Speaker · Updated
John Llodra: latest market views
New Harbor Financial Group
Summary
John Llodra, CFP®, is a founding principal, partner and co-manager of Worcester, MA-based New Harbor Financial Group, a hedged, rules-based investment manager, and previously a financial advisor at UBS Financial Services.
Chorus has 11 views from John Llodra across 2 episodes on Thoughtful Money since October 27, 2026. Their latest calls: bearish on CoreWeave.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Dashboard biases the market to drift or melt higher through year-end despite midterm-year averages.
New Harbor's dashboard, which reads breadth and buy-signal indicators, biases them to expect the market to drift or melt up through the end of the year. They put little weight on averages such as post-midterm-year seasonality, because averages hide wide dispersion and can be bucked in ways that hurt clients. They follow what the market is signalling rather than what history says on average.
“We do have a bias that the market probably drifts, if not melts up higher through the end of the year based upon where our dashboard is today.”at 16:32
Thoughtful Money: "There Are Lots Of Good Reasons The Market Should Crash" | New Harbor Financial ·
Semiconductor sentiment is washed out, with only about 12% of stocks on buy signals; a sharp rally is likely.
Only about 12% of semiconductor-sector stocks were on point-and-figure bullish-percent buy signals as of the prior day. At the extremes, that is a contrarian indicator: such washed-out sentiment typically comes before a very sharp short-term rally. Semiconductors were strong that day, and the bullish-percent chart had just reversed up, though one day is not a trend.
“And at the extremes, it can be a very contrarian indicator. So I look at here, for example, semiconductors. Only about 12% of stocks in the semiconductor sector were... on bullish percent buy signals.”at 17:34
Thoughtful Money: "There Are Lots Of Good Reasons The Market Should Crash" | New Harbor Financial ·
Tech is not dead after sharp rotation out of it; expect relief rally, so be cautious adding.
Information technology fell from up 31% year-to-date a month earlier to about 9.5%, a sharp reversal, and energy and staples rotated sharply too. New Harbor has been underweight tech for reasons they have discussed before. They say tech is not dead, so investors who are heavily in it may find a better exit in the coming days or weeks as a relief rally forms, while newcomers should be cautious entering. Their system is deliberately slower than these moves, to avoid being whipsawed.
“So we don't think the tech sector is dead. We think if you're be cautious entering some of these sectors if you're not already invested.”at 18:07
Thoughtful Money: "There Are Lots Of Good Reasons The Market Should Crash" | New Harbor Financial ·
The hot CPI is not a big shock; the market already priced in a December quarter-point hike.
The CPI report was a shock to many watchers, and a Fed governor's comment had also raised expectations. But CME Fed-funds probabilities show the market had generally priced at least one quarter-point hike at the December meeting. Since then, the chance of holding steady has gone to zero and the chance of a 50-basis-point hike has risen. John sees that as notable but not a huge shock, and not necessarily disruptive. Expectations for early-2027 hikes have also risen.
“I don't think it's a huge shock to the market because the market generally has been pricing in at least one rate hike, a quarter point rate hike at the December meeting.”at 22:55
Thoughtful Money: "There Are Lots Of Good Reasons The Market Should Crash" | New Harbor Financial ·
Fed hikes that quell inflation could let long-term yields fall rather than rise.
The Fed controls short rates, while long rates matter more for the economy and corporate refinancing. John argues there is a plausible line of logic: if the Fed raises short rates enough to remove worries about sticky inflation, the long end can rally and yields can fall. He says a point could come where this happens, possibly close to now, depending on how stern the Fed is about raising short rates. Oil is a wild card for inflation.
“there is a plausible line of logic that if the Fed raises short term rates enough to take away meaningful worries about sticky inflation, that the long end of the curve can actually rally in terms of rates coming down”at 23:28
Thoughtful Money: "There Are Lots Of Good Reasons The Market Should Crash" | New Harbor Financial ·
Valuations are extreme; a disruptive, downward-biased US market next year is materially likely.
