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Jessica Taylor: latest market views
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
Summary
Jessica Taylor is the Senate and Governors Editor at The Cook Political Report, a former NPR political reporter and senior author of The Almanac of American Politics who handicaps U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.
Chorus has 5 views from Jessica Taylor across 3 episodes on Bloomberg Surveillance since October 19, 2026.
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Voters want change, so Democrats are favoured in the midterms, but a Republican White House would limit their power.
Taylor says both parties need to do some soul searching, but the Republicans hold power, so voters want change. In a two-party system, that change means Democrats. Democrats should not read a Tuesday win as an endorsement of everything they stand for, and they should focus on affordability. Even if they take the House and possibly the Senate, Trump still holds the White House, so Democrats would mainly be able to limit his agenda. She expects Republicans, if they take a heavy defeat, to face pressure to reassess, which could affect the succession race around JD Vance.
“Republicans are the ones in power. So voters want change. And for that... in the two party system, change means Democrats. ... they still have a Republican White House, so what they can do is limit it.”at 16:46
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 2, 2026 ·
Trump's drag and weak GOP incumbents are forcing Republicans to defend solid red Senate states like Mississippi and South Carolina.
Cook shifted Mississippi and South Carolina toward competitive status. In Mississippi, polls are closer and the national Republican super PAC is spending there. In South Carolina, the appointed senator is underperforming and struggling to raise money, and Democrat Annie Andrews is outspending her on air, so Republicans are sending in help. Republicans are also playing defense in double-digit Trump states like Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. She sees this as a combination of a drag on Trump and weak incumbents.
“But the fact that they are trying to shore up these solid red states just tells you it's a combination, I think, of a drag on Trump and a combination of weak incumbents in both Mississippi and South Carolina”at 23:44
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 26th, 2026 ·
Vivek Ramaswamy's Ohio ad hurt him; Cook moved the governor race to Lean Democrat, with Acton a slight favorite.
The controversial ad broke through and is damaging because Ramaswamy already has an unlikable image and favorability problem. Running an ad like this does little to improve his own favorability. Despite hundreds of millions of dollars spent by his super PAC and the RGA, Acton's favorability has taken a hit but he still benefits. Cook moved the race from toss-up to Lean Democrat, with Acton a slight favorite, though Ohio could still be close.
“I think that this is going to benefit Acton so much that we shifted our race on... Our race rating on Friday from toss-up to lean democrat”at 25:08
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 26th, 2026 ·
Reputable polls show consistent trends, so they can be trusted; rural polls may undersample Republicans.
Republicans claim the polls are misleading, but she says high-quality polls show similar trajectories. Some polling firms are fake and should be dismissed. Cook's own polls with a bipartisan Democratic firm and a Republican firm found close races in Texas and Ohio, and Democrat Rob Sand was up 11 points in Iowa. She puts more weight on the trend across polls than on one poll. She acknowledges that rural areas such as Ohio, Iowa and Kansas may be undersampling Republicans.
“What gives me confidence is that in high quality polling, we have seen trajectories that are pretty similar in their way.”at 27:06
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 26th, 2026 ·
Democrats are poised to gain Senate and House seats and governorships, driven by Trump's sagging approval.
Taylor says North Carolina's Senate seat is going to flip to Democrats because Republicans have effectively conceded it. Maine and possibly Texas are the next most likely to flip, and the majority hinges on Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas. The races are being fought in double-digit Trump states, where Trump's margin has shrunk from about 13 points to 16 points, reflecting a fall in his approval. She attributes the Republican decline to the economy, the war in Iran, and high gas and diesel prices, which have left voters fed up with the cost of everything. Democrats are poised to pick up governorships for the first time since 2010, and she expects the House to be the more certain outcome. Her forecast for the Senate is two to six seats, and for the House nine to nineteen seats. She expects gridlock afterward, as Democrats constrained by the presidency would produce mostly rhetoric heading into 2028.
“For the senate right now, we say between two and six seats. On the house, we have between nine and nineteen seats.”at 14:49
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 19th, 2026 ·
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