Speaker · Updated
Mike Preston: latest market views
New Harbor Financial Group
Summary
Michael R. Preston, CFP®, is a founding principal, partner and co-manager of Worcester, MA-based New Harbor Financial Group, an active investment manager, and previously a financial advisor at UBS Financial Services.
Chorus has 14 views from Mike Preston across 2 episodes on Thoughtful Money since October 27, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on VanEck Gold Miners ETF.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- VanEck Gold Miners ETFBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
US equities are very overvalued, with the S&P 500 about three times long-term averages.
Mike's macro read is that US stock valuations are stretched. He says the S&P 500 is probably about three times long-term averages and that he has been making this point for years. He adds that the market is in a regime that almost has to persist, or the wider financial scheme starts to unravel. His fund is invested in equities and sets its risk levels from this macro view, which is why he is cutting exposure.
“...And there's no doubt that we're very, very overvalued. If we talk about the macro, we talked about that for years. We're probably three times long term averages on the S and P 500, but we're also in a regime or a realm that almost has to stay that way or the whole scheme worldwide kinda starts to fall apart.”at 1:13:23
Thoughtful Money: "Bad Things" To Happen As US Dollar Strengthens | Brent Johnson ·
Near-term bounce likely after the selloff, though a crash is possible; his fund is cutting equity exposure.
After a sharp one-day drop, Mike says he still expects some kind of bounce in the coming days, and he has not given up on the melt-up thesis. He is not ruling out a crash, and his fund has a plan for it. He is reducing exposure rather than adding, lowering equities to around 37.5% from about 42.5%. He points to support zones such as the Nasdaq's 200-day moving average and the S&P 200-day, and says the next few days will show whether they hold. He is also watching the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, which have broken through support, and the VIX, which has spiked into the high 20s.
“Are we gonna crash, or are we gonna have some kind of bounce in the coming days? I still think, believe it or not, we're likely to have some kind of bounce in the coming days.”at 1:25:23
Thoughtful Money: "Bad Things" To Happen As US Dollar Strengthens | Brent Johnson ·
Semiconductor chart has broken its trading range, possibly forming a head-and-shoulders top.
Mike says semis rallied, traded in a large range, and have now broken below the bottom of that range. He asks whether this is a big head-and-shoulders top, admits no one knows, and calls the chart pretty terrible. He thinks filling the gap in the next couple of days would be a positive sign. The view rests on chart pattern analysis rather than fundamentals.
“...That looks pretty bad. Right? Semis took off, had this big trading range, and now we've broken through the bottom. Is this a big head and shoulder top? No one knows. It looks pretty terrible.”at 1:26:19
Thoughtful Money: "Bad Things" To Happen As US Dollar Strengthens | Brent Johnson ·
Gold and silver have likely bottomed after a brutal selloff; a breakout above $4,400 would confirm it.
Mike says gold and silver have been through a brutal stretch, with silver down about 60% and gold about 30%, but he thinks there is a good chance the bottom is in. His evidence is technical: gold has rallied to its 50-day moving average, and daily bars show a gap down, three sideways days, and a gap up, which he calls an island reversal. He says gold needs to get above about $4,400 on spot to confirm the bottom and leave the summer lows behind. He is also not convinced that precious metals fall just because the stock market does, pointing to 1987, when gold rose during the crash. Fear and negativity have been extreme, and he believes the fundamentals are still there. His fund holds metals positions.
“It's been really, really brutal in gold and silver land, and I think there's a good chance we have seen the bottom.”at 1:38:06
Thoughtful Money: "Bad Things" To Happen As US Dollar Strengthens | Brent Johnson ·
VanEck Gold Miners ETFBullish
Gold miners could double from recent highs before the bull market ends.
Mike points to GDX's long monthly chart. It went from about 50 to more than double, then gave back nearly half of that move. He reads the current pattern as a large triangle on the monthly chart. A breakout in the coming year or two could lead to a powerful move, possibly a doubling. He admits there is no guarantee and says history is his basis. The gold miners did not make new lows even as gold and silver fell, which he takes as a possible positive divergence. His firm has precious metals and miners positions and agrees with the overweight.
“Mining stocks, I believe could still just go back to the multi chart here. It could very well double from recent highs before this bull market is over.”at 1:41:41
Thoughtful Money: "Bad Things" To Happen As US Dollar Strengthens | Brent Johnson ·
Market leadership rotating from tech to staples, financials and healthcare as Nasdaq breaks down.
Mike says the market has been narrow and tech-driven. New Harbor's system has been signaling a rotation, with consumer staples (XLP) in a big base and breakout, financials (XLF) having a strong day, and healthcare (XLV) becoming a new leader after lagging for a while. Staples are up about 3% while the Nasdaq falls about 3%. He is not sure these sectors can absorb the AI selling. His firm reduced equity exposure from 50% to about 39.5% and is waiting for confirmation before adding back.
