Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 11/4/26

Apple

Across the shows: 48 speakers in other episodes, 57 bullish and 37 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBullish

  Apple benefits as a slower data center buildout could ease DRAM prices, its biggest cost driver.

  DRAM prices are the single biggest cause of Apple's price increases and are squeezing its gross margins. The midterm verdict against data center expansion could halt the endless DRAM price rises, since modern AI data centers hold large amounts of DRAM and projects being put on hold would cut that demand. A T-Mobile plan that cuts the $2,000 iPhone Duo to as low as $800 is another tailwind, since Apple gets its share either way. Cramer calls Apple the biggest beneficiary of this DRAM relief.

  “DRAM prices are the single biggest cause of Apple's price increases... Anything that slows down the data center build out means potentially lower DRAM prices”at 3:54

Microsoft

Across the shows: 40 speakers in other episodes, 46 bullish and 8 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBullish

  Microsoft benefits as fewer data centers lower build costs and it avoids boosting capital spending.

  Microsoft has chosen to live within its means and not boost capital spending. The market thinks fewer data centers will be built because of increased regulation, so the cost of a data center should fall in the coming years as fewer builders bid up prices. Cramer says that is terrific for Microsoft, which is why its stock rocketed 6.7% after the midterm results.

  “Microsoft cashes in because the market thinks at least today that there will be fewer data centers built because of increased regulation. That means it's likely that the cost of a data center will go down in the next few years”at 5:48

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 42 speakers in other episodes, 55 bullish and 10 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBullish

  Amazon benefits because investors expect it to stay capex-disciplined despite its data center ambitions.

  Amazon has said it is willing to spend beyond its cash flow to meet data center demand. After the midterm verdict, investors figure it can't spend beyond its means even if it wants to, because the public won't stand for it. Cramer says that discipline expectation is why Amazon rose 6.1% in the same election-driven rally as Microsoft.

  “Amazon benefits as well Because investors figure that it can't spend beyond its means, even if it wants to. The public won't stand for it.”at 5:48

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 81 speakers in other episodes, 23 bullish and 86 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBearish

  CoreWeave looks neutered as banks and private equity may refuse to finance speculative data centers.

  After the midterm verdict curbing data center expansion, DRAM makers and neoclouds seem neutered. CoreWeave, a neocloud, needs financing to keep building. Cramer asks what banks and private equity firms will back speculative data centers after the public's verdict, implying the capital needed will be hard to raise.

  “the neo clouds like [Nebius], [Iren] and [CoreWeave] seem neutered here. The latter three need financing. But what banks, what private equity firms are going to back spec data centers after the American people rendered their verdict?”at 7:05

IREN

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBearish

  Iren looks neutered as banks and private equity may refuse to finance speculative data centers.

  After the midterm verdict curbing data center expansion, DRAM makers and neoclouds seem neutered. Iren, a neocloud, needs financing to keep building. Cramer asks what banks and private equity firms will back speculative data centers after the public's verdict, implying the capital needed will be hard to raise.

  “the neo clouds like [Nebius], [Iren] and [CoreWeave] seem neutered here. The latter three need financing. But what banks, what private equity firms are going to back spec data centers after the American people rendered their verdict?”at 7:05

Nebius Group

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBearish

  Nebius looks neutered as banks and private equity may refuse to finance speculative data centers.

  After the midterm verdict curbing data center expansion, DRAM makers and neoclouds seem neutered. Neoclouds like Nebius need financing to keep building. Cramer asks what banks and private equity firms will back speculative data centers after the public's verdict, implying the capital needed to fund the buildout will be hard to raise.

  “the neo clouds like [Nebius], [Iren] and [CoreWeave] seem neutered here. The latter three need financing. But what banks, what private equity firms are going to back spec data centers after the American people rendered their verdict?”at 7:05

Advanced Micro Devices

Across the shows: 12 speakers in other episodes, 11 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBullish

  AMD is doing incredibly well despite its stock finishing flat after a huge earnings beat.

