Speaker · Updated
Daniel Mahncke: latest market views
The Investor's Podcast Network
Summary
Daniel Mahncke is an investing researcher and analyst who co-hosts The Investor's Podcast and The Intrinsic Value Podcast at The Investor's Podcast Network, pitching and valuing stocks for The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.
Chorus has 23 views from Daniel Mahncke across 2 episodes on We Study Billionaires since October 22, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Amazon.com and Meta Platforms; bearish on Etsy, Shopify and GE Aerospace.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- Amazon.comBullish ·
- EtsyBearish ·
- Meta PlatformsBullish ·
- ShopifyBearish ·
- GE AerospaceBearish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
ShopifyBullish
Shopify is among the most interesting companies showing AI in the real economy, setting the agentic commerce standard.
Daniel argues most public companies look threatened by AI, while Shopify is one of the few that is not, and that Meta is the other notable exception. He says Shopify has become the company setting the standard for how AI agents buy things online. He frames agentic commerce as a shift where an AI assistant searches, compares and eventually completes a purchase, and says Shopify is a key piece of how AI may shape shopping. He notes that today's activity is mostly LLM-driven discovery, with the full vision of agents buying with a budget not yet there, though Meta's Muse has moved the idea closer. He calls himself a bull on agentic commerce.
“Shopify might be one of the most interesting companies out there right now when it comes to AI actually showing up in the real economy.”at 8:57
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
ShopifyBullish
Shopify's buybacks now offset stock comp, a sign it has shifted from cash burn to self-funding.
Daniel says that for the first time in its public life, Shopify's buybacks roughly offset stock-based compensation. He says the $5B in buybacks is modest next to a $200B company, but symbolically it marks Shopify crossing from the cash-burning, disruptive phase into a self-funding phase. He compares it to Uber, where the same shift led to a lasting change in how the market treats the stock. He says it is a good sign that management is more careful about diluting shareholders. He still dislikes spending cash on buybacks at 100x earnings and notes that cash could otherwise go to the business or to dividends.
“for the first time in its public life, it is true that Shopify's buybacks are roughly offsetting stock based compensation.”at 27:57
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
Agents will fail at routine replenishment like Subscribe & Save but excel at high-consideration purchases.
Amazon's Subscribe and Save captures only about 1% to 3% of Amazon's GMV, and the average household buys 250 to 300 different items a year. Demand cannot be perfectly estimated on a weekly or monthly schedule, so automated replenishment fails: people accumulate unwanted stock and cancel. Unless an agent solves nearly all household purchases, it has not solved much. Agents work best for high-consideration product discovery, such as finding the right surf watch or fly rod for a trip, which is the kind of product Shopify merchants sell. Shawn's milkman example, where home milk delivery fell to zero, supports the point.
“Amazon Subscribe and Save... captures maybe 1% to 3% of Amazon's total GMV... unless an agent solves pretty much all of them, it hasn't really solved anything.”at 38:37
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
Amazon.comBullish
Amazon can block outside agents with little long-term damage by keeping routine buying and ads.
Daniel thinks Amazon has a good shot at blocking outside agents without major long-term impact. Consumers can keep buying their monthly routine on Amazon, as Subscribe and Save shows, and use agents only for high-consideration purchases. Those purchases often happen outside Amazon anyway. Amazon can still show ads for the majority of products people buy, losing ad inventory only on high-consideration items.
“Amazon might actually have a good shot though of blocking outside agents without a major impact even in the long term”at 45:34
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
AlphabetUncertain
Agentic shopping threatens Google's advertising core, though Google will likely adapt.
Daniel says Google's advertising business is its core, and agents that shop without showing ads threaten it. Such a threat was hard to imagine a year ago. He personally believes Google will figure it out, but calls the risk one that should not be underestimated. Shawn agrees the chatbots are a new referral channel that does not cut out the platform's role, while the early fear was that Google would take Shopify's payments.
“Amazon and Google, I think they actually face a threat here that probably just a year ago, nobody would have imagined that it's possible that those companies might lose the core of their business”at 46:43
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
Amazon.comUncertain
Agentic shopping threatens Amazon's advertising core, though Amazon may adapt.
Daniel argues that agents that shop without showing advertising put Amazon's and Google's advertising businesses, which form the core of their profits, at risk. A year ago, that outcome would have been unimaginable. He believes both will figure it out, but says the threat should not be underestimated. Meta is the exception, because its ads appear when people are entertained rather than during the buying process.
