Washington Weekly Podcast: Midterm reflections, Orientation week, Congressional leadership

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 135 speakers in other episodes, 123 bullish and 92 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Shane Lieberman · UBSBearish

  Lawmakers will be skeptical of granting NVIDIA favorable treatment after the China access concerns.

  Lawmakers are concerned about Chinese spying and Chinese access to advanced technology. They are also concerned about what the administration knew about NVIDIA and when. Members are calling for classified briefings, and many want Jensen Huang to testify. Shane says NVIDIA had been pursuing more favorable treatment from lawmakers, and he expects many lawmakers will be very skeptical of granting that now. He calls this early innings with more to come, and expects long-term fallout.

  “[NVIDIA had been] pursuing more favorable treatment from lawmakers and I think a lot of lawmakers are going to be very skeptical of granting anything like that now.”at 11:43

US elections & politics

• Shane Lieberman · UBS

  Democrats will hold a significant House majority of about 250 seats, giving them flexibility to pass bills.

  Shane argues the House result will be a significant Democratic majority, not the close race projected. He puts Democrats at roughly 250 seats. Passing a bill on the floor needs 218 votes, so with that margin Democrats can craft legislation even if some centrist or progressive members oppose it, and still have enough votes to pass it.

  “we're looking at Democrats having a house majority and a significant one, not close as had been projected. Roughly, Democrats will have about two fifty seats and when you have to get two eighteen votes to get a bill passed the floor, they'll have pretty some flexibility there”at 5:16

• Shane Lieberman · UBS

  Most Senate Republicans are comfortable with John Thune as leader despite a few delay calls.

  A few Senate Republicans called for delaying leadership elections to mount a stronger challenge to Thune. Shane thinks the majority of Republican senators feel good with Thune. They may disagree with some of his decisions, but they accept that this comes with leadership, so they are comfortable with him leading for the next few years.

  “I think the majority of Senate Republicans feel good with John Deuter as doing as their leader. They may not agree with every decision he makes but they understand that that's part of being in leadership”at 7:41

• Shane Lieberman · UBS

  Chuck Schumer lacks enough votes now but will more likely than not remain Senate Democratic leader.

  Several newly elected and existing Democratic senators have said they will not back Schumer. He has a base of support but not enough votes yet, and may need to make concessions. Shane expects he still wins. Durbin's retirement opens the No. 2 slot to Brian Schatz, who is more progressive than Schumer. Shane says this helps Schumer appeal to progressive senators, who get a leadership voice in the team.

  “he does not have sufficient votes at this time to become the leader. However, I think it's more likely than not he will become the leader.”at 8:43

US–China AI & chip race

• Shane Lieberman · UBS

  The NVIDIA episode could push forward a bill to track advanced AI chips and other chip export proposals.

  Lawmakers have been examining options to require tracking of advanced AI chips. Shane was not sure that bill would have moved before, but he argues the NVIDIA developments could propel it and other AI chip export proposals to move forward. The reasoning rests on concerns about China gaining access to technology lawmakers don't want it to have.

  “lawmakers have been examining options that would require tracking of advanced AI chips and that bill, I'm not sure if it was going to previously move, but this could propel that proposed legislation and other proposals with respect to AI chips and their export to possibly move forward.”at 11:18