  AMD reported one of the greatest upside surprises Cramer has ever seen, and it was strong at the data center level. The stock still ended up only about 1% and spent much of the day in the red. Cramer acknowledges AMD's management flagged a double-digit decline in PC shipments next year, but he still thinks the company is doing incredibly well.

  “I also think AMD is doing incredibly well, and I doubt that Nvidia, which has been hammered relentlessly, is as bad as it seems.”at 7:33

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 72 speakers in other episodes, 67 bullish and 25 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBullish

  Nvidia is not as bad as its relentless selloff suggests; the market is overreacting.

  Investors are projecting the end of Nvidia's chip shortages, which had driven one of the largest stock gains in history, and the stock has fallen from $239 to $200, including a 6.5% decline that day. Cramer doubts Nvidia is as bad as that selloff implies. He does not detail the fundamentals behind the view.

  “I also think AMD is doing incredibly well, and I doubt that Nvidia, which has been hammered relentlessly, is as bad as it seems.”at 7:33

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBearish

  Archer Daniels Midland is a commodity company Cramer is not excited about; he would pass.

  Cramer says the stock has been a bridesmaid for ages, with no one able to think of a reason to buy it. He calls Archer Daniels Midland a commodity company, rejects management's claim that it is not, and says there are many other things moving that make more sense, so he is taking a pass.

  “It's a commodity company as far as I'm concerned. They'll tell you it's not. I think it is. I'm gonna say I'm gonna take a pass.”at 11:30

ArcBest

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBullish

  ArcBest has a differentiated, on-time service edge over rivals, so lowest-cost no longer wins.

  Cramer says trucking used to be a business where whoever had the lowest cost won, but that is no longer true. ArcBest is doing specific things around on-time delivery and what customers want, which gives it an edge over other trucking companies. He says that kind of differentiated offering is accessible to investors in a sector he otherwise sees as tough.

  “It's no longer like that. ArcBest is doing some specific things about on time, about what the customers want. So I think it's giving you an edge over the other guys.”at 18:10

McDonald's

Across the shows: 9 speakers in other episodes, 8 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBullish

  McDonald's turnaround is gaining traction; he still likes it and thinks the stock has bottomed.

  US comparable sales turned positive in September after value-focused interventions, digital offers and shifted marketing, and traffic trends continued into October. Management plans to build on this with entry-level value, loyalty offers and taste training. Cramer notes the stock was compelling on valuation near its lows and expects analysts to change their minds, though he says it's not a done deal and needs continued execution.

  “So I still like McDonald's. I'm glad I stuck with it. I think a lot of analysts are gonna change their mind based on October, and I think you're gonna get higher prices for the stock, and it looks like it bottomed.”at 29:20

Jersey Mike's Subs

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBullish

  Jersey Mike's business is good and improving; its drop was a sellers' misjudgment, so hold.

  Cramer says the stock's drop to the high teens was about sellers who did not seem to know what they had, not about the business. He says business is pretty good there and getting better, so he wants the caller to hold on to it.

  “Business is pretty good there and getting better. I want you to hold on to Jersey Mike's.”at 30:25

BigBear.ai Holdings

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBearish

  BigBear.ai is a poor pick because it loses a lot of money, despite new contracts and a NASA award.

  A caller argued that BigBear.ai's revenue and margins have exploded, it won over $225 million in new contracts since July, and a recent NASA contract puts it on the way to the moon. Cramer had been 'a little cavalier' about the company, but says he doesn't like it because its losses are large. He sets the contract news against that loss-making profile and stays negative.

  “I was a little cavalier with Big Bear. I just don't like those guys because you'd see they're losing a lot of money.”at 43:48

The TJX Companies

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBearish

  TJX's slump is unexplained and management's reassurances aren't enough, so Cramer may sell.