New Harbor says valuations are incredibly extreme and that the market should crash at some point, and they do not think current levels are sustainable for long. Valuations are one reason among many. Sparks they flag include a large European bank selling a big portfolio of private credit loans in a panic, and tech, the sector that has drifted the market higher. If tech rallies to resistance and breadth falters underneath the surface, a cascade could follow. Late-stage topping processes, as in the tech and housing busts, feature swift sell-offs and face-ripping rallies that trap investors. Their indicator panel is meant to help them scale back risk and re-enter later.
“I think there's a very material likelihood we get a very disruptive, very volatile, very downward biased stock market next year for a lot of reasons. Valuations are just one.”at 25:51
Thoughtful Money: "There Are Lots Of Good Reasons The Market Should Crash" | New Harbor Financial ·
Heavy US debt will be inflated away, so precious metals are a longer-term hedge despite short-term bumps.
Citing Ray Dalio's study of empires, John says that when a reserve-currency power reaches the point where it cannot service its debt, it does not default but inflates the debt away. He agrees with the debt-devaluation logic behind gold's appeal. Short-term technicals in gold are ugly, but the longer-term backdrop makes precious metals an important hedge, even if the path is bumpy. His firm holds gold through its portfolio.
“You get to a point where you can't service that debt, and you don't default on it. You figure out a way to inflate it away. And that's exactly why we think longer term precious metals are going to be an important hedge, even if they're a bumpy one on shorter term timeframes.”at 52:31
Thoughtful Money: "There Are Lots Of Good Reasons The Market Should Crash" | New Harbor Financial ·
CoreWeaveBearish
Neoclouds like CoreWeave build on financing alone, lacking demand and profitability ties.
John says the AI build-out has the look and feel of neocloud companies such as CoreWeave. As long as financing is available, these firms keep building without a clear connection to real demand or profitability. He cites recent weakness in neoclouds as a possible early warning, and sees them as a sign of the spending risk he expects.
“As long as you get the financing, they're just going to keep building these things without any real kind of tie back to the real demand and the real profitability.”at 53:35
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI spending may mirror the telecom bubble, with a brick wall coming soon.
John compares AI spending to the 1990s internet equipment boom, which kept rising until it suddenly collapsed. He thinks the data may not show the turn until it is too late. He points to anecdotes of GPUs piling up in inventory, difficulties siting data centers, and build-outs that continue as long as financing is available, without a tie to real demand or profitability. He cites Meta's negative cash flow from heavy equipment spending that isn't yet monetized. He sees a real chance the spending hits a brick wall quickly.
“I think there's a real good chance that that part, which has shown no slowdown ... in the data that Craig looks at, hits a brick wall real quick”at 54:05
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Software has outperformed semiconductors recently, undercutting the AI-will-kill-SaaS narrative.
John notes that software was widely called a dead sector because AI would replace SaaS. Yet in the recent relative-strength data, software has performed better than semiconductors, which have weakened in recent weeks and months. He says it is far too early to call a turn in the cycle, but this is the kind of market action he watches for signs of a changing trend.
“software, which everybody called the dead sector because AI was going to replace all [SaaS] software, that's actually been performing recently relatively stronger than things like semiconductors”at 58:11
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
S&P 500 is about 50% tech and communications, so passive holders carry concentrated gains at risk.
John says the S&P 500 is about 50% weighted to technology and communications, so even passive indexers hold a large concentration in tech. He notes that high-flying tech stocks have been volatile recently and that some are beginning to show weakness. He says clients are increasingly concerned about large gains in concentrated holdings, and that this is creating a dilemma over whether to sell and realize capital gains. He says hedging is one option. The argument is that index concentration makes a tech pullback a broad portfolio risk.
“The S and P index is about 50% weighted to technology and communications.”at 1:21:33
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Shows
- Thoughtful Money · 2 episodes
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