Anthropic Investor Day, CoreWeave Shares Sink, Media Stock Roundup 10/14/26

Anthropic

Across the shows: 32 speakers in other episodes, 15 bullish and 33 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bradley Tusk · Tusk VenturesBearish

  Anthropic's roughly 34x revenue IPO valuation looks questionable given falling token prices and cheaper rivals.

  Assuming the IPO happens next month, a $74 billion revenue run rate against a $2 trillion valuation and $500 billion in CapEx commitments implies about a 34x revenue multiple, roughly triple Meta's or Alphabet's. Tusk argues the company faces heavy competition, token prices are falling and compressing margins, and cheaper models are available. Data center politics and rising interest rates add to the pressure, so he sees the company in a tough spot.

  “if you look at assuming that that Anthropix, you know, IPO next month does happen, it's a pretty questionable bet... So at a $74,000,000,000 run rate ... but with a $2,000,000,000,000 valuation and 500,000,000,000 in current CapEx commitments, it's a 34 x multiple on revenue.”at 11:33

• Bradley Tusk · Tusk VenturesBearish

  Going public would add quarterly revenue pressure that pushes Anthropic toward riskier, more advanced models.

  CEO Dario Amodei calls AI an existential risk, and the S-1 discusses that risk, so adding public-market pressure is contradictory. Quarterly reporting and revenue and EBITDA expectations would push the company to keep releasing more sophisticated models to avoid failing investors. Tusk frames this as a binary choice between safety and capital. He also notes Amodi signed Trump's self-regulatory pledge rather than push for government regulation.

  “And if you were that worried about it, why would you add on the pressure of the public markets on top of all the pressure you already face? ... And that just creates the exact kind of existential risk that he talks about.”at 21:35

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bradley Tusk · Tusk VenturesBearish

  CoreWeave's debt-funded capex is hard to make pay as yields rise and data-center permitting slows.

  Revenue has to exceed the cost of generating it, and CoreWeave's revenue is dwarfed by its debt and capex. Rising yields from accumulated borrowing make its roughly $35 billion capex need very tough to finance. Political opposition to data center construction also stretches build times, which raises project costs for any project being underwritten.

  “And that's why the yields are moving up so fast and that makes it really hard for companies like CoreWeave where they've got $35,000,000,000 that they need to do in capex.”at 3:07

Doctronic

• Bradley Tusk · Tusk VenturesBullish

  Doctronic, an AI medical advisor, is generating real revenue and growing very fast.

  Doctronic uses AI to triage patients, connect them via telemedicine, and renew prescriptions in Utah, which lets it reach the pharmacy and doctor markets. Tusk says it generates real revenue and grows very quickly as a result. He presents it as the kind of application-layer AI business he prefers because it does not need to fund data centers or GPUs.

  “through its use of AI to get into the pharmacy world and through its ability to work through telemedicine and doctors generate real revenue and it is growing incredibly fast as a result.”at 6:19

Netflix

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rich Greenfield · LightShed PartnersBullish

  Netflix's push for creator talent is working and should lift engagement over the next year.

  Netflix does not report engagement the way others do, and Greenfield argues other streaming services are used far less relative to their price. He says Netflix is leaning hard into the creator economy, going after top YouTube talent. Google and YouTube are pressuring talent not to work with Netflix, which he reads as proof the strategy is working. Many of the deals have not launched yet, but he expects them to improve engagement over the next year. He still says a breakout hit is needed and none has come in 2026. He calls the talent push the early seeds of an engagement improvement.

  “A lot of the deals haven't even launched yet, but I think as you look out over the next year, what Netflix is doing with talent like Salish Matters and Mark Rober, This is working, and I think is the early seeds of an improvement in engagement.”at 37:36

The Walt Disney Company

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rich Greenfield · LightShed PartnersNeutral

  Disney's rebound lacks a real growth strategy change; cost cuts alone won't drive a breakout.

  Greenfield says Disney's stock is at about the same price it was in 2015, so a 108 price is only better than 90. The real question is whether it can break out, which depends on growth. Investors want to know how growth under new CEO Josh D'Amaro will differ from Bob Iger's approach, and whether it is more of the same. So far Disney has done a lot of cost cutting but has not changed strategy. Until it does, he is skeptical that the rebound can become a real breakout.

  “Right now, we've obviously seen a bunch of cost cutting, but we haven't seen a real change in strategy.”at 39:07

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 21 speakers in other episodes, 22 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rich Greenfield · LightShed PartnersBullish

  Meta's stock is not expensive, and its Muse AI has made Meta credible in consumer AI.

  Greenfield says Meta's stock is not expensive and has bounced off its summer low, when nobody cared about its AI work. Muse has made the company cool again in the last six weeks. Users are starting to trust Meta more, to the point of giving it credit card details and access to Google Drive, files and QuickBooks. He argues there is now a real belief that Meta has a right to win in AI. He also says that in the media sector, AI is more exciting than traditional media stocks, which points to Meta as the leader.

  “But I think there's now a true belief that Meta has a right to win in AI.”at 39:54

US stock market outlook

• Ryan Detrick · Carson Group

  The bull market has much more life left as AI spending continues and earnings keep rising.

