UBS On-Air · October 9, 2026 · 19 min

Talking Markets Podcast Series (Private Credit) with Marc Lipschultz (Blue Owl Capital)

With Marc Lipschultz

Summary

Marc Lipschultz of Blue Owl Capital, interviewed on the UBS On-Air Talking Markets series, argues that the 2026 narrative of private credit trouble is disconnected from results, citing over 8% returns in direct lending and over 11% in asset-backed alternative credit for Blue Owl over the last twelve months. He contends that higher-for-longer rates, which he says the firm long anticipated, favour floating-rate private lending, and that Blue Owl's strategies do not depend on a macro bet on rates. On real assets, he highlights triple-net lease products that finance corporate critical assets such as factories, data centers and healthcare facilities, with over $10 trillion of such assets cited. On AI, he calls the infrastructure buildout one of the largest capital transformations in history and says calling AI a bubble is wrong, while conceding valuation excesses, particularly in billion-dollar pre-money Series A rounds for companies without revenue. He closes by saying private markets belong in individual portfolios, though not one size fits all and not at the expense of public holdings.

Key takeaways

Marc Lipschultz on AI bubble & tech valuations: AI will transform the economy so it is not a bubble, but valuations show clear excesses.
Marc Lipschultz on Venture capital & startups: Series A rounds at billion-dollar pre-money valuations for companies without revenue will lead to problems.
Marc Lipschultz on US rates & the Fed: Higher-for-longer rates have proven right; consensus calls for rate cuts have repeatedly been wrong.

What was said, by company and theme

3 views from 1 speaker. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript (how).

AI bubble & tech valuations

Marc Lipschultz · Blue Owl Capital
AI will transform the economy so it is not a bubble, but valuations show clear excesses.
Lipschultz splits the bubble question into direction of travel and valuations. He says AI's transformation of the economy over the next one, five and ten years is nearly indisputable, citing how it is touching every part of the economy, so calling it a bubble is wrong. On valuations he says there are plenty of questions and it is safe to say there are excesses. Blue Owl avoids depending on valuation at entry or exit and instead finances the buildout with investment-grade partners.
“That direction, and frankly even we can say it's in large magnitude, I think that's nearly indisputable. ... So that's not a bubble. ... In valuations there are plenty of questions to be asked. It is safe to say there are excesses.”at 6:40

Venture capital & startups

Marc Lipschultz · Blue Owl Capital
Series A rounds at billion-dollar pre-money valuations for companies without revenue will lead to problems.
Citing conversations with experienced venture capitalists in Silicon Valley, Lipschultz says Series A rounds at billion-dollar pre-money valuations are being done for companies with no business model or revenue. He argues that this will lead to challenges and problems. He adds that the AI space is high-volatility, with some big winners and many failures.
“Series A rounds are being done at billion dollar pre money valuations ... for an enterprise that doesn't yet have a business model or revenue, everyone understands that's going to lead to some challenges, some problems.”at 8:08

US rates & the Fed

Marc Lipschultz · Blue Owl Capital
Higher-for-longer rates have proven right; consensus calls for rate cuts have repeatedly been wrong.
Lipschultz says rate cuts were consensus a year before and at the start of the year, but rates stayed high and sticky, so that consensus has been persistently wrong. He says Blue Owl long held that higher-for-longer was likely and that has proven true. He also says the idea that rates will drop precipitously is hard to foresee, and that there are many upward pressures, which shapes how the firm constructs portfolios.
“I can say we've long had a view that higher for longer was likely and that's proven true.”at 11:37

Topics

AI bubble valuations
data center capex
direct lending in rising rates
higher-for-longer rates
private credit performance
private markets for individual investors
startup valuations
triple net lease real estate

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