“This is consumer staples. It's just a big base and then a big breakout. It's up like, 3% today when the Nasdaq's down 3% today.”at 1:04:08
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Semiconductors broke down, so the market can't make much upside progress.
Mike notes semiconductors had been bouncing between swing highs and lows. Over the last ten days they fell in a straight line, and he expected them to take out the swing high but they did not. Because technology is so central to the market's gains, he doesn't think the broader market can make much progress to the upside. He also doesn't expect a blow-off top, and he is watching whether the tech selling is a panic reaction or something that spreads.
“It looked to me like we were going to take out the swing high, but in the last ten days, we went from north to south in a straight line. So I don't really think that the market can have a lot of progress to the upside.”at 1:04:53
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Valuations are unsustainable and unlikely to support good index returns from these levels.
Mike says he believes valuations are not sustainable or consistent with good positive index returns from current levels. He still expects a possible thrust higher followed by exhaustion, but he says these valuations are the core reason he is cautious. His firm has cut exposure and will not guess at a top. It waits for confirmation before adding back.
“we do think that valuations are such that they're not sustainable or they're not congruent with good positive returns in the indices from these levels”at 1:05:57
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Market likely rallies after the midterms regardless of outcome, as uncertainty clears.
Mike says the midterm outcome could be part of why the market is uncertain now. He argues that once the election result is known, the market will probably like the outcome no matter what it is, because markets dislike uncertainty. That could set up the kind of pop he thinks may come.
“We've said on this program ... the market will probably like that no matter what the result is because the market doesn't like uncertainty.”at 1:06:53
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Oil stubbornly high; if it eases, it could catalyze a broader market bullish run.
Mike points to refiners in XLE, which hold Exxon and Chevron, hitting new highs while oil stays stubbornly high even as other commodities sell off. If oil comes off, that could become a catalyst. His firm is building energy exposure for a potential bullish run, though he notes such energy buildups can either launch a rally or accelerate a collapse.
“So if oil can come off, it could come down. That could be a catalyst ... we are building energy here for a potential bullish run.”at 1:07:35
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Precious metals pullback resembles 2008-09, likely followed by a thrust higher, not a 2011 top.
Mike says precious metals are in an eight-to-nine-month pullback from the January high, deeper and more tiring than expected. He compares it with the 2008-09 precious metals pullback, which lasted about the same time, with gold down about 35% and silver down about 50%. Those metals later doubled or more, reaching their 2011 high. He believes the current pullback is a 2008-09-type event that will be followed by a thrust higher, rather than a 2011-type top that marks a decade-long peak. He admits this is hard to hold and says he isn't recommending the ETFs he's showing.
“That's just a really big, [painful] pullback that's going to be followed by a thrust higher. I still believe it's a 2008, 2009 pullback versus a 2011 high”at 1:11:49
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Gold is probably bottoming after an eight-week drawdown; technical support levels are holding.
Mike reads the gold weekly chart as having broken a downtrend line and cleared a blue line that he considered important, and says the drop has moved through three waves lower. He had earlier thought July was the bottom and says it may still be. He calls the recent eight weeks of weakness an unexpected, painful consolidation, and he says critical support levels are being tested. He ties the view to the sentiment backdrop: negativity is widespread and bulls are struggling, which he reads as a sign of a bottom. He says his firm holds a metals position in its model that it can stick with, and that it sizes positions so clients aren't uncomfortable. The support is technical, with no fundamental data cited.
“So, I personally think that we're probably bottoming here and just creating a ton of negativity but it's hard to hold.”at 1:13:35
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Silver could rebound to $70-90 within three months if it reverses from current support.
Mike says silver broke a downtrend that had been in place for many weeks, which gave some relief. Its rally toward $70-75 then rolled over, and it is now at or near its low. He does not expect a waterfall decline, though he says anything could happen. He is conditional: if silver reverses out of this area, he thinks it can reload and move back to $70-90 in 30 to 90 days. His firm holds a metals position in its model. The forecast rests on technical reversal and chart support, not on fundamentals.
“I still think that if we can reverse out of here, we can load the energy again. I think that we could easily move back up to seventy to ninety silver even in the next thirty ninety days, three months.”at 1:15:09
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Bond rally may be bottoming after TLT jumped from 76 to 82; interest rates are falling hard.
Mike cites TLT, a long-term Treasury ETF, rising from 76 to 82 in just a few weeks. He says the daily chart has cleared the previous swing high and left the earlier downtrend behind. He says interest rates are coming down hard, though he is unsure whether the move is a bottom and says the jury is still out. He notes that metals have fallen whether rates rose or fell, so falling rates have not supported them. The view is tentative and rests on chart breakout, with no fundamental argument given.
“You know, TLT went from 76 to 82 in just a couple of weeks.”at 1:15:56
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Shows
- Thoughtful Money · 2 episodes
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