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What investors are saying about LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.PA)
Summary
In the past 30 days, 7 people on 6 investor and market shows discussed LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.PA) in 12 views. Going by each speaker's latest call, 4 are bearish and 2 are bullish. Chorus has followed LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton since October 8, 2026.
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Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / WealthionBearish
Aspirational luxury has rolled as prices got too high; the luxury trade is breaking.
Feldman says the expectation that the middle class would keep buying luxury goods without limit has broken. Prices reached points like a $90,000 Chanel skirt, and buyers lost the thrill. He argues luxury demand is tied to the wealth effect, so it will roll over when stock portfolios fall, and the luxury sector has already started rolling.
“It turns out that it got too expensive when you have to buy a Chanel skirt for $90,000.”at 24:08
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Vincent Deluard · StoneXBullish
LVMH's multiple has halved despite good fundamentals; could make money eventually but won't rush.
French luxury names have been de-rated, and LVMH's multiple has roughly halved. Fundamentals remain good, with high margins and a good-quality balance sheet. He thinks that at some point investors could make money on the valuation reset. He would not rush to trade and sees this as a patient way to deploy capital, though eurozone debt stress limits how well European equities can perform overall.
“looking at French luxury, for example, like the multiple on your Hermes or [LVMH], I mean, halved. And they're still pretty good business fundamentally”at 42:39
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Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bullish
He would rather own Louis Vuitton than Gucci-heavy luxury names as the sector weakens.
Grasso says luxury is weak across the board, and that Gucci is about half of Kering's revenue, so Kering is exposed to the slump. Ralph Lauren is performing, but not at the level of Gucci. He says he would rather hold Louis Vuitton because it gives a better portfolio position within the bifurcated, K-shaped consumer market.
“I'd rather, if I could, be in Louis Vuitton. So I think a better portfolio.”at 41:29
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Dana Telsey · Telsey Advisory GroupBearish
LVMH's fashion and leather goods missed on weak Chinese demand, down mid-teens, a key headwind.
Fashion and leather goods, about 45% of the business, came in weaker than expected. Telsey attributes this to Chinese consumer demand, which fell in the mid-teens. Other segments such as Sephora and jewelry were doing well.
“fashion and leather goods, which is 45% of the business, was weaker than expected. Why? China. Chinese consumer demand was weaker. It was down mid teens.”at 20:05
Bloomberg Surveillance: Inflation and Bonds Amid AI Concerns ·
Robert Frank · CNBCUncertain
LVMH's China weakness is a single-brand, single-country problem that may stabilise after the Louis Vuitton boycott fades.
LVMH's third-quarter sales grew 1%, but fashion and leather goods, the key metric, fell 5%, well below expectations. Analysts tie the drop to a Chinese consumer boycott of Louis Vuitton after a legal fight with a tea chain that used a similar logo. Elsewhere the company held up: watches and jewellery were strong, wine and spirits rose 6%, Sephora was up 8%, and the US grew 4%. Frank calls the problem weakness in one brand in one country for a group with 75 brands. He hopes things stabilise once the boycott fades and the fourth quarter improves, and that wealthy buyers in the US will offset weak China demand. He treats the outlook as uncertain.
“this is really weakness in one brand in one country for a company with 75 brands... Now it's an important brand, an important country, but the hope here will be things will re-stabilize once this whole boycott thing in China shakes out.”at 44:47
Shawn O'Malley · The Investor's Podcast NetworkBearish
LVMH's sales and profits are falling: price hikes priced out aspirational buyers and fashion is weak.
LVMH has seen declining sales for two straight years, an outlier for a company that even avoided a decline in the 2008 financial crisis. Its price increases from 2019 to 2023 (a Louis Vuitton bag going from $1,500 to $2,500) were reasonable when volumes were high, but now they have priced out aspirational and first-time buyers, who are a key source of demand. Regionally, Asia revenue fell about 20% from its 2023 peak, US revenue has stagnated since 2022, and Europe has stagnated since 2024. Profit is concentrated: fashion and leather goods are about half of revenue and about 75% of profits, and that segment has posted seven consecutive quarters of negative organic growth. Cognac, the other major profit contributor, saw profit fall 25% last year. Sephora and jewelry are growing but are much lower margin, so they cannot offset the profit decline. Since the end of 2023, profits have fallen about 25%.
