Admiral James Stavridis Talks Iran War, Nvidia National Security, & New Book

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 78 speakers in other episodes, 65 bullish and 29 bearish calls, past 30 days

• James Stavridis · The Carlyle GroupUncertain

  Nvidia's CEO relationship is a national security issue; its board needs an outside review.

  Stavridis argues the reported relationship between Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang and a woman whose company allegedly moved chips through a Singapore shell company to China is a serious national security matter. He compares it to a high-ranking WWII American leader having an affair with someone from an adversary, and says the situation is sensitive because of the company's central role in the US-China tech rivalry. He expects the board to act quickly and bring in outside eyes to make hard decisions, and he expects Congress to get involved. He says the facts as reported may not be accurate and that officials should examine what was briefed and what the company discussed. He argues investors should watch the board's role and knowledge.

  “We should take it very seriously. ... So very serious on its face. And then add into that the incredible sensitivity of the company itself. ... I don't envy the board of directors there. They're gonna have to move with real alacrity, get an outside set of eyes on this and make some, I think, hard decisions.”at 2:11

US–China relations

• James Stavridis · The Carlyle Group

  US and China are on the edge of a cold war; the US should bend the relationship but not break it.

  Stavridis says the US-China rivalry is much larger than tech. It includes a long-running shadowy cyber conflict, Chinese claims in the South China Sea, Taiwan, fentanyl, competition for strategic minerals, and trade and tariff disputes. The key task is to avoid sliding into a full cold war or a hot war. He says the answer is dialogue, engagement and setting boundaries. He argues the US needs to bend the relationship on these topics without breaking it altogether.

  “The key is how do we avoid stumbling further into a full blown cold war or God forbid, a hot war? And the short answer there is dialogue, engagement, set boundaries. ... we need to kind of bend the relationship with China on some of the topics I just mentioned. We need to avoid breaking it altogether.”at 3:27

Middle East & Iran

• James Stavridis · The Carlyle Group

  Cautiously optimistic the US can reach an Iran deal after midterm losses, though strikes may come first.

  Stavridis argues that after the midterm defeat, the administration has domestic constraints because control of the House and Senate has passed to the opposing party. Historically, administrations in that position look abroad for foreign policy wins. He therefore thinks it is quite likely the administration will work hard for an agreement with Iran, and he also expects it to push harder on Ukraine. He is cautiously optimistic about a deal, stressing caution. He adds that President Trump may need to escalate with a few more strikes to negotiate.

  “There's a tendency on the part of any administration to look outside The United States into foreign policy, look for some areas where they can achieve some wins. ... I think it's quite likely that they will work very hard to get to an agreement. ... I'm cautiously optimistic, emphasis on caution ... that we can get to a deal.”at 7:29

Defense

• James Stavridis · The Carlyle Group

  The US industrial base needs a makeover to produce weapons faster, a lesson from World War II.

  Stavridis draws three lessons from the World War II Pacific campaign in his novel. The first is the wartime unity that the US needs to rebuild. The second is that the Pacific war was the ultimate high-tech war, involving carriers and drones such as kamikazes. The third is that the US industrial base needs a makeover. He gives no quantitative evidence for the industrial claim.

  “The US industrial base needs a makeover.”at 9:17