moving between races.
Polls are tightening, but Lieberman treats campaign money as a better signal than polls for races without polling. Money is moving away from seats where Republicans hoped to pick up or defend close races toward seats where Republicans were expected to win but need extra support. A major Republican super PAC stopped spending in a New Jersey race with a Republican incumbent, which he reads as a sign the Republican is expected to lose. That race moved from toss-up to lean Democratic. He concludes the House is very likely to go to Democrats, with the Senate less clear.
“So all of that is, at least for the House, definitely showing that the house is very likely to go to the democrats.”at 3:01
UBS On-Air: Washington Weekly Podcast: Election Day countdown, Geopolitics, Fraud awareness ·
Senate control remains cloudy as Senate races tighten to statistical ties.
Lieberman says the Senate is harder to call than the House. Michigan's Senate race is a genuine toss-up, with nearly every poll inside the margin of error. In Texas, a Democratic candidate who had recently held a wider lead is now in a near statistical tie in the latest polls. Money has also moved away from North Carolina, which Democrats had slated as a pickup for weeks or months. He describes the Senate as tightening, so control is uncertain.
“I think it's tightening in the senate”at 3:37
UBS On-Air: Washington Weekly Podcast: Election Day countdown, Geopolitics, Fraud awareness ·
US pressure on Ukraine to join talks will weaken Ukraine's negotiating position.
Lieberman reads the recent US moves as tilting toward Russia while pressuring Ukraine. Congress passed a tough Russia sanctions bill, but President Trump waived part of it. Steve Witkoff's Russia trip led to the release of a US citizen held for four years, and the US waived sanctions on Russian diesel. Meanwhile Trump took a hard line on Zelenskyy, and Starlink, which is critical to Ukraine's missile defence, went down before Russian missile attacks on Kyiv. He sees this as pressure on both sides to return to peace talks, and says Ukraine's stance will be weaker in those negotiations because of that pressure. Peace talks are expected in the coming weeks and months.
“I think there is concern about... the pressure on Ukraine to come to the table is also meaning that Ukraine will be weakened in a negotiating stance.”at 6:20
UBS On-Air: Washington Weekly Podcast: Election Day countdown, Geopolitics, Fraud awareness ·
Over 160 statewide ballot measures, including a California wealth tax, signal future federal policy direction.
Shane argues that state-level policy matters beyond the states. There are over 160 statewide ballot measures across the country, and some are significant, such as a proposed wealth tax in California. Shane says states can act as laboratories and that UBS pays attention to these measures to see what signals they send for future federal policy. Across the states, roughly 6,000 legislative seats, about three dozen governorships and about 30 attorney general races are also up for election, and 19 governor races are open seats.
“I'm actually also quite interested in that there are over a 160 statewide ballot measures on ballots across the country, and some of them are really noteworthy like this wealth tax California.”at 6:15
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Watch - Foreign capital, state capitals ·
Democrats will likely flip North Carolina, leaving Republicans with a 52-48 Senate advantage.
Shane sees Democrats picking up North Carolina almost immediately, which leaves a 52-48 Republican advantage in the Senate. Democrats are mainly on defense in Michigan and New Hampshire, with Minnesota a third race to watch. Republicans are playing more defense than Democrats, and Democrats are on offense in states such as Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to control the Senate. Shane also notes that Alaska's ranked-choice system could delay the outcome if the race comes down to it.
“I think Dems are gonna pick up North Carolina pretty much off the bat, and that leaves a 52 to 48 advantage for Republicans.”at 8:04
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Watch - Foreign capital, state capitals ·
Shows
- UBS On-Air · 3 episodes
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