Natasha Sarin: latest market views

Summary

Natasha Sarin is a Professor of Law at Yale Law School, president and co-founder of The Budget Lab at Yale, a New York Times contributing columnist, and a former counselor to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Chorus has 5 views from Natasha Sarin across 2 episodes on Bloomberg Wall Street Week and Bloomberg Surveillance since October 30, 2026.

What they talk about most

• US tax & spending policy · 2
• US Treasuries & yields · 1
• US elections & politics · 1
• Wealth, inequality & billionaires · 1

The latest views

Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.

• US tax & spending policy

  Raising the corporate rate and curbing profit shifting could raise over $1 trillion

  Sarin, citing a paper co-written with Kim Clausing for the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, proposes raising the rate on the 2% most profitable companies, often multinationals, to 28% or maybe 30%. He pairs this with a Biden-era-style effort to stop profit shifting, since companies have a large incentive to book profits where tax rates are low. He says those two measures alone would raise over a trillion dollars. He adds that IRS enforcement has been weakened, with about 40% of the workforce depleted by DOGE and its aftermath, leaving roughly 3% of GDP (about $800 billion a year) owed but uncollected. Better tax administration could yield substantial revenue even at current rates.

  “For the 2% of the most profitable companies, often multinationals that operate across jurisdictions, you raise the rate somewhat to 28% or maybe 30%. ... Just those two things alone are gonna raise you over a trillion dollars.”at 39:23

  Bloomberg Wall Street Week: Affordability Crisis, Data Center Divide, Debt Hits Households, Capitalism on the Ballot · October 30, 2026

• US Treasuries & yields

  Rising yields can only be addressed by fiscal reform; yen intervention and bond buybacks are too small

  Sarin argues that recent interventions, the Japanese yen intervention and Treasury buybacks of some long-dated bonds, are not meaningful relative to the scale of the fiscal problem. Yields are rising, and the only real remedy is serious action on fiscal problems. He hopes the economic conditions now emerging will force debates that a low-rate environment let people avoid.

  “they're not, like, that meaningful on some level to the scale of the problem. Ultimately, the only thing you can do about the fact that yields are rising, rising, rising is think seriously about our fiscal problems.”at 40:58

  Bloomberg Wall Street Week: Affordability Crisis, Data Center Divide, Debt Hits Households, Capitalism on the Ballot · October 30, 2026

• Wealth, inequality & billionaires

  California's wealth tax ballot measure has problems; billionaire departures may make it a net negative for the state.

  Billionaires should pay more, but the measure targets about 250 billionaires and has problems already visible in practice. Figures like Sergey Brin and Larry Page are leaving the state, which costs the wealth-tax coffers and also the California income tax they would have paid. Estimates from Stanford's Josh Rao and co-authors suggest the tax could be a net negative for the state.

  “I speculate that while I'm incredibly sympathetic with the aim and billionaires absolutely should pay much more in taxes, this particular ballot measure has some problems that you're already seeing play out in practice.”at 30:28

  Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets Price in Tech Spending and Midterm Elections · October 30, 2026

• US elections & politics

  Quick affordability fixes like rent freezes won't solve structural housing and childcare costs.

  Cost of living is top of mind for voters across parties, as it was in 2024 when Trump won on inflation. She is nervous about politicians promising quick fixes like cutting prices on day one or freezing rents. Housing, childcare and elder care are structural problems that need long-term policy solutions.

  “I'm a little nervous about the idea that you have politicians who are trying to come up with quick fixes to affordability, things like cut prices on day one or rent freezes, when the reality is that things like housing, childcare, the cost of elder care in this country, all of these are structural issues...”at 31:58

  Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets Price in Tech Spending and Midterm Elections · October 30, 2026

• US tax & spending policy

  Raising corporate tax on the top 2% of multinationals could bring in hundreds of billions over a decade.

  The corporate tax rate fell from 35% to 21% in the last Trump administration, which gave companies more than they had asked for. Corporate income tax has fallen to well under 2% of GDP. The rate can stay in place for 98% of companies, and a better tax on the largest, most profitable multinationals can raise hundreds of billions over the next decade.

  “We definitely a thousand percent can, and it's just about the top 2% of the most profitable largest multinationals you can raise on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars over the course of the next decade.”at 34:19

  Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets Price in Tech Spending and Midterm Elections · October 30, 2026

Shows

• Bloomberg Wall Street Week · 1 episode
• Bloomberg Surveillance · 1 episode