“Amazon and Google, I think they actually face a threat here that probably just a year ago, nobody would have imagined that it's possible that those companies might lose the core of their business”at 46:43
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
Meta PlatformsBullish
Meta's ad model is safe from agentic shopping because its ads run during entertainment, not purchases.
Daniel thinks Meta is probably the only major advertising company that is fairly safe. Its platforms play ads when people are looking for entertainment, and Meta is not anywhere in the buying process. If people shop with agents or skip shopping, they will still go to Instagram for entertainment, so Meta's ad inventory is not directly exposed to agents.
“Meta is probably the only one that's pretty safe because they play ads when people are looking for entertainment. They're not anywhere in the buying process.”at 46:43
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
ShopifyBullish
AI shopping referrals to Shopify stores are surging, helping small merchants win sales.
Orders to Shopify stores attributed to AI search are up roughly 15x since January 2025. In Q2 alone, AI-driven traffic and AI-attributed orders tripled year over year, and half of AI-referred sessions land directly on a product page. A Goldman Sachs conference talk said shoppers convert roughly 80% better through AI channels, and new buyers arrive from AI channels at nearly twice the rate of other channels. AI matches specific intent rather than popularity, so it favours long-tail specialist merchants (the Tin Can Phone example), which is Shopify's customer base. MoffettNathanson data shows brand.com traffic from AI platforms outpacing legacy marketplaces by four to eight times. Daniel cautions the numbers may make the shift seem further along than it is, but says the data suggests GMV growth will last longer than thought.
“orders to Shopify stores attributed to AI search are roughly 15 x since January 2025. And in q two alone, both AI driven traffic and AI attributed orders tripled year over year”at 52:11
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
EtsyBearish
Etsy's ad-driven profit and roughly 25% seller fee model won't survive agentic commerce.
Etsy earns over 100% of its operating profit from on-site ads and charges sellers an all-in fee of around 25%. Agents shopping on people's behalf are not swayed by advertising, so the ad-driven model should erode. A successful seller may ask why they pay 25% to be found when their own Shopify store now has a better chance of being recommended by Google's AI search or ChatGPT, at a fraction of the cost. Counterpoint: AI agents require less compute to shop well-indexed platforms like Amazon, which could favour them. Merchants leaving Etsy would most likely end up on Shopify.
“Etsy earns over 100% of its operating profit from these on-site ads... while charging sellers [an all-in fee of] around 25%. So as we talked about in a world of agentic commerce, that business model won't last because agents are doing the shopping on behalf of people”at 56:30
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
Muse looks more like a distributor than a referral channel, as Meta plans a transaction fee.
Daniel says the way people talk about Muse makes it look more like a distributor, which wedges itself between merchant and customer, than a referral channel. Meta's Zuckerberg said Muse will take a small fee on completed transactions, the first major AI platform to say it wants to take a toll on the transaction itself. That would be a step toward the distributor model. Shopify's shares fell from about $155 to $130 after Muse was announced, which Daniel reads as the market not knowing how to price the shift.
“Meta is, you know, the first major AI platform to say out loud that it wants to basically take a toll on the transaction itself, which, again, would be a big step toward that distributor framework”at 1:06:12
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
ShopifyBullish
Shopify's logistics, ads and payments plumbing can't be vibe-coded away, though pricing power may erode.
Daniel argues that Shopify's value sits largely outside the software: logistics, advertising integration (one-click Meta ad tracking, built by the CEOs of Shopify and Meta) and the behind-the-curtain work of a platform. That is almost impossible to replicate with AI-written code. He concedes this could limit Shopify's pricing power far down the line. He says there are businesses he is more concerned about than Shopify, and that real-world compute and LLM constraints mean AI is not a technology that renders every software platform obsolete overnight.
“I could definitely see how Shopify offers enough value basically outside of the software to not be Vibe Coded away by anyone.”at 1:08:17
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
ShopifyBearish
Shopify's multiple should compress to 35–45x earnings over a couple of years; would buy near $100.
Shopify is a fantastic business, but at 112x operating earnings the stock prices in best-case scenarios that go beyond the last year's growth, requiring the company to keep improving. Unlike Palantir, where the speaker could work out how earnings grow into the multiple, he cannot make the math work here. He expects it will take another couple of years for the market to become more cautious and settle the multiple at 35–45x earnings. He views 35x as Ben Graham's fair level and 45x as the most he would stretch to. He says he would consider opening a tracking position if the stock falls close to $100, and he is confident a better entry price will come, especially as the market debates AI's impact on e-commerce.