  His charitable trust has owned TJX for years, and it was a multi-year winner. This year the stock stumbled badly and fell from about $1.50 to $1.22 by mid-September. Management wouldn't explain why, though it said things were under control and getting better. Cramer no longer takes that on trust. He calls the recent rally to about $1.45 a 'fatuous' move driven by rates and oil theories, not fundamentals. He says he may sell some of the big position, or may reconsider after the upcoming report.

  “Frankly, we have no idea why because they wouldn't tell us. Management did promise that things were under control... I can't just take their word for it anymore. Not in this kind of market.”at 44:22

Capital One Financial

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Cramer · CNBCBullish

  Capital One's selloff on fears of a credit-card rate cap was overdone; the stock shouldn't have moved at all.

  Capital One fell as much as $8 intraday when the crowd decided Democrats would cap high credit-card interest rates. Cramer says the same fear appeared in January, when the president's temporary 10% cap on credit card rates failed. Buyers came in after an hour of free fall, lifting the stock about five points, and it finished down only $2. He argues the move shouldn't have happened at all, which implies the market overpriced the policy risk to a high-rate card business.

  “Now let's talk about the other direction, Capital One... saw its stock plummet $8 at one point today as the crowd decided the democrats would cap rates... I would argue that it shouldn't have moved at all.”at 45:56

US elections & politics

• Jim Cramer · CNBC

  Midterm results did not upend the business cycle; rates, Fed, profits and AI investment matter more.

  Citing JPMorgan's Michael Semblis, Cramer says the midterm elections did not upend the business cycle. The most important market components, including ten-year interest rates, commodity prices, Fed policy, corporate profits, budget deficits, defense spending and the pace of AI investment over the next twelve months, are things midterms do not affect.

  “the most important market components are things that midterms do not affect. Ten year interest rates, commodity prices, Fed policy, corporate profits, budget deficits, defense spending”at 7:36

Consumer & retail

• Jim Cramer · CNBC

  Fragrance is one of the most overpriced categories; e.l.f. could repeat its cosmetics pricing playbook.

  Cramer recalls e.l.f. told him years ago that cosmetics were overpriced, and says e.l.f.'s sourcing advantage has only improved. He calls fragrance one of the most overpriced categories ever and asks whether e.l.f. will do to fragrance what it did to cosmetics. The CEO responded that delivering superior value is the objective.

  “I think fragrance is one of the most overpriced categories ever. Are you gonna do the same thing to what you did to cosmetics, to fragrance?”at 36:21

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Jim Cramer · CNBC

  ETF buying and trading-firm baskets now create outsized single-stock moves that can reverse quickly.

  Cramer cites moves that look unrelated to news: McDonald's up 6.5% on a slightly better-than-expected US comps number, Starbucks up nearly 5% on no news, and TGS up more than 5% on nothing. He attributes these to rapid-fire buying through ETFs, which he says now routinely dominate trading, and to impromptu baskets of stocks set up by trading firms. The result is huge moves that can be reversed in a nanosecond. He thinks individuals can't beat these machines and large hedge funds.

  “When you have rapid fire buying, both through ETFs, which often routinely dominate trading now, and through impromptu baskets of stocks set up by trading firms, you get these ridiculously large moves that can be repealed in a nanosecond.”at 44:40

US stock market outlook

• Jim Cramer · CNBC

  Today's broad rally ran far ahead of fundamentals, and for many stocks it may have been the peak.

  Cramer says the index moves were extraordinary, but he finds it hard to justify almost any of the biggest individual swings on fundamentals. He calls the market 'silly' and says the prices are fanciful, since valuations don't change because of a pleasant story. He says today may be the start of a huge move, or the start and end of one. For many stocks he fears it was the end, which makes him skeptical of the rally's staying power.

  “I found it hard to justify almost any of the biggest swings based on the actual fundamentals... Maybe today is the beginning of a huge move, or maybe today was the beginning and end of a huge move. For many stocks, I fear it was the latter.”at 46:48