Speaker · Updated
Jack Forehand: latest market views
Validea Capital Management
Summary
Jack Forehand is president and co-founder of Validea and Validea Capital Management, co-author of The Guru Investor, and co-host of the Excess Returns investing podcast.
Chorus has 5 views from Jack Forehand across 4 episodes on Excess Returns since October 4, 2026.
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Optimistic about AI's long-term future, but concerned about the heavy debt taken on to fund it.
Forehand notes that the AI trade has held up the whole market and that his firm is very optimistic about AI over the long term. He balances that against the large amount of debt that has been taken on to build out AI capacity and against a changed political landscape. He also suggests the economic reality of AI may not have changed as much as the stock market reaction implies, so market and economic signals should be analysed separately.
“Obviously, the AI trade has held up the whole market. ... I think we're very optimistic about AI for the future, but also there's been a lot of debt has been taken on, and we're in a changed political landscape.”at 4:32
Excess Returns: Last Call | Breaking Down the Post Election Decline ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
A thoughtful, Texas-style permitting approach would slow data centers but not halt them.
Jack distinguishes between two kinds of new governors. A thoughtful approach, like the one he attributes to the new Texas governor, would address water use and ensure data centers benefit surrounding communities, and would not place them next to homes. He argues that Texas has plenty of land, so this approach makes sense. Under that approach he expects a slowdown in data center construction but not a halt. A ban on new data centers would produce a very different outcome.
“If that's what ends up happening, you might see a slowdown in data centers, but you're not gonna necessarily see, like, a halt to data centers. Whereas if they come in and be like, no more data centers, that's probably a very different outcome.”at 1:15:43
Excess Returns: Last Call | Breaking Down the Post Election Decline ·
Today's IPO wave is a few massive companies, unlike 2000's flood of listings.
Jack compares the late-1990s IPO market with today's. Back then IPOs came out in large volume with many companies. Now the offerings involve very large companies, so the wave is about the size of the assets rather than the number of companies. He presents this as a different dynamic from 2000.
“Obviously, IPOs were coming out left and right, but also on this side, we've got such massive size to the IPOs. So it's like a very different thing.”at 37:41
Excess Returns: Baird's Tech Strategist Says This Isn't 2000. So Why Is He Warning Against Buying the Dip? ·
Sports, betting & prediction markets
Election prediction markets beat polls because people with money at stake reveal their best forecast.
He argues that prediction markets in elections have been more accurate than polls. The mechanism is that when people have to put their money behind a forecast, the market reveals their best prediction, whether or not they turn out to be right. He says investors can learn from this, and that the public often conflates betting on prediction markets with using them as an information source.
“I think prediction markets, in elections have been better than polls, because whenever people have to put their money behind something, you get their best prediction.”at 13:34
Excess Returns: The S&P 500 Is Only 50 Stocks. 70% of the Index Is in a Correction. Did the Sell-Off Already Happen? ·
Unlike dot-com fiber overbuild, AI capacity can't meet demand, so AI may be less bubble-prone.
In the dot-com boom, much fiber was built well ahead of demand. Today the buildout is struggling to keep up with demand, which he thinks makes AI less likely to become a bubble than the dot-com era was. Ed Yardeni agreed with him.
“in the [dot-com] boom, a lot of this fiber was built out in advance of demand, and now we can't even meet demand. It seems like that might be a case for this turning less into a bubble maybe than that did.”at 27:28
Excess Returns: Ed Yardeni Still Sees S&P 10,000 by 2029. So Why Is He Getting More Cautious? ·
Shows
- Excess Returns · 4 episodes
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