Speaker · Updated
Gil Luria: latest market views
D.A. Davidson
Summary
Gil Luria is Managing Director and Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson, where he leads a team of analysts covering large-cap tech and software stocks such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, Palantir, Snowflake and Datadog, and is a frequent CNBC commentator on AI and big tech.
Chorus has 26 views from Gil Luria across 3 episodes on Prof G Markets and CNBC Closing Bell since October 13, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Anthropic and Broadcom; bearish on Alphabet, Oracle and CoreWeave.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AlphabetBearish ·
- Meta PlatformsBullish ·
- MicrosoftBullish ·
- OracleBearish ·
- AnthropicBullish ·
- BroadcomBullish ·
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
- CrowdStrike HoldingsBullish ·
- DatadogBullish ·
- Micron TechnologyBullish ·
- NVIDIABullish ·
- Palantir TechnologiesBullish ·
- ShopifyBullish ·
- SK HynixBullish ·
- SnowflakeBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
MicrosoftBullish
Microsoft's clean beat-and-raise, with Azure accelerating to 48%, explains the stock's jump and reflects strong fundamentals.
Microsoft beat and raised. Azure grew 48%, up from 43%, on a business of more than $120B, and margins are better than peers' even at that scale. The non-AI business also performed well enough to drive the overall revenue beat, earnings beat and above-expectation guidance. Microsoft is also selling more enterprise, infrastructure and application software and raising Windows and Office tiers, using AI to do so. That clean beat-and-raise is why the stock is up.
“So not only was the Azure business great, it accelerated from 43 to 48%... This is a $120,000,000,000 plus business. Those are tremendous growth rates at better margins.”at 3:04
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
MicrosoftBullish
Microsoft's neocloud overflow capacity and long-term commitments let it limit capex and stay free-cash-flow positive.
Unlike Amazon, Google and Meta, Microsoft does not need to build all the data center capacity its customers need. It makes long-term commitments to a significant portion of its build, then rents extra compute from neoclouds on short-term contracts when demand exceeds that. This keeps capex lower. Combined with a more profitable core business, Microsoft stays free-cash-flow positive. That means it doesn't have to raise money in capital markets, which Luria says makes it look better to investors. He adds that Microsoft's approach is more responsible even though all the hyperscalers are spending heavily.
“So what Microsoft does slightly different, it's different than Amazon and slightly different than Google, is they've been relying on overflow capacity from Neo Clouds. So they don't need to build all the data center capacity to meet their customer needs.”at 4:14
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
AlphabetBullish
Google Cloud's doubling growth, driven by TPU sales and Anthropic, is strong; the problem is elsewhere.
Google Cloud revenue roughly doubled, to a run rate Luria calls very large. Part of that comes from TPU sales and a lot from momentum at Anthropic, which is decelerating but still adding substantial revenue. Much of that flows to Google Cloud as referral and compute fees. Luria says that if Google had only reported cloud results, the stock would be up. The stock drop was caused by the core advertising business instead.
“It's not the cloud business. Cloud business is doing great... Part of it is TPU sales now. A lot of it is the momentum in Anthropic... So that part of the business was great.”at 7:43
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
AlphabetUncertain
Google's abrupt search ad slowdown may reflect chatbot substitution; one quarter, so no need to panic.
Google's core search ad business, the largest source of its profit, slowed abruptly and unexpectedly this quarter, despite management pointing to tough comparisons. Investors are now asking whether shifting user behavior toward ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini is hurting search, which was the original fear when ChatGPT launched. Luria says it is too early to tell from one quarter and that investors don't need to panic. But the concern is top of mind because search ads drive most of Google's profit, and Google's AI-era ad products may not be enough to offset lost search share in the long run.
“If people stop Googling and start GPTing, that means less ad sales. And they've been able to assuage those concerns for the last couple of years... But this quarter, it appeared to abruptly slow down.”at 8:32
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
Meta PlatformsBullish
Meta's ad growth accelerating to the high twenties shows the ad market is healthy and Meta is gaining share from Google.
Meta accelerated growth to the high twenties last week. Its digital advertising business is growing more than twice as fast as Google's, and it is gaining a lot of share. That shows the overall ad market is not the problem. The concern about slowing ad growth is specific to Google's search advertising.
