Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 15th, 2026

Anthropic

Across the shows: 37 speakers in other episodes, 17 bullish and 38 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Sébastien Page · T. Rowe PriceBullish

  Anthropic's revenue jump from about $5B to around $70B annualized shows real end-user AI demand.

  Page cites Anthropic as an example of AI demand. Annualized revenue was about $5B a year earlier and is reportedly around $70B now, with about $100B talked about by year end. He calls this a massive illustration of the money being spent to implement AI and says it is about $65B of revenue created in a year, comparable to large consumer companies. He takes it as evidence of real end-user demand and of models getting incrementally better. His firm is a partner and user of Claude, which is a customer relationship rather than a stake.

  “When I look at Anthropic, it's a great example... a year ago, they had about 5,000,000,000 in annualized revenues. And if they're at 70 now... that shows real end user demand.”at 7:10

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 34 speakers in other episodes, 27 bullish and 9 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Ted Mortonson · BairdBullish

  Nvidia is three to four years ahead on AI infrastructure and software, including its Nemotron open models.

  Mortonson sees a big deal in the mix between frontier and open-source models. He says Nvidia is three to four years ahead on infrastructure and software and points to its Nemotron open-model push as part of that lead. He also notes a rumoured Nvidia investment in a new open-source lab founded by former Google DeepMind staff, whose model he calls Beam. The argument is that Nvidia's software and infrastructure position puts it ahead of the open-source wave.

  “Nvidia is three years ahead of it, three, four years. Jensen's three, four years ahead on infrastructure and software. What he's doing with Nemotron”at 15:51

Alphabet

Across the shows: 14 speakers in other episodes, 11 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Ted Mortonson · BairdBullish

  Alphabet is in great shape, having raised about $85B and sitting on a large liquidity cushion.

  Asked whether Google and Microsoft are fine given the neocloud sell-off, Mortonson points to Alphabet raising around $85B and getting through the debt window before others did. That gives it a lot of liquidity, so he says it is in great shape. The point is that Alphabet can fund its AI spending from a strong position while smaller leveraged players struggle.

  “They raised what 85,000,000,000? They got through the window, you know, before anybody got through the window. They're sitting on a lot of liquidity. So they're in great shape.”at 16:46

Microsoft

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Ted Mortonson · BairdBullish

  Microsoft is set for a blowout quarter, with Copilot strong and Azure growing over 40%.

  Mortonson expects a blowout number from Microsoft at its next report. He credits Nadella with doing a great job on Copilot and says Azure is off to the races at over 40% growth. He adds that Microsoft generates about $25B of free cash flow per quarter and cannot easily spend it all, so it is in a catbird seat on funding AI.

  “If you look at Microsoft, I think they're going to have a blowout number. I mean, I think Copilot is... Nadella has done a great job on Copilot and Azure is off to the races, I mean 40 plus percent.”at 16:56

Micron Technology

Across the shows: 12 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Ted Mortonson · BairdBullish

  Micron has one of tech's best balance sheets and is raising prices, but wait for the stock to base.

  Mortonson calls Micron one of the names to watch. It has one of the best balance sheets in tech, with about $33B of free cash flow per quarter, and it is raising prices even though the stock is down sharply. He says to watch for the stock to base and an uptick, and admits nobody knows when that happens. The case rests on balance sheet strength and pricing power, with timing still open.

  “I think one of the names you should watch is Micron, one of the best balance sheets now in tech, 33,000,000,000 of free cash flow per quarter. They're raising prices.”at 18:44

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Sébastien Page · T. Rowe Price

  Capital still flows to solid AI builders, but overinvestment and leverage are rising, so fragile players may fail.

  Page says capital is still available for the build-out. Well-funded cloud players like Microsoft and Alphabet have corporate spreads that are not high and comparable to or lower than the average IT company. But there is definitely overinvestment in many spots of the trade and more leverage than before. He expects some fragile players to get in trouble and sees this as winners and losers, while the top-down view stays healthy and the trade could continue for six to twelve months.

  “There's definitely overinvestments in many spots of that trade, and there's more leverage than there was.”at 8:13

• Ted Mortonson · Baird

  Hyperscalers are fine and the AI build-out is not rate-sensitive, because demand outstrips supply.

  Mortonson argues demand far outstrips supply, so hyperscalers can charge what they want and show whatever return on invested capital they choose. They can carry the debt. He disputes the idea that the build-out is rate sensitive. The concern he sees is not hyperscaler solvency but how much debt goes onto the balance sheets of the wider group, which is a separate question.

  “It's not rate sensitive. The hyperscalers can charge anything they want because demand is way out stripping demand. I think they can show a return on invested capital anything they want. They're fine.”at 13:33

• Ted Mortonson · Baird

  Clients dislike chipmaker-backed AI financing and special purpose vehicles, which push debt off balance sheets.

  Mortonson says his clients hate the so-called Bank of AMD, Bank of Nvidia and Bank of Broadcom, meaning chipmaker financing of AI data centers. Their objections are an implied guarantee that is soft but still there, and special purpose vehicles that move debt off a company's balance sheet into another entity. He presents this as a pothole in the cycle: financing is one of the risks even though the cycle itself is strong.

  “They just don't like the implied guarantee. It's a soft guarantee, but the other thing they don't like is these special purpose vehicles that are pushing debt off the balance sheet of some of these companies and moving it to another entity.”at 14:50

• Libby Cantrill · PIMCO

  State-level opposition to data centers will bring moratoriums and friction the market is not pricing in.

  Cantrill says there is strong antipathy to data centers, which stand in for affordability, big tech concentration and safety concerns. Voters at the local level are not approving them. With 36 governor races in November and many candidates running against data centers, she expects more pushback by 2027, and a statewide moratorium is the easiest political tool. Places with heavy planned capacity like Ohio and Georgia are most exposed. She thinks the market is pricing AI build-out assumptions that are hockey-sticking and does not price in this friction.

  “You're just seeing so much antipathy for data centers in particular... voters are not sort of voting for or not approving these data centers. And I think you're gonna see even more of that come 2027.”at 22:19

AI: overall outlook

• Sébastien Page · T. Rowe Price

  AI end-user demand is accelerating, so the AI trade looks healthy for the next six to twelve months despite volatility.

  Volatility is coming because the AI trade is more levered than before, with winners and losers. Fundamentally, demand is still rising. Quarterly token spend is up 700% year over year, and token demand is up 18x as tokens get cheaper. About 20% of enterprises run at least one agentic process, with consultants estimating 80% eventually. Page sees adoption as only beginning, so he is optimistic on the trade for six to twelve months while warning it is not for the faint of heart.

  “Well, there is going to be volatility in the AI trade because it is more levered than it was. But fundