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Meredith Whitney: latest market views
Meredith Whitney Advisory Group
Summary
Meredith Whitney is the founder and CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, a financial research and advisory firm she relaunched in 2023, and a former Oppenheimer analyst known for her early warnings about the 2008 financial crisis and bank risks.
Chorus has 8 views from Meredith Whitney across 2 episodes on Bloomberg Talks and Bloomberg Surveillance since November 3, 2026.
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Republicans face a big upset in the midterms because they are out of touch on affordability.
Whitney expects a very bad result for Republicans, drawing on her firm's work. She says Republicans have been out of touch on affordability and that the data they rely on is stale. Their headline data showing income gains across all levels is BLS data, which she calls very stale. She cites a concrete example of hardship: one in four SNAP recipients has lost access to food stamps. She concludes the electorate is angry and a big upset is coming, and that Republicans privately know they are at serious risk.
“from the work that we've done, I think it's gonna be really really bad. I mean, the Republicans have been so out touch on affordability... one in four recipients of food stamps or SNAP has lost their ability to access food stamps.”at 3:17
Bloomberg Talks: Meredith Whitney Advisory Group CEO Meredith Whitney Talks Midterm Elections in Virginia ·
Sports, betting & prediction markets
Prediction markets have been unreliable forecasters, missing recent elections in Brazil and Israel.
Whitney says the polls and the prediction markets have both been so bad over the last elections. She cites Brazil and Israel as examples. This is why the outcome of the US vote is still in doubt, and she suggests people watching tonight are waiting to see what happens. Her point rests on the recent track record of prediction markets, which she describes as poor.
“the polls have been so so bad, and the prediction markets have been so bad over the last election, be it Brazil, be it Israel.”at 3:17
Bloomberg Talks: Meredith Whitney Advisory Group CEO Meredith Whitney Talks Midterm Elections in Virginia ·
Headline consumer strength masks stress for lower-income households, visible in fast-growing pawn and daily wage access.
Whitney argues that banks lend mainly to prime and super-prime borrowers, so their data makes the economy look good. To see what is really happening for about 50% of households, she says you must watch stress indicators. Pawn loans have grown over 30% in the last few years. Daily wage access has grown like a rocket ship, as people move from paycheck-to-paycheck to payday-to-payday. The most relevant data sits with private fintechs such as Dave, Chime and Block, whose products are their fastest-growing lines. She says economists are not looking at this granular data.
“The banks lend to people who don't need money. They lend to prime and super prime. If you wanna see what's really going on with the economy with 50% of households, you have to look closer... pawn loans, which have grown 30 plus percent over the last few years.”at 5:12
Bloomberg Talks: Meredith Whitney Advisory Group CEO Meredith Whitney Talks Midterm Elections in Virginia ·
A growing centrist trend in the US is showing up in Texas, where centrist Democrat Talarico is expected to win.
Whitney sees a middle ground among the voters she talks to. She cites Texas as the example: Talarico, a centrist, is expected to win, and a Democratic win in Texas would be a major move. She argues more and more people are centrist and that most voters do not relate to the extremes that dominate both parties, so a central trend is growing in the country.
“Talarico is a centrist. ... I expect him to win, that says a lot about the country... And I think more and more people are centrist... most people don't relate to what's going on with... either party.”at 7:06
Bloomberg Talks: Meredith Whitney Advisory Group CEO Meredith Whitney Talks Midterm Elections in Virginia ·
Republicans face a very bad midterm result because they are out of touch on affordability.
Whitney says the Republicans have been out of touch on affordability. Official BLS income data, which shows all income levels growing, is stale. For people on the brink, one in four SNAP recipients has lost access to food stamps, and she says the electorate is angry. From her work she expects the result to be really bad for Republicans. She also expects Talarico to win in Texas, which she reads as a sign of growing centrism.
“I think it's gonna be really really bad. I mean, the Republicans have been so out of touch affordability.”at 4:07
Stress is concentrated at the bottom: lenders serving lower-income households keep outperforming as a K-shaped gap widens.
Whitney argues the official data hides real strain. Banks lend mostly to prime and super-prime borrowers, so she looks at pawn loans, which she says have grown more than 30% over the last few years, and earned wage access, which she says has grown like a rocket ship. Those people go from payday to payday. She points to Dave, Chime and Block as the fastest-growing products in their companies. She sees a growing chasm between haves and have-nots, and the nonbanks serving the bottom have outperformed and will keep doing so.
“the big growth areas, which is pawn loans, which have grown 30 plus percent over the last few years. Daily wage access has grown like a rocket ship.”at 5:34
Not keen on banks beyond trading; buybacks, not growth, drive them and little is happening there.
Whitney says she has not been keen on the banks except for trading, because they have been largely vehicles of share buybacks and have not really grown. She separates JPMorgan from the rest. As an example she cites Citi, which was trying to get a discount to tangible book and now trades at or above book. Her conclusion is that she does not see much going on in the banks.
“I haven't been so keen on the banks but for trading because they've been largely vehicles of, you know, share buybacks. They haven't really grown. ... Citi was trying to get a discount to tangible book, and now it's at book.”at 8:28
Payment networks have been financials' standout; asset-light, high-margin nonbanks will keep outperforming banks.
Whitney calls the payment companies the shining stars of financials and the OGs of fintech. She credits their asset-light models and high margins, and says nonbanks have really outperformed and will continue to outperform. Her comparison is with banks, which she says have grown little and mainly returned cash through buybacks.
“The payment companies have been the shining stars of financials. They were sort of the OGs of fintech. ... asset light models, high margin vehicles. ... But I think that the nonbanks have really outperformed and will continue to outperform.”at 8:46
Shows
- Bloomberg Talks · 1 episode
- Bloomberg Surveillance · 1 episode
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