Dan Ives & Gene Munster Talk Nvidia, Jensen Huang

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 136 speakers in other episodes, 122 bullish and 92 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gregory C. Allen · Decision Tree ResearchBearish

  Nvidia is in a very tough place because no one else is set up to lead it.

  Allen uses Huang's own F1 analogy, in which he described Nvidia as an F1 car built around the driver, and says everyone else at the company is a specialized component such as an engine, wheel, axle or turbocharger. On that basis he argues that no one else at Nvidia is set up to be a leader, so the company faces a very tough position after Huang's departure.

  “There is no one else who is set up to be a leader.”at 2:30

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  Nvidia is in a great place over the next couple of years despite Huang's departure.

  Munster says he is a Nvidia shareholder and expects the next couple of years to be in a great place for the company. He gives no detailed numbers for this view. It sits alongside his separate, more cautious view on long-term leadership.

  “I'm a shareholder of NVIDIA. So I think that the near term, I would describe that as the next couple years, are gonna be in a great place.”at 3:42

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBearish

  Long-term outlook is extremely difficult for Nvidia without its founder; founder-led urgency can't be replaced.

  Munster argues that generational tech companies are typically founder-led, with founders who carry a wartime sense of urgency, citing Jobs, Zuckerberg, Karp, Musk and Huang. He cannot name an example of exponential returns continuing after a founder left. He says it is definitionally impossible for Nvidia to have founder urgency now, though urgency is a scale. He argues the board's main job is to find a successor with that urgency, because that will decide competitiveness in years three through ten.

  “To answer your question about how difficult is it long term, it's extremely difficult.”at 3:55

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bearish

  Huang's exit is a dark day; Nvidia needs an outside successor and lacks a succession plan.

  Ives calls Huang's exit a dark day and a black-eye moment, and a gut-check moment for Nvidia. He thinks the company will need someone from outside, citing names such as Tim Cook, Nikesh Arora and Sundar Pichai, though he says Colette Kress is the best internal candidate. He says the company's visibility is a blessing as the stock rises and a curse as it falls, and that it had no succession plan.

  “I think they're gonna need someone from the outside.”at 5:39

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Nvidia will stay the world's most dominant chipmaker, two to three years ahead of rivals.

  Ives argues that Nvidia will continue to be the most dominant chip company in the world and that it is two to three years ahead of anyone. He ties this to Huang's built work, saying the AI revolution would not be discussed without Nvidia.

  “NVIDIA is gonna continue to be the most dominant chip in the world, and that they're two to three years ahead of anyone.”at 9:31

AI: overall outlook

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset Management

  Huang's diminished voice as AI evangelist is a bigger risk to the AI trade than regulation.

  Munster argues that Huang got investors comfortable investing in the AI trade more broadly, beyond Nvidia. He expects many investigations and some negative impact on Nvidia's business. He says the bigger risk to the broader AI trade is what happens when such a prominent spokesperson's voice is diminished, not regulation.

  “To me, that's the bigger risk to the broader AI trade. It's less about regulation.”at 10:31

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset Management

  AI adoption is still very early; Amazon's two-year AWS guidance shows high growth ahead.

  Munster says AI adoption is only about 1% and the industry is still early on the S-curve, not yet in the growth phase. As evidence, he points to recent large-company earnings. Amazon gave only one-quarter guidance, but he says it gave two years of AWS guidance above its highest growth rate, which signals credibility and an early market. He says this is what keeps him confident in owning Nvidia and staying long the AI trade.

  “what gives us confidence in owning NVIDIA and continuing to be long this trade is that I just think we're just still so early.”at 11:16

US–China AI & chip race

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  Export-control loopholes let Nvidia chips reach China while US customers wait until 2028.

  Ives cites loopholes in Singapore and concern over how many chips, possibly around 15% of Nvidia's total, ended up in China. He notes that US customers may not get an Nvidia chip until 2028. He argues the chips should be going to the US first. He expects many investigations on both sides of the aisle, with Congress and regulators focused on Nvidia chips and the Megaspeed case.

  “So why are they getting in China when they should begin here?”at 8:57

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  Trillions in AI infrastructure spending will continue despite the Nvidia setback.

  Ives compares the Nvidia setback to a party broken up by police with a warning, saying the party will keep going. He says the trillions of dollars of AI spending will still happen, at around $3-4 trillion, so the setback is a gut-check moment rather than a turning point for the buildout.

  “the trillions of dollars of spending is still going to happen, three to four trillion.”at 12:37