Speaker · Updated
Kristina Campmany: latest market views
Invesco
Summary
Kristina Campmany is a Senior Portfolio Manager on Invesco's Macro Alpha team, focusing on global rates and FX and co-managing the Global Strategic Income, International Bond and Flexible Income ETF strategies, after 12 years at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and a stint at OppenheimerFunds.
Chorus has 14 views from Kristina Campmany across 2 episodes on Bloomberg Surveillance since November 6, 2026.
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The 40-50bp Treasury rally from the peak looks overdone, driven by positioning and AI fears.
Yields drifted higher all year and peaked five or six weeks ago. Since then they have retraced 40-50 basis points across the curve. She thinks some of the move reflects positioning and some reflects fear about AI, but the underlying fundamentals have not changed much, so the rally feels overdone.
“we kind of got the peak five or six weeks ago, and for five or six weeks, we've retraced 40, 50 basis points... It feels a bit overdone. I think some of that was positioning.”at 21:42
Base case is a Fed hike in December; recession fears are overdone.
The Fed chair avoids forward guidance, but the rest of the committee is giving it, and the messaging changes meeting to meeting. Had the Fed signaled the hike ahead of the last inflation prints, it would have gone in October too. She is skeptical of the view that there are real recession fears and that AI is over, so the base case remains a December move.
“So I think there are people out there that think, like, there are real recession fears... We're a little skeptical of that. I think the base case is still that the Fed is going to go in December.”at 22:25
AI infrastructure & data centers
Cautious on hyperscaler bond issuance as massive 2027-29 capex questions the build-out pace.
CapEx has been the main driver of US growth this year. Investors are grappling with huge capex plans for 2027, 2028 and 2029, and the question is whether the debt pipeline changes the speed of the build-out. Her firm has been cautious on some hyperscaler issuance and so did not participate in the Meta offering, although deals are still being done.
“We have been a bit cautious on some of the hyperscaler issuance, so we were not involved.”at 23:09
Still negative on the dollar; broader weakness needs Asian currencies like the yen to join.
They remain a bit more negative on the dollar, but the dollar's decline has been challenged. Broader dollar weakness needs participation from Asia. They want to see Asian currencies resume their move lower, with the yen finally strengthening and Korea coming back to the table, before a broader FX rally is confirmed.
“we still are a bit more negative, the dollar, but that has been a bit challenged... I think you need to see Dollar Asia resume lower. So the likes of the yen finally participating and strengthening.”at 24:16
Europe offers more value than the US, though its underlying growth is weaker.
The rally in US assets has been led by the US more than the rest of the world, so they still see value in developed markets outside the US. Europe has more value, reflecting a weaker underlying growth system.
“We think Europe has probably more value. There's a kind of weaker underlying growth system.”at 24:51
Most cautious on credit because spreads are still historically tight.
Of the three levers in the portfolio, FX, rates and credit, credit is where they are most cautious. Spreads have widened somewhat but remain tight by historical standards, and that remains their bias.
“We've been the most cautious on credit just because of how historically tight we are. I think that still kind of remains our bias.”at 27:13
AI theme will not fade over the election or equity wobble; pace and implementation may change.
The AI theme is not going away because of the election or an equity wobble. The pace may slow and the way it is implemented may change, but the shift is visible in how their own jobs are changing over the last six months and is not stopping on a dime.
“the theme of AI is because of the election or because of a wobble in the equity markets, is not going away. Right? The pace may slow down, the way it's implemented may change”at 28:21
Yields have retraced 40–50bp from their peak; the bond selloff looks overdone.
Campmany says yields drifted higher across the board all year, peaking five or six weeks ago. Since then they have retraced 40 to 50 basis points at almost every point on the curve. She thinks this looks overdone, driven partly by positioning and partly by fear about AI, while the underlying fundamentals may not have changed much.
“we kind of got the peak five or six weeks ago. And for five or six weeks, we've retraced 40, 50 basis points... It feels a bit overdone. I think some of that was positioning.”at 17:11
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: US Adds 165,000 Jobs, Topping All Forecasts ·
Base case is a Fed rate hike in December, despite inconsistent Fed communication.
Campmany says the Fed's chair does not want to give forward guidance, while the rest of the committee does, and messaging has varied meeting to meeting. She notes the Fed did not hike in October, and says that without the communication it would have, the market should expect a hike in December. She is skeptical of recession fears and considers the December hike the base case.
“I think the base case is still that the Fed is going to go in December.”at 17:53
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: US Adds 165,000 Jobs, Topping All Forecasts ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Cautious on hyperscaler bond issuance; huge capex plans through 2029 raise questions about build-out speed.
Campmany says her firm has been cautious on some hyperscaler issuance, so it did not participate in the Meta deal. She notes the market is grappling with massive capex numbers projected out to 2027, 2028 and 2029, and asks whether this could change the speed of the build-out. She also argues that capex has been the driver of US growth this year.
“We have been a bit cautious on some of the hyperscaler issuance. So we were not involved. But I think the market is is also grappling with. There are these massive capex numbers out to twenty seven, twenty eight, twenty nine.”at 18:36
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: US Adds 165,000 Jobs, Topping All Forecasts ·
Still negative on the dollar; a broader weaker-dollar rally needs Asian currencies like the yen to strengthen.
Campmany says FX is trickier, but overall her firm remains more negative on the dollar, though the dollar has been challenged. She notes Asian currencies have not participated in dollar weakness, so she needs to see Asian currencies resume lower against the dollar before a broader FX rally, with the yen finally strengthening and Korea coming back to the table.
“I think you need to see Dollar Asia resume lower. So the likes of the yen finally participating and strengthening, Korea coming back to the table.”at 20:00
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: US Adds 165,000 Jobs, Topping All Forecasts ·
Europe has more value than the US; there is value in developed markets, though Europe's growth is weaker.
Campmany says the rally of 40 to 50 basis points has been led by the US more than the rest of the world, so she still sees value in some developed markets. She thinks Europe has more value, while acknowledging a weaker underlying growth backdrop.
“We do still think that there's value in some DM. We think Europe has probably more value. There's a kind of weaker underlying growth system.”at 20:19
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: US Adds 165,000 Jobs, Topping All Forecasts ·
Most cautious on credit because spreads are historically tight; investors are being choosy.
Campmany says credit spreads have moved but remain tight by historical standards. Her firm is being choosy, knowing a large pipeline of issuance is coming. Among its three levers of FX, credit and rates, it has been most cautious on credit because of how historically tight spreads are, and she says that bias still remains.
“We've been the most cautious on credit just because of how historically tight we are.”at 22:57
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: US Adds 165,000 Jobs, Topping All Forecasts ·
The AI theme is not going away despite election or equity wobbles; its pace may slow and implementation may change.
Campmany argues that the AI theme is not going away because of the election or an equity market wobble. She acknowledges the pace may slow and implementation may change. She points to her own firm, where how people's jobs have changed over the last six months shows that the shift is not stopping on a dime.
“the theme of AI is because of the election or because of a wobble in equity markets is not going away. Right? The pace may slow down. The way it's implemented may change.”at 24:04
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: US Adds 165,000 Jobs, Topping All Forecasts ·
Shows
- Bloomberg Surveillance · 2 episodes
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