Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 22nd, 2026

Lam Research

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge WealthBearish

  Lam Research breaking below its 200-day moving average signals more volatility and pain ahead.

  Lam Research is breaking below its 200-day moving average this morning. Cameron reads this as part of a broader breakdown in AI-infrastructure leaders that have been among the weakest names recently. He says this suggests potentially more volatility and pain to come, though tactical rallies remain possible within the downtrend. The argument rests on the technical break rather than fundamentals.

  “if you look at a name like Lam Research this morning, it's breaking below its two hundred day moving average, and that just suggests that there's potentially more volatility and pain to come.”at 3:51

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Torsten Slok · Apollo Global Management

  AI spending adds about one percentage point to US growth, making data center buildout a critical GDP driver.

  Normal US growth is about 2%, and AI spending now contributes about one percentage point of it. The data center and associated energy buildout has contributed heavily to GDP growth, and consensus expects about 4% quarter-over-quarter annualized growth over the next 18 months. Because of this, the AI trade is now central to economic forecasting. If the buildout is delayed, the GDP outlook would also weaken. Talk in energy circles suggests only 25 to 50% of planned data centers may ultimately be built because of power constraints.

  “growth normally is 2% and now one percentage point of growth is coming from AI spending.”at 13:51

• Torsten Slok · Apollo Global Management

  Credit spreads on AI names, including data center bonds and neoclouds, are widening and now matter for AI financing.

  AI is not rate-sensitive, but yields and credit spreads on many AI-linked borrowers have widened substantially. Data center bonds are trading down and neoclouds are trading wider. The concern is that credit markets are beginning to question the economics of AI, particularly for hyperscalers. Investors are asking where the payoff is for the S&P 493. Productivity gains outside the Magnificent Seven are not yet visible. This credit pressure could curtail AI issuance and spending plans by more than currently projected.

  “spreads on a lot of different things in AI have widened out now, where they are absolutely beginning to matter. That's why a lot of data center bonds are trading down, that's why of course the neo cloud is trading wider.”at 15:24

• Torsten Slok · Apollo Global Management

  Bipartisan voter hostility and state moratoria threaten data center buildout, a risk that could persist after the midterms.

  Local ballot measures and city moratorium proposals on data centers are emerging. Torsten says the risks include moratoriums, pauses and audits in several states. Both Democratic and Republican voters are generally unhappy with data centers. The key question is what happens after the midterm elections, because opposition could continue or ease. Economists at his firm spend time on the post-midterm political outlook for data center build-out.

  “the risks are, of course, that there is a moratorium, there is a pause, there's an audit in a number of states... both democrat and republican voters are generally not happy with data centers.”at 17:23

AI chips & semiconductors

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Chip earnings growth is peaking in 2027, with margins normalizing and multiples compressing; stocks likely peak before adoption.

  Semiconductor index earnings are expected to grow over 100% this year, slowing to about 50% in 2027. Sector EBIT margin jumped from 16% to 42% on operating leverage, and the street expects further expansion. New Micron capacity coming online in mid-2027 and 2028 raises doubt that margins like Micron's 85% gross margin can be sustained. Chips trade at about 17.5x forward earnings. Multiple compression while earnings still rise would signal the market sees 2027 as peak earnings and doubts 2028 earnings power. Stocks likely peak before AI adoption does. Tactical rallies of 20-40% are still possible within the downtrend.

  “So if you see a breakdown further in these stocks, more multiple compression as earnings continue to rise, it suggests that the market is saying that this is peak, '27 is peak, and that you're raising questions about the earnings power in '28.”at 4:12

Earnings & corporate profits

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Tech earnings upgrades are what insulate equities from macro shocks; if upgrades stall, that protection fades.

  Tech has insulated the market from rising rates and an energy shock because earnings estimates have been revised higher, by about 17% through the year. In 2022, by contrast, estimates were cut in the face of similar macro shocks. Cameron stresses that the change in estimates matters more than growth itself, so growth must accelerate further to drive equity upside. If tech stops raising estimates, the sector stops protecting the rest of the market from macro headwinds.

  “if you start to get to a point where you're no longer raising tech estimates, and it's really important, it's the delta of the estimates moving higher, not just the fact that growth strong.”at 7:00

US stock market outlook

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Recent breadth gains reflect a defensive rotation, not healthy broadening; cyclicals are sitting out.

  The equal-weight S&P 500 broadening looks encouraging, but the rally has come from defensive areas such as utilities, staples and insurers. Banks, industrials and other cyclicals are not participating. Discretionary is up about 6% this month, though that is driven largely by Amazon and Tesla. Cameron says the improvement should not be celebrated because it reflects a rotation into safety, not renewed growth conviction. Equal-weight discretionary versus staples is starting to wobble.

  “we really shouldn't be celebrating an improvement in breadth driven by a rotation into defensives because you're not seeing it out of industrials. You're not seeing it out of banks.”at 8:22

US consumer

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Households hold more wealth in equities than homes, so a prolonged equity selloff would hit consumption.

  Households now hold more of their wealth in equities than in their homes, which makes consumption highly sensitive to stock market moves. A prolonged equity sell-off or more volatility would therefore hit consumer spending. Cameron notes a strong correlation between retail sales and the Nasdaq in the early 2000s. Household consumption forecasts for GDP have risen despite the oil shock, but the equal-weight discretionary-to-staples ratio is the signal to watch for consumer concern.

  “households have more of their wealth in equities today than they do in their homes, which means that household consumption is incredibly sensitive to the vagaries of the equity market.”at 9:19

US rates & the Fed

• Torsten Slok · Apollo Global Management

  Fed should hike at the October meeting; holding now means catch-up hikes likely in December and 2027.

  Under the Fed's dual mandate, the labor market is strong, with ADP and weekly claims data improving, job openings rising and payrolls generally solid. Inflation was an ugly print that broadened across categories. Both parts of the dual mandate point to a hike, possibly at the next meeting. A Richmond Fed survey found 80% of businesses say monetary policy is not restrictive for their capex decisions. Torsten says it is unusual for the Fed to pause, so there is likely catch-up tightening later, especially into December and 2027.

  “Inflation, it was a truly ugly number that we got. It was broadening out to a number of categories... both these two parts of the dual mandate would say, of course, the Fed should even be hiking next week.”at 17:58