  Bull markets historically age far longer than expected, and every bull market that reached its fourth year made it to a fifth. This one is up about 120% on a price-return basis, with only two larger in history. Year-to-date S&P 500 earnings are up 29% while multiples are down 15%, and Detrick expects earnings to stay strong in a solid economy. He argues the AI spending and trade is not over, and the lack of excitement means multiples have room to rise.

  “This bull market probably has a lot more life left to it because that AI spending and trade, is not over yet in our opinion.”at 26:17

• Anneka Treon · ING

  The bull market rests on earnings growth, with third-quarter growth above 25% possibly a bonanza.

  She says the bull market depends only on earnings growth. If third-quarter earnings match analyst expectations, it would be the third straight quarter of growth above 25%. Despite markets sitting near all-time highs, price-to-earnings multiples have derated significantly this year and sit around decade norms. She describes this as an earnings bonanza and says the bull run has legs as long as earnings stay broad across sectors.

  “The bull market is hanging upon one thing and one thing only, and that's earnings growth... if Q3 earnings turns out to be as strong as analysts expect, this would be the third quarter in a row of earnings growth north of 25%.”at 26:35

• Ryan Detrick · Carson Group

  The S&P 500 has been higher one year after every midterm election, a pattern he expects to continue.

  Detrick cites a record of 19 straight midterm cycles in which the S&P 500 was higher one year after the election day. He admits this will not be a guarantee, and he does not invest on seasonals alone. He still thinks the market is in a bullish time frame and expects the pattern to hold, which is why he says investors should remember it when the election comes and goes.

  “19 midterms in a row. If you go from the day of the midterm elections and go out one year, 19 times in a row, the S and P 500 has been higher.”at 31:40

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Bradley Tusk · Tusk Ventures

  Alternative compute startups can cut data center energy needs and ease the political pushback.

  Tusk Ventures has been investing in startups that offer alternative forms of compute. These can make data center energy needs much lower and compute more efficient. He argues that lower energy use improves the political process around data centers and reduces the cost of operating them. This is presented as a route to making money in AI without relying on the GPU-heavy buildout.

  “for us, for example, we've been investing in startups that can do alternate forms of compute that can make the energy needs for data centers a lot lower and make the compute a lot more efficient”at 4:51

• Bradley Tusk · Tusk Ventures

  Data-center buildout plans and compute needs may not have been economically sound from the start.

  Tusk argues that the assumption that AI requires ever more compute, data centers and energy, which underpins the buildout, may not hold economically. Most consumers and businesses are satisfied with cheaper tools, so the revenue needed to pay for the enormous cost of compute may not materialize. He calls the belief that huge spending will just work out magical thinking that never works.

  “a lot of the underlying assumptions that were made that led to the plans for this many data centers, this much compute need, this much everything else really might not have been that economically sound in the first place.”at 6:42

International equities

• Anneka Treon · ING

  Emerging markets look cheap on multiples while their earnings growth is exciting.

  She contrasts the S&P 500, which trades near decade-norm multiples, with emerging markets, which look actually cheap on a forward multiple basis. She adds that earnings growth estimates and delivered earnings growth in those markets are very exciting. The combination of low multiples and strong earnings is why she is positive on the region.

  “Then you look at emerging markets and you see, wait a minute, from a multiple perspective, emerging markets are actually cheap.”at 30:01

• Anneka Treon · ING

  Europe's roughly €10 trillion in idle household deposits is a new source of equity demand as investing grows.

  European households hold a large share of their wealth in deposits, with less than a third invested versus more than half in the US. Her firm's survey found that 80% of under-35s plan to invest, while 40% of Europeans still see investing as gambling, and that is changing at the margin. She calls this a new lever of capital supply that will affect the balance of demand and supply for capital.

  “In Europe, we have €10,000,000,000,000 lying in deposits.”at 33:53

Open-source AI models

• Bradley Tusk · Tusk Ventures

  Free open models like Meta's Llama already meet most users' needs, challenging paid AI subscriptions.

  Paid subscriptions to Claude or OpenAI typically cost $20 to $200 a month. Meta's Llama and other tools are available for free, and that covers what 99% of consumers and businesses need. Tusk argues this means the most expensive compute is not needed for most use cases, which puts the economics of frontier-model businesses at risk.

  “if you wanna use Claude or OpenAI, you're using a subscription model paying typically 20 to $200 a month. You can go on Meta and use Lama for free.”at 7:37

Europe's economy

• Anneka Treon · ING

  Europe is more challenging because of heavy energy dependence and a possibly harsh winter.

  She says the European energy situation is much heavier than in the US, with much more energy dependency. A cold winter would make it a harsh one. She still sees opportunities at the stock level, such as a European energy company trading almost 50% cheaper than its US counterpart, but she treats the macro backdrop as the more difficult one.

  “If we look at Europe, look, Europe is more challenging. The energy situation in Europe is much more heavy. There's much more energy dependency.”at 30:15

US Treasuries & yields

• Anneka Treon · ING

  Bond yields now offer a real alternative to equities; cost of capital has normalized from ultra-low levels.

  After a decade of artificially low rates, the cost of capital has returned to more normal levels. Investors are now paid handsomely to move to risk-off positions and sit in Treasuries. This raises the hurdle for equities, so investors must check whether each company's returns on capital exceed its cost of capital. She says the market is not paying enough attention to this shift.

  “Bond yields are the most important thing to look at right now... There is an alternative. You are paid handsomely to, you know, to go risk off and sit in treasuries.”at 32:24