Speaker · Updated
Gary S. Wagner: latest market views
TheGoldForecast.com (Wagner Financial Corporation)
Summary
Gary S. Wagner is a technical market analyst of over 35 years, executive producer of the TheGoldForecast.com daily precious-metals video newsletter, a regular Kitco News analyst since 2010, and co-author of 'Trading Applications of Japanese Candlestick Charting'.
Chorus has 14 views from Gary S. Wagner across 2 episodes on The David Lin Report since October 9, 2026.
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Gold's 2026 correction of about a third is severe but far milder than the 2011-2015 halving.
Wagner compares the 2026 drop with the 2011 to 2015 slide. In 2011 gold meandered between $1,900 and $2,000, broke below, and took about five years to fall roughly in half, bottoming near $1,000. He says his technical studies confirm a deep correction this year, with about a third of the price coming off the top. He says that is nothing like the halving of 2011 to 2015, which implies the 2026 drawdown is closer to a sizeable pullback than a full bear cycle.
“our technical studies, I believe confirms that we did experience a deep correction. About a third of the price of gold per ounce came off the top, but that's nothing like we saw when the price of gold was halved”at 1:43
The David Lin Report: Gold's Violent Reversal: How Far Does Rally Go? | Gary Wagner ·
Gold no longer rallies on inflation; higher inflation expectations now push it lower via Fed hike bets.
Historically higher inflation was a bullish tailwind for gold. In the recent period, rising inflation expectations have pushed gold lower. Wagner's explanation is that markets price in what the Fed will do, namely raise rates, and higher rates are poison for gold. He cites CME FedWatch showing roughly an 80% probability of a December hike, and says that expectation is what is driving the market. He calls the relationship between inflation, oil and gold a much more complex read than before.
“what we saw was higher inflation expectations took gold lower. And the reason being because they took in what the Fed will do which is to raise rates. And that's poison for gold prices.”at 2:29
The David Lin Report: Gold's Violent Reversal: How Far Does Rally Go? | Gary Wagner ·
Gold's bottom looks in; next solid target is about $4,400 if it closes above resistance.
Gold found support near $3,800 and rebounded to about $4,100 to $4,155. Wagner calls the $4,000 area a key level and the bottom a good start to a return to bullish sentiment, but says gold is not out of the water yet. The first resistance zone matches the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which runs from the $4,700s to $4,000. Wagner wants to see a close above that zone, not just a wick, before the next target. If that breakout occurs, he sees about $4,400 as the next solid target within weeks, and calls that still an exceptional year. He holds gold himself, buying small incremental amounts.
“Our next real solid target is about 4,400. Okay. And I think I think if it goes there, that's still an exceptional year, unquestionably.”at 11:26
The David Lin Report: Gold's Violent Reversal: How Far Does Rally Go? | Gary Wagner ·
Gold is in a long-term bull market; short-term swings are noise to buy through.
Wagner believes gold is in a long-term bullish market, with deep peaks and valleys along the way. He compares it to real estate and quality stocks, which he says tend to perform over ten to fifty years despite sharp drops. He argues that a 25 to 30 percent decline in a year is noise, and that dollar-cost averaging through the swings is the way to lower the chance of losses. He holds gold himself and buys small increments, so his view is grounded in his own position.
“because I believe long term it's in a bullish market. The question is how long of a term? In other words, what do you have to wait?”at 14:05
The David Lin Report: Gold's Violent Reversal: How Far Does Rally Go? | Gary Wagner ·
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Gold sells off alongside equities because traders sell it to raise cash for margin calls.
When stocks sell off, Wagner's explanation for gold falling is that holders need liquidity to cover margin calls. Gold is a liquid asset they can sell to raise capital without liquidating the positions they want to keep. He says leveraged professional and institutional traders are liquidating whatever they can, holding on because they believe the selloff will pass. He sees this as a continuing feature of trading behaviour. He does not claim this is a permanent break in gold's hedge role.