“Meta accelerated growth to the high twenties last week. Meta is now growing more than twice as fast in the digital advertising business than Google. They're gaining a lot of share.”at 9:18
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
AlphabetBearish
Google's rising AI capex and negative free cash flow will force more capital raises, pressuring its yields and share price.
Google's free cash flow is negative again at about -$9.1B this quarter, with capex above $51B. Luria reads Google's guidance that capex will rise next year as implying a move from about $200B to $300B, which is a lot of capital to raise. Google will therefore need to return to capital markets if it keeps this pace. Investors can still fund it, but borrowing and share issuance add pressure on the yield Google must pay and on the share price. Google's move to offload capacity because it can't meet demand also means lower margins, which feeds concerns about the core business.
“Yes. Because it means that they'll have to go back to the capital markets if they keep it this way.”at 12:04
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
External funding for the AI buildout is finite, and some capital markets may already be seizing up.
Capital for the AI buildout is finite. Meta said in its filing that it needs to raise capital before it runs out, and SpaceX, Anthropic and Google have all raised large sums recently. Equity supply is limited, and debt investors are the other key source of funding. Not everyone will get a piece, and some parts of the capital markets may already be seizing up, as seen in higher CDS spreads and very high yields on some outstanding bonds. Microsoft is fine since it doesn't need capital, and Amazon, Google and Meta are still investment grade and could probably raise as much as they want up to a point. Luria's bigger worry is everyone else.
“but it is finite. In fact, Meta pointed this out in their filing last week. They said, hey, look, we need to go get capital before it's all gone... So at some point, not everybody's gonna get a piece, and some parts of the capital markets may actually already be seizing up.”at 14:51
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
OracleBearish
Oracle's cut to its planned raise and turn to vendor financing signals that capital for AI buildouts is less available.
Oracle changed its financing plan to raise $20B in total, split between $10B of equity and $10B of debt. Luria argues this is not because Oracle needs less capital, since it still needs a lot. It is because Oracle must go to plan B: bring-your-own-chip arrangements and vendor financing. He reads this as a sign that capital is not as available as it used to be, and that the pressure reaches past the hyperscalers to smaller players such as CoreWeave.
“Oracle talked about the fact that they've changed their plans... That's not because they don't need a lot of capital. It's because they have to go to plan b.”at 15:53
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
AI value-chain companies report strong results, raised guidance and record visibility; the sell-off doubts durability, not current demand.
Luria says every company in the AI value chain, from chip equipment makers to chipmakers, hyperscalers and model companies, reported very good results over recent weeks. They say market conditions are better than three months ago, outlook is improving, guidance is being raised, and visibility is better than ever. Investors are jittery because they do not believe the boom can last. Luria thinks companies need to explain better why they see such good visibility, but the reported numbers do not show weakness.
“All we've heard over the last several weeks, I wanna just be clear about that, from all the companies throughout the AI value chain is not only are they reporting very good results”at 19:28
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic's revenue is growing fast and incrementally profitable, and it may already be cash-flow positive.
Luria expects Anthropic's revenue run rate, combined with OpenAI's, to be well above $100B, up from about $10B a year ago and zero two years ago. He estimates gross margins of 60-80%, depending on gross or net revenue, which is healthy. Anthropic may be cash-flow positive because its growth has been so fast it could not spend fast enough. On an incremental basis its revenue is quite profitable and still growing fast. He is in year one of a long investment cycle, and he thinks AI spending will likely produce positive returns over the next twelve months.
“Anthropic may actually be cash flow positive because their growth has been so fast they couldn't spend fast enough. ... their revenue is actually quite profitable and is still growing very fast.”at 22:05
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
OpenAIUncertain
OpenAI is gross-margin profitable on compute but probably not overall profitable; full profitability is speculative.
Luria walks through the numbers. On about $70B of revenue, including a $20B hyperscaler cut, OpenAI keeps about $50B, and about $30B of gross margin after compute costs. Its training costs are likely above $30B, so it is probably not profitable overall. Training costs are not ramping faster than revenue, and very large models limit how much more can be spent. He estimates net margins near 80% and gross margins near 60%, which he calls healthy for a company that did not exist a few years ago.
“So OpenAI may not be profitable, it's probably not profitable right now on an overall basis, but it is profitable on”at 25:35
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
AnthropicUncertain
Anthropic's public listing will be highly speculative, since long-run profitability including training and compute costs is unproven.
