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Patrick McHenry: latest market views
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Summary
Patrick McHenry is a former Republican congressman from North Carolina who chaired the House Financial Services Committee from 2023 to 2025 and briefly served as Speaker pro tempore in 2023, and is now a senior advisor at Lazard with advisory roles at a16z, Stripe and Ondo Finance.
Chorus has 7 views from Patrick McHenry across 3 episodes on Bloomberg Surveillance and Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) since November 4, 2026.
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This midterm is historic, comparable to 1994 or 1974, and will be seen as one of the major midterms.
McHenry rates the 2026 midterm alongside 1994 and 1974. He points to the incoming class being built around repudiating Republicans and to North Carolina Democrats winning congressional races with little money and no message beyond offering voters a choice. He argues the incoming House majority is further left than the moderate senators elected in competitive states.
“This was historic, and I I rate this midterm like 1994 or 1974. This will be noted as one of the major big midterms in American history.”at 24:58
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Across the Aisle in 2027: Working with Rep. Jim Jordan 11/11/26 ·
Democrats must focus 80% on affordability and 20% on investigations, or they lose in 2028.
McHenry says a Democratic House that spends about 80% of its message on improving Americans' economic lives and 20% on investigations can hold Trump accountable while winning voters. If the balance flips to 80% investigations and 20% affordability, he expects Democrats to return to the minority and be poorly positioned for the 2028 presidential cycle.
“If that's the balance, that's gonna be a winning message. ... But if they if they flip this and it's 80% investigations and 20% affordability, they're gonna be back to the minority”at 26:37
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Across the Aisle in 2027: Working with Rep. Jim Jordan 11/11/26 ·
Inflation outpacing wage growth drove voter anger and the midterm result, as it does everywhere it runs high.
McHenry argues the election was fundamentally about economic performance and wages being outstripped by inflation. He says that wherever significant inflation appears, people turn against their government, and that this, plus the sense that Washington got rich while Americans fell behind, drove the midterm outcome.
“This election was about economic performance and wage growth being outstripped by inflation. Everywhere in the world where we see significant inflation, the people hate their government”at 27:24
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Across the Aisle in 2027: Working with Rep. Jim Jordan 11/11/26 ·
Jim Jordan's election as House GOP leader signals Republicans chose to fight and reflects a matured leader.
McHenry says Republicans chose Jordan over Steve Scalise because they needed an aggressive leader to win back the majority in a tough environment. He says Jordan has matured since the October 2023 speaker fight, when colleagues denied him the speakership, and that his large margin shows he is now far more in touch with House Republicans. Pairing Jordan with Stephen Miller, McHenry argues, signals that Republicans are prepared to fight.
“What the Republicans indicate, in choosing Jim Jordan is they wanna fight. What, president Trump indicated by choosing his longest and, most loyal, staffer, Stephen Miller is that they're prepared to fight.”at 28:24
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Across the Aisle in 2027: Working with Rep. Jim Jordan 11/11/26 ·
Expects a continuing resolution with no defense increase, and the NDAA signed by Christmas.
McHenry says the president is asking for a trillion-and-a-half of new defense spending, but the government operates under a continuing resolution that expires December 11. Because the House and Senate are fractured after the election, he expects a continuing resolution with no defense increase. The NDAA, which has passed every year since Truman, is largely bipartisan and limited in nature, so he expects it to be signed barely by Christmas.
“You'll not see a defense plus up, but you'll see the defense policy NDAA bill get signed into law barely by Christmas because much of that can be bipartisan and limited in nature.”at 9:50
Trump still dominates the GOP, but the MAGA coalition fragmented and Republicans need to win back voters.
McHenry says Trump still has mastery over the Republican Party and is one of the most popular Republican presidents within the party, even though he is unpopular with the electorate. The MAGA coalition, however, was fragmented. McHenry says part of it stayed home because immigration enforcement focus inflamed the Hispanic community that had voted for Trump in key states like Texas, and part of it simply did not show up. He asks whether those voters are done with voting Republican.
“Part of it got fragmented because of the focus on illegal immigration... which inflamed the Hispanic community that voted in president Trump in key states like Texas. They stayed home.”at 11:16
Lame-duck Congress will likely prioritize the NDAA, a stopgap CR, and permitting reform; shutdown fights may return next year.
McHenry, a former House Financial Services chair, expects a dejected Republican majority to scale back its lame-duck agenda. He says the priorities will be the National Defense Authorization Act, a continuing resolution to keep the government open into next year, and possibly a permitting reform bill. He notes the 2025 fight with Democrats and Trump produced the largest government shutdown in US history and expects more shutdown fighting next year.
“I think they'll prioritize a continuing resolution to punt this into keeping the government open into next year. ... So I think we're gonna see more of that next year”at 4:11
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: Democrats Sweep to Control of Congress in Rebuke of Trump ·
Shows
- Bloomberg Surveillance · 2 episodes
- Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) · 1 episode
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