“if stocks are selling off the reason I believe gold tends to sell off is they need liquidity to cover their margin calls.”at 16:32
The David Lin Report: Gold's Violent Reversal: How Far Does Rally Go? | Gary Wagner ·
The Iran conflict's oil spike squeezes goods makers, and oil in the 80s still pressures prices.
Wagner says oil is the catalyst for the market's moves and that a military conflict with Iran drove oil above $100 a barrel. Oil has since fallen but remains in the 80s, not at $100. He estimates that 40 to 80 percent of produced goods carry a petroleum component, a rough guess he flags as uncertain. For manufacturers, higher input costs squeeze profit margins. Under pressure, companies are reluctant to raise prices because consumers walk away, so the cost shock hits margins and makes goods and services costs jump quickly.
“I don't know what percentages. I'm just gonna throw a number out, but it could be as much as 40 to 80% of the goods that are produced have a component of it using petrol. We are a petrol society.”at 20:51
The David Lin Report: Gold's Violent Reversal: How Far Does Rally Go? | Gary Wagner ·
Gold's safe-haven bid during the Iran military action has been muted compared with past crises.
Wagner notes that gold has not reacted to military action in the way you would expect of a safe haven. He says he doesn't know whether investors have become jaded to geopolitical shocks. He points to the lack of a flight-to-safety bid as a reason gold has not benefited from the Iran conflict, while the budget deficit could become a risk that would push gold down in future. He presents this as an observation rather than a firm forecast.
“oddly, we're not seeing the same kind of reaction to the safe haven in gold when the military action came in this time. I don't know if individuals are jaded to it.”at 21:59
The David Lin Report: Gold's Violent Reversal: How Far Does Rally Go? | Gary Wagner ·
Gold could retest $4,750 and the $4,975 high, but likely not before about two years.
Wagner names $4,750 as the first achievable number, which he says might take about two years, though it is not yet ridiculous. He also says the higher high at $4,975 came in and the tops up there will get hit again, but he doesn't expect that this year. He suggests five or ten years for those tops, and says $5,000 has already become a benchmark. He frames these as long-dated targets, not year-end calls.
“The first achievable number, it might take two years to go, but it's not yet ridiculous, is $47.50.”at 24:46
The David Lin Report: Gold's Violent Reversal: How Far Does Rally Go? | Gary Wagner ·
The oil spike from the US-Iran war is pushing inflation expectations, which is why the Fed may hike.
Crude oil has risen sharply since the US-Iran war began, and around $90 a barrel is an extended level not seen in a while. Because oil is embedded throughout the economy, the spike feeds into inflation and, more importantly, inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve is concerned about those expectations. Its only tool to control runaway inflation is slowing the economy, which means raising rates. Wagner therefore treats the oil spike as the source of the inflation concern that is driving the expected Fed hikes, even though oil has eased slightly this week.
“Crude oil has gone up tremendously, since there was a war between The United States and Iran... That's going to have a tremendous impact not only on inflation, but inflation expectations. It's those expectations that the Federal Reserve is concerned about.”at 11:08
The David Lin Report: Gold's Next Crash? ‘Much Lower Prices’ Below THIS Level | Gary Wagner ·
Fed rate hikes and rising real yields will pressure gold; one hike is priced in, two would hurt more.
Wagner says gold is a non-yielding asset with an inverse relationship to interest rates, so higher rates pressure gold. The Fed had been accommodative, holding rates around 3.5-4% for a long time. Hawkish September minutes and Fed Watch probabilities, about 90% for at least one hike by December, mark a major policy shift. He expects one hike, possibly two, with the first in about three years. The shift is driven by inflation expectations tied to the oil spike, and rate hikes are the main thing that could cap gold's upside. Gold investors have largely priced in a single quarter-point hike, so a second hike would change the picture and could bring more downside pressure. Once real yields rise, investors may rotate into other assets, shifting sentiment from risk-off to risk-on. Gold can hold certain levels while inflation rises only if the Fed does not turn aggressive.