“Fashion and leather goods had seven consecutive quarters of negative organic growth from the third quarter of twenty twenty four through the first quarter of this year. And then cognac, historically the other major profit contributor saw profit drop 25% last year.”at 31:05
We Study Billionaires: TIP852: Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
Shawn O'Malley · The Investor's Podcast NetworkBullish
LVMH's Louis Vuitton is strong enough that the slump is macro, not structural, so recovery is likely.
Shawn argues that the probability LVMH never recovers is quite low. Even after the big drop in sales, jewelry and retail like Sephora are growing, and wine and spirits could mean-revert, so large parts of the business could perform relatively well. The rest depends mostly on Louis Vuitton recovering, and he calls that brand very strong. He therefore sees the decline as a matter of weathering macro headwinds rather than the brand being structurally impaired. He also notes LVMH has become the biggest luxury brand in the world for a reason and has balanced desirability and accessibility well over recent decades, though he concedes the pricing mistake in the pandemic period has backfired.
“wait for the Louis Vuitton brand to recover. And I think that is a brand that's so strong. It's really just a question of weathering various macro headwinds as opposed to worrying about the brand itself being structurally impaired.”at 32:29
We Study Billionaires: TIP852: Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
Shawn O'Malley · The Investor's Podcast NetworkBearish
LVMH's China slump is a middle-class problem; China-heavy luxury is hard to invest in now.
LVMH's China weakness is driven by aspirational middle-class buyers who felt richer when real estate values rose and have stopped buying luxury as property has fallen. That makes China-exposed luxury hard to invest in at present, so Shawn avoids brands with heavy China exposure for now.
“LVMH's China problem seems to really be more of a middle class problem where you had many aspirational buyers who felt rich when their real estate went up in value and now suddenly feel a whole lot less rich, if rich at all, and have suddenly stopped buying luxury goods.”at 42:48
We Study Billionaires: TIP852: Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
Daniel Mahncke · The Investor's Podcast NetworkBearish
Euro strength is hurting LVMH's reported results far more than its underlying growth.
About 80% of sales are outside the eurozone while most costs are in euros, so a strong euro over the past eighteen months hurts reported numbers. LVMH's revenue fell 3% reported while the underlying business grew 2%. Costs don't shrink with revenue, so profit is hit harder, with about €700m of operating profit lost to currency in the first half.
“So when the euro strengthens, as it did for most of the last eighteen months... that is not good.”at 52:49
We Study Billionaires: TIP852: Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
Daniel Mahncke · The Investor's Podcast NetworkNeutral
LVMH's wine and spirits, now under 6% of operating profit, won't move the stock much.
Cognac has been hit hardest, with Hennessy's US sales down about 40% from peak, while tequila is growing. Even so, the wine and spirits division has shrunk from about 15% of LVMH's operating profit in 2019 to under 6% last year. Even if alcohol keeps declining, that barely affects LVMH's share price.
“it basically already went from contributing about 15% to LVMH's operating profit in 2019 to just under 6% last year. So even if you believe that there's, you know, a secular decline for alcohol, and that will continue, it just doesn't move the needle or the share price of LVMH much more.”at 1:00:09
We Study Billionaires: TIP852: Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
Shawn O'Malley · The Investor's Podcast NetworkBearish
LVMH's fashion and leather margin fell seven points in five years; operating leverage reversed.
Fashion and leather, about three quarters of LVMH's group profit, saw its operating margin fall from almost 42% in 2021 to 34% in the first half of this year. That seven-point erosion in five years is operating leverage working in reverse, which is why this segment matters most to the stock.
“in the first half of this year. So that's seven percentage points of margin gone in five years on the segment that makes up three quarters of the group's profit. So this is operating leverage working in reverse.”at 1:01:19
We Study Billionaires: TIP852: Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
Daniel Mahncke · The Investor's Podcast NetworkNeutral
LVMH's roughly 11% expected return falls short of hurdle; brand strength won't improve.
Assuming sales grow only 3-4% a year until growth returns around 2028-2030, with margins rising a little, and a 20x multiple, the expected return is about 11% including dividends. That is below the 12% hurdle. Daniel thinks LVMH can be a good investment from here but expects its brand strength to stagnate over the next decade, and its lower-tier products such as surfboards at €15k dilute its luxury signal.
“Maybe I'm too obvious about it, but I think LVMH is more or less out of question for me personally. I think it can be a good investment from here, but I don't think the brand strength will get any better in, let's say, the next decade.”at 1:11:10
We Study Billionaires: TIP852: Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
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