Luria says it is completely speculative whether Anthropic and OpenAI will ever become profitable on an overall basis, including payments to hyperscalers, compute, and training. That is why he expects Anthropic's IPO to be highly speculative. He notes much current AI spending by consumers and companies goes to these two firms, which will not be the case forever. He also says the application layer, other models, and open-weight models will take a growing share of the market.
“That's why as Anthropic goes public, it's going be highly speculative.”at 27:13
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
Chip demand holds whichever AI model is used, since open-weight and application-layer spending still needs GPUs, CPUs and memory.
Luria argues that AI spending will broaden beyond OpenAI and Anthropic into an application layer built on top of them, mostly through hyperscalers, and into cheaper open-weight and open-source models. Revenue from these sources will keep funding investment even if it is not the two leading labs. Whether a model runs on a data center, on premise, or on a device, it still uses GPUs, CPUs and memory, so it does not matter which model it is for chip demand.
“Because when we use an open weight model, open source model, we're still using GPUs, CPUs, and memory. It doesn't matter.”at 29:04
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
Micron TechnologyBullish
Micron is priced as if the AI cycle ends, yet it should capture most chip profit if the cycle runs to 2030.
Luria says the market is treating four chip companies, SK Hynix, Micron, Nvidia and Broadcom, as if the cycle is already over, trading at low multiples (about 18x and 4-5x), while much of the semi complex trades at 30-50x. He thinks this is inconsistent: if the cycle continues through 2030, these four will capture most of the profit, not just grow. Part of the gap reflects trading and the law of large numbers. He names Micron among the chip names he likes most.
“Because if the cycle continues through 2030, those four companies will grab most of the profit.”at 31:22
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
NVIDIABullish
Nvidia is priced as if the AI cycle ends, yet it should capture most chip profit if the cycle runs to 2030.
Luria says the market is treating Nvidia, Micron, SK Hynix and Broadcom as if the AI cycle is already over, trading at low multiples while much of the semi complex trades at 30-50x. He argues this makes no sense. If the cycle continues through 2030, these four will grab most of the profit. He lists Nvidia among the chip names he likes.
“Because if the cycle continues through 2030, those four companies will grab most of the profit.”at 31:22
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
BroadcomBullish
Broadcom is priced as if the AI cycle ends, yet it should capture most chip profit if the cycle runs to 2030.
Luria says the market treats Broadcom, along with SK Hynix, Micron and Nvidia, as if the AI cycle is already over, while much of the semi complex trades at 30-50x. If the cycle continues through 2030, these four will take most of the profit. He likes Broadcom, though only to some extent.
“Because if the cycle continues through 2030, those four companies will grab most of the profit.”at 31:22
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
SK HynixBullish
SK Hynix is priced as if the AI cycle ends, yet it should capture most chip profit if the cycle runs to 2030.
Luria says the market treats SK Hynix, Micron, Nvidia and Broadcom as if the AI cycle is already over, while much of the semi complex trades at 30-50x. If the cycle continues through 2030, these four will grab most of the profit, so the market's valuation makes no sense. He lists SK Hynix among the chip names he likes.
“Because if the cycle continues through 2030, those four companies will grab most of the profit.”at 31:22
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave's equity goes to zero if the AI cycle turns; borrowing at 9% for about 1% returns destroys value.
Luria calls CoreWeave the poster child for bad behaviour: borrowing at very high rates, about 9%, to fund a speculative asset that currently earns about 1% returns, with guidance of only 4-5% at best. He compares it to an individual investor taking a margin loan at 9% to buy Treasuries yielding 5%, which is value destruction. If the AI cycle sputters or turns, CoreWeave will be the first to go, its equity worth zero, and it may not be able to make its interest payments.
“[CoreWeave] is gonna be the worst, the first to go. The equity value is gonna be zero.”at 32:30
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
SnowflakeBullish
Snowflake is a software winner from AI tools improving, adding value and accelerating growth, with much bigger upside ahead.
Luria names Snowflake in a group of software companies doing phenomenally well. They are all benefiting from AI tools getting better, adding more and more value, and have accelerating growth. They performed well recently, and he thinks they will be much bigger companies down the road.
“You've got Palantir, Snowflake, Datadog, Shopify, CrowdStrike, ... extraordinarily good companies that are all benefiting from AI tools getting better.”at 33:42
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
DatadogBullish
Datadog is a software winner from AI tools improving, adding value and accelerating growth, with much bigger upside ahead.