“Here, I think it will take us another couple of years in a market that finally says, Okay, well, let's be a bit more cautious here and actually settle down to, let's say, 35, 45 times earnings.”at 1:17:36
We Study Billionaires: TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke ·
GE AerospaceBullish
GE Aerospace has better economics than HEICO and TransDigm because it sits higher in the aviation value chain.
Economics improve the higher up the aviation value chain a company sits: airlines have the worst economics, and Boeing and Airbus, despite a duopoly, have not produced great margins and make mediocre capital-intensive investments. GE sells new engines at roughly breakeven or a loss, then earns on the aftermarket, which is the most profitable part of aerospace. Services are more than 70% of commercial engine revenue. GE's own math is that each engine returns about 3.5 times its original revenue in services over its life, and the commercial engine segment earns a 27% margin. GE's return on invested capital is close to 40%. Third-party data sites understate it because they include the insurance business. Shawn adds that GE is about $40B in revenue against TransDigm's $9B and HEICO's $4.5B, with similar profitability.
“At the risk of spoiling, I would say it's an even better business than the two of them. So HEICO and TransDigm. And it basically feels like the higher up the value chain you go, the better the economics actually become.”at 26:41
We Study Billionaires: TIP854: GE Aerospace: Chris Hohn’s Biggest Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
GE AerospaceBullish
GE Aerospace's installed base and certification barriers make its jet-engine position very hard to disrupt.
Engines take roughly a decade and several billion dollars to develop, and the FAA and EASA require thousands of test cycles before certification. Once an engine is certified for an aircraft type it is effectively locked in, so competitors struggle to enter. GE holds about 40% of the global engine maintenance, repair and overhaul market, which Daniel calls technically an oligopoly and possibly a monopoly given how contracts are structured. Its installed base of about 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines is under long contracts. Selling an engine also requires a global repair network, spare parts, spare engines and trained technicians. Leasing companies, which own about half of commercial aircraft, usually insist on original parts to protect resale value, which reinforces GE's position. Shawn adds that once an OEM picks a GE engine, it signs a multi-decade service commitment.
“So that is very hard to disrupt because the contracts are just going for such a long time. And for GE, for example, we're talking about 50,000 commercial engines and 30 k military engines in service around the world.”at 29:54
We Study Billionaires: TIP854: GE Aerospace: Chris Hohn’s Biggest Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
GE AerospaceBullish
GE's roughly $210B backlog, mostly high-margin services, gives long-dated revenue visibility.
GE's backlog of contracted but unrecognized revenue is about $210B, of which almost $180B is services (spare parts and maintenance), the high-margin part of the business, about 85% of the backlog. That is more than four years of total revenue. Service contracts run 10 to 20 years and are on average only a fifth of the way through, so the backlog converts slowly and gives stable visibility. Service revenue is currently about $25B a year.
“is the massive backlog. So the revenue that's already under contract but not yet realized is about $210,000,000,000. And of that, almost $180,000,000,000 is services.”at 49:31
We Study Billionaires: TIP854: GE Aerospace: Chris Hohn’s Biggest Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
GE AerospaceBearish
LEAP engine's hotter-running design wears parts faster, a real margin problem for GE's maintenance.
The LEAP engine burns about 15% less fuel than its predecessor, but it does so by running hotter, which wears parts out faster, especially in hot, dusty regions such as the Middle East or India. Some engines there needed a first overhaul after about a year and a half instead of five years. Under flight-hour service contracts, GE bears the cost of maintenance overruns, so this shifts cost onto GE. Shawn O'Malley noted that the new-engine maintenance business lost money for years and only broke even in 2024.
“And it's actually quite of a problem with the LEAP engine right now because it's known to be more efficient and burn about 15% less fuel than its predecessor. However, it does that by basically running hotter, which means... parts wear out faster”at 54:42
We Study Billionaires: TIP854: GE Aerospace: Chris Hohn’s Biggest Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
GE AerospaceBullish
GE's CEO Larry Culp has a strong track record from Danaher and deserves credit for GE's turnaround.
Larry Culp spent his career before GE at Danaher, joining in 1990 and becoming CEO in 2001. Under him, Danaher's revenue and market value both rose about fivefold. He brought the Danaher Business System, a lean manufacturing and continuous improvement approach, to GE. Daniel calls him somewhat of a genius for what he did at GE. A controversial point was his pay: his 2018 contract was worth up to $300M, and about 60% of shareholders voted against it in 2021.
“he's somewhat of a genius for what he did to GE. He spent basically his whole career before GE at Danaher... under him, Danaher's revenue and market value both went up fivefold.”at 55:55
We Study Billionaires: TIP854: GE Aerospace: Chris Hohn’s Biggest Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
GE AerospaceBearish
GE's buybacks at about 40x free cash flow give shareholders only a 2.5% buyback yield.