“Gold tends to react to the anticipation of further rate hikes... They're anticipating nothing short term, but by the end of the year, higher rates. And they've been accommodative, and that's a major shift in the Federal Reserve. And that could absolutely put more bearish influence on gold.”at 13:01
The David Lin Report: Gold's Next Crash? ‘Much Lower Prices’ Below THIS Level | Gary Wagner ·
Oil would fall slowly after the Iran conflict ends, because prices lag well behind the real-world events.
Wagner says that if the military action with Iran ends as Trump has said, oil would eventually come down. He has seen oil prices lag greatly behind the real-world developments. Even after shipments resume through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices do not fall quickly. Because the oil price stays elevated for some time, inflation pressure and the Fed's hawkish response continue, and that keeps pressure on gold.
“It would bring oil down, but oil would come down slowly... I've seen it tend to lag greatly behind that real data. In other words, once military action is over, they're shipping it back through the strait. We don't see oil prices come down quickly.”at 18:29
The David Lin Report: Gold's Next Crash? ‘Much Lower Prices’ Below THIS Level | Gary Wagner ·
Gold's correction may be ending; holding the 4,000-4,175 support could lead to new highs within 6-8 months.
Gold fell from a record near $5,500 and a roughly $800 rally from about $4,000 to $4,800 to about $4,100, a retracement near 78%. Wagner calls this correction acceptable but extremely deep. He says he sees no bullish signals yet, only potential support. A close back above roughly $4,175 would be needed to restore bullish momentum. The stochastic oscillator was oversold at the earlier peak, and the Elliott wave model assumes an ABC correction ending near the 4,000-4,200 zone, which would start a new motive phase. If that holds, he expects gold to move up over the next six to eight months, with a new high possible by Q1 or Q2 of next year. A break below 4,000 would violate that bullish model and make the move a bear market, with much lower prices possible, including around 3,600. He puts the probability of the bullish scenario at a decent level but says he personally does not expect a break below 4,000.
“My longer term studies actually believe that we could in fact see the market bottom at this point. And if it does, I am looking for prices by, let's say, the first or second quarter of next year to move and maybe even go to a new high.”at 24:40
The David Lin Report: Gold's Next Crash? ‘Much Lower Prices’ Below THIS Level | Gary Wagner ·
Silver's correction is shallower and its downtrend is losing momentum, but there is no real bullish sentiment yet.
Silver fell from about $91 in mid-May to about $55, then recovered to about $72 before correcting again. This correction is much shallower than gold's. The key level to hold is around $57.50, a zone built from candles in late July and early August. Wagner says he sees no real bullish sentiment yet. A Heikin Ashi chart shows large red candles during the sell-off, with the recovery candles getting very small and the bodies turning into spinning tops. He reads this as the power leaving the downtrend, so silver could trade sideways or drift lower, but without the intensity of the late-August or mid-May sell-offs.
“It's much shallower than that. But the key area that we want to see silver hold is going to be about $57.50... The power is coming out of that downtrend. Now it could trade sideways. It still could trade lower, but not with the intensity that we saw.”at 26:37
The David Lin Report: Gold's Next Crash? ‘Much Lower Prices’ Below THIS Level | Gary Wagner ·
Gold is the better precious metal to trade now because it has been outperforming silver in both rallies and corrections.
Wagner and Joseph, another technician, have noticed that gold has been outperforming silver in percentage gains on the way up and, to some degree, on the way down. Silver usually outperforms gold in rallies and also outperforms in corrections. Because this pattern has reversed, with gold leading in both directions, Wagner says he would rather trade gold than silver for now.
“Gold has been outperforming in terms of percentage gains on the way up and, to some degree on the way down. Typically, you will see silver outperform rallies and outperform corrections. We've seen that now occur in gold rather than silver.”at 29:46
The David Lin Report: Gold's Next Crash? ‘Much Lower Prices’ Below THIS Level | Gary Wagner ·
Shows
- The David Lin Report · 2 episodes
Ask your AI what Gary S. Wagner thinks
Chorus gives Claude, ChatGPT and other assistants every view Gary S. Wagner has shared on the shows it covers, next to everyone else's. Ask where they stand, what changed, and who disagrees.
Chorus reports what speakers said. It isn't investment advice.