Luria names Datadog in a group of software companies doing phenomenally well. They are all benefiting from AI tools getting better, adding more and more value, and have accelerating growth. They performed well recently, and he thinks they will be much bigger companies down the road.
“You've got Palantir, Snowflake, Datadog, Shopify, CrowdStrike, ... extraordinarily good companies that are all benefiting from AI tools getting better.”at 33:42
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
ShopifyBullish
Shopify is a software winner from AI tools improving, adding value and accelerating growth, with much bigger upside ahead.
Luria names Shopify in a group of software companies doing phenomenally well. They are all benefiting from AI tools getting better, adding more and more value, and have accelerating growth. They performed well recently, and he thinks they will be much bigger companies down the road.
“You've got Palantir, Snowflake, Datadog, Shopify, CrowdStrike, ... extraordinarily good companies that are all benefiting from AI tools getting better.”at 33:42
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
CrowdStrike HoldingsBullish
CrowdStrike is a software winner from AI tools improving, adding value and accelerating growth, with much bigger upside ahead.
Luria names CrowdStrike in a group of software companies doing phenomenally well. They are all benefiting from AI tools getting better, adding more and more value, and have accelerating growth. They performed well recently, and he thinks they will be much bigger companies down the road.
“You've got Palantir, Snowflake, Datadog, Shopify, CrowdStrike, ... extraordinarily good companies that are all benefiting from AI tools getting better.”at 33:42
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
Palantir TechnologiesBullish
Palantir is a software winner from AI tools improving, adding value and accelerating growth, with much bigger upside ahead.
Luria names Palantir in a group of software companies doing phenomenally well. They are all benefiting from AI tools getting better, adding more and more value, and have accelerating growth. They performed well recently, and he thinks they will be much bigger companies down the road.
“You've got Palantir, Snowflake, Datadog, Shopify, CrowdStrike, ... extraordinarily good companies that are all benefiting from AI tools getting better.”at 33:42
Prof G Markets: Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work? ·
AI chip supply-chain results and outlooks keep improving, contrary to the stocks' weak trading.
Luria says results reported over the last eight to ten weeks have been positive across the value chain, including chip equipment makers, chipmakers, hyperscalers and model companies, and that companies say outlooks and visibility have improved. He sees this consistency as evidence the sell-off is not about fundamentals. He points to Broadcom's commentary as consistently positive, and attributes the recent drop to a misunderstanding about OpenAI's gross versus net revenue reporting, not a deterioration in demand.
“All the results that have been reported over the last eight to ten weeks have been not only positive, but companies across the value chain have said that the results have improved, that the outlook has improved, and the visibility has improved.”at 8:22
Micron TechnologyBullish
China's CXMT memory push is a limited threat to Micron, which doesn't compete in high-bandwidth memory.
Luria says the Chinese memory makers, though newly public, have been catching up but only compete at the low end and do not participate in high-bandwidth memory. Micron's biggest customers, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple and Nvidia, cannot buy Chinese chips, so any impact falls mainly on SK Hynix and Samsung rather than Micron. He adds that Chinese producers cannot meet their own domestic demand for a while, and that the competitive threat is already in Micron's supply and demand math.
“They only participate in the low end of the market. They do not participate in the high bandwidth memory part of the market.”at 10:28
Micron TechnologyBullish
Micron no longer sells a commodity, so its ~6x forward multiple should converge toward AMD and Intel.
Micron trades at about 6x forward earnings while AMD and Intel trade above 40x, even though Luria sees the three as similarly competitive and similarly exposed to the AI cycle. He says the gap persists because investors still treat memory as a commodity with its own boom-bust cycle. He argues that has changed: large customers now sign long-term deals, so Micron sells a non-commoditized product, and the cycle hitting Micron is the same one hitting the rest of the chip sector. He says management expects tightness to worsen next year and the year after, and that they know the competitive roadmap, including China's. Micron is about 3% of Nasdaq 100 market cap but about 10% of its next-twelve-month earnings. He attributes the stock's underperformance to psychology: investors who sold after the run think they are done, and those who missed it won't buy in. If Micron reaches a market multiple in a year, that is about seven points of performance from one position.
“So Micron no longer sells a commodity... the cycle that impacts Micron is the cycle that impacts everybody else.”at 13:06
Shows
- Prof G Markets · 2 episodes
- CNBC Closing Bell · 1 episode
Ask your AI what Gil Luria thinks
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