GE has spent nearly all its free cash flow, about $8B a year, on share buybacks. It trades at about 40 times price to free cash flow, so the company is buying back stock at hefty valuations, and the resulting buyback yield to shareholders is only 2.5%. Daniel compares this to Immelt's buybacks of about $93B at high valuations, and says this is the main capital allocation criticism.
“I think that's different, but that was certainly not the case here. So one thing that I actually do criticize a bit is the capital allocation. In the last few years, GE spent pretty much all of its free cash flow on share buybacks”at 57:57
We Study Billionaires: TIP854: GE Aerospace: Chris Hohn’s Biggest Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
GE AerospaceUncertain
GE's Consolidated Precision Products deal makes strategic sense for supply control despite a high price.
GE agreed to buy Consolidated Precision Products (CCP) for about $11.75B, about 26 times expected 2027 EBITDA, with about $7B paid in cash and new debt. CCP already supplies about a quarter of GE's airfoils, which are blades and vanes, and this is one of GE's biggest bottlenecks. Bringing it in house gives GE more control over supply. GE also cites about $200M of cost and productivity synergies. The strategic logic is clear, but the price is high.
“That's certainly how I would think about it. So CPP already supplies about a quarter of GE's air foil, so, you know, the blades and the [vanes] inside the engine.”at 1:01:12
We Study Billionaires: TIP854: GE Aerospace: Chris Hohn’s Biggest Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
GE AerospaceUncertain
Aviation downturns hit GE hard: profits fell 82% in 2020 and took until 2024 to recover.
GE's business has many physical assets and high operating leverage, which cuts both ways. In 2020, GE Aviation's revenue fell 33% and profits fell 82% in one year, and it took until 2024 to get back to 2019 levels. A macro shock that reduces flying could quickly erode GE's current profits. Services are more resilient than new engines, because airlines defer shop visits and run engines on green time. GE is also more concentrated than TransDigm, with one large product line that must win each new engine generation.
“So for example, in 2020, GE Aviation's revenue fell 33%, and then profits fell by 82 in just a single year. And then it took until 2024 to get back to 2019 levels.”at 1:02:38
We Study Billionaires: TIP854: GE Aerospace: Chris Hohn’s Biggest Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
GE AerospaceBullish
GE's earnings per share should grow about 16% a year for four to five years.
Daniel's model has services revenue growing 21% this year, in line with guidance, then slowing to 9 to 10% a year through 2030. New engines grow 20% this year, then about 7%. Defense grows about 10% this year, then about half that. Total revenue reaches about $70B by 2030, a roughly 10% compound rate. Commercial margins rise from 26% to 29% by 2030 as the LEAP drag normalises, which management guides to around 2028. Buybacks shrink the share count by 1 to 2% a year, and the dividend may grow in the mid-teens. Together this supports about 16% EPS growth.
“thanks to GE's buybacks, which I'm not a huge fan of, but they're still adding to your return... I could definitely see earnings per share growing at about 16% a year for the next four to five years.”at 1:08:02
We Study Billionaires: TIP854: GE Aerospace: Chris Hohn’s Biggest Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
GE AerospaceBearish
At 40x earnings, GE returns only high single digits even if the multiple falls to 30x.
Valuation is the key driver of the model, which is mainly the exit multiple. Daniel's model says the stock is only worth buying in the 35 to 40 times earnings range to get a good return. Even at a 30x exit multiple, his model suggests high single-digit returns, because the stock currently trades at 40x. Multiple compression can outweigh strong earnings growth, as with software stocks in the SaaS sell-off.
“even at your 30x multiple, the return that, for example, in my model would be suggested, it's still in the high single digits, if even, just because you're currently trading at 40x.”at 1:12:51
We Study Billionaires: TIP854: GE Aerospace: Chris Hohn’s Biggest Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
Rising global air travel is a massive long-term tailwind, as people spend more on trips than luxury goods.
He likes the long-term tailwind of more people traveling by air and expects it to be a massive driver over the next twenty to thirty years. He ties this to a shift in consumer spending, with many people spending more time and money on visiting places such as Hawaii and other parts of the world rather than chasing luxury goods. He had made the same argument in the Transom and LVMH episodes.
“I think that will be a trend that over the next twenty, thirty years' time will be a massive tailwind.”at 1:13:49
We Study Billionaires: TIP854: GE Aerospace: Chris Hohn’s Biggest Bet w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley ·
Shows
- We Study Billionaires · 2 episodes
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