Speaker · Updated
Matt Stucky: latest market views
Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company
Summary
Matt Stucky, CFA, is chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, where he leads the team of analysts and portfolio managers and has been with the firm for over 14 years.
Chorus has 11 views from Matt Stucky across 2 episodes on Bloomberg Surveillance and CNBC Closing Bell since October 12, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on NVIDIA and SK Hynix.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
AI infrastructure & data centers
Hyperscaler returns on AI compute look sustainable in the near term, backed by strong spot compute pricing.
Stucky points to last night's earnings as a good indication that, at least in the near term, AI spending is generating sustainable returns for hyperscalers. He cites the gap between contract and spot compute rates, with spot pricing strong as SpaceX leans into spot compute. He notes that spot prices have risen about 30% year to date, which he reads as supply tightening against demand.
“last night we got a pretty good indication that at least in the near term, things are fairly sustainable from a return perspective for hyperscalers.”at 2:51
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 21st, 2026 ·
NVIDIABullish
Nvidia's multiple has compressed sharply as expected earnings rose far faster than the stock, making entry attractive.
Expected calendar 2027 earnings for Nvidia are up more than 110% from where investors expected them last year, while the stock is up less than 20% over the same period. That gap reflects a large multiple compression. Stucky reads this as pessimism about the sustainability of the AI build-out leaking into valuation, which creates an opportunity if the current build-out momentum holds into next year. He also says semiconductors continue to do well fundamentally.
“I think so. I mean, take NVIDIA... it's up more than a 110%. You have the stocks up, you know, just less than 20% during that time period. There's been a massive amount of multiple compression.”at 5:39
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 21st, 2026 ·
SK HynixBullish
SK Hynix trades near 0.9x expected 2028 book value, too cheap for the growth it should deliver.
SK Hynix trades at roughly 90 cents per dollar of expected 2028 book value. Stucky argues that this is not the sentiment investors would have if they were underwriting multiple years of steep earnings growth. He treats the low valuation as evidence of pessimism about the trade's sustainability. That pessimism, he says, creates an opportunity if the build-out momentum persists into next year.
“Let's take SK Hynix as an example. The stock is trading, you know, roughly 90¢ of a dollar of expected book value in 2028.”at 6:02
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 21st, 2026 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Neoclouds, now about 10% of capacity, will supply about 40% of new compute over the next decade.
Neoclouds were roughly 10% of existing AI compute capacity in 2025 but are the fastest-growing suppliers of new compute. Stucky cites research expecting them to supply about 40% of incremental supply over the next ten years. He sees this as a risk: if financing and sentiment become untenable for continued build-out, the main players that monetize compute, especially semiconductor makers, could face volatility. He still says that if demand is there, capacity will be attracted, so demand is the key question.
“Take the Neo Clouds as an example. In 2025, they're roughly around 10% of existing capacity, but they are the fastest growing suppliers of new compute... they're expected to be 40% of incremental supply.”at 7:02
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 21st, 2026 ·
Stay underweight high yield; investment-grade bonds are a better diversifier because high yield trades with equities.
Stucky's firm remains underweight high yield. He argues that high yield starts to correlate more with equities, so if the firm wants equity-like risk it would rather hold traditional equities directly. Investment-grade fixed income is an attractive starting point and a good diversifier. For the ten-year Treasury, he says a one-year forward skew for a 100 basis point rate move in either direction is attractive, with roughly a 1.5% drawdown against 12.5% upside.
“We continue to remain underweight high yield... Leaking into high yield to us... starts to correlate more and more with equities, and we would rather just... lean into traditional equities if we're looking for that type of risk.”at 8:18
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 21st, 2026 ·
Q3 S&P earnings growth likely in the upper twenties, a strong result, though below Q2.
Matt expects positive earnings season results, though not as strong as Q2's roughly low-thirties year-over-year growth. If consensus is right, Q3 should land in the upper twenties or a bit better. He notes that the market's direction through year-end depends more on the multiple, which is driven by Fed hawkishness, the 10-year rate, inflation and oil, than on earnings.
“if the consensus is right, we're likely to see something in the upper twenties, maybe a little bit better than that.”at 2:58
Market direction through year-end hinges on valuation multiples, driven by Fed hawkishness and yields, not earnings.
Matt argues that earnings growth is strong enough that the path of the market from here depends on the multiple. That multiple depends on Fed hawkishness and where the 10-year rate goes, which in turn is shaped by inflation and oil. Cost of capital is the main issue, and the outlook for the multiple remains uncertain.
“what might drive things from here through year end has to do with the multiple side, not the earning side.”at 2:58
Higher rates are positive for bank net interest income; fee businesses like M&A are the open question.
Most banks are asset sensitive, so higher rates help net interest income. Some deposit pricing pressure is possible, but asset repricing on maturities and strong loan demand support the outlook. The bigger question is fee businesses: whether higher rates slow M&A and investment banking activity, which he expects to hear about in bank earnings.
“looking at NII, I think it's a positive for a few reasons. One is, you know, most banks tend to be asset sensitive”at 8:58
Market breadth rises and falls with Fed hike pricing; broadening returns when hikes get priced out.
Since hawkish Fed tone began in early August, the share of companies trading above their 200-day moving average fell from the mid-sixties to the low forties. Matt attributes this to Fed hawkish talk and higher longer-term rates as the hiking cycle was priced in over the next twelve months. Breadth has ebbed and flowed with hike expectations, and he expects it to keep moving with CPI and the Fed's path.
“you see [breadth] plummet from, you know, around mid sixties or so companies trading above their two hundred day moving average to the low forties today”at 11:37
Rates are the main correction trigger, not unemployment, which remains low; rates are a caution flag.
Matt says historically corrections come from a sharp rise in long-term rates or a rise in unemployment. Unemployment remains low, but rates are significantly higher without much pain showing in the S&P 500 so far. That makes rates the area to watch, and he flags it as a caution point. Earnings growth has not slowed so far, due to the AI build-out.
“If you look over history, what causes corrections is usually one or two things. It's either a sharp back up in long term rates or back up the unemployment rate.”at 14:52
AI infrastructure & data centers
Hyperscaler AI spending keeps semiconductor margins strong; expects continued strength this earnings season.
The AI build-out is why earnings growth has held up so far. As long as hyperscalers keep spending, semiconductors should keep strong margins. Matt cites incremental margins for hyperscalers in the mid-fifties, which explains why they keep spending. He expects continued strength from them in the upcoming reports.
“So as long as hyperscalers are continuing to spend, semiconductors are going to continue to have really strong margins in that type of environment.”at 14:52
Shows
- Bloomberg Surveillance · 1 episode
- CNBC Closing Bell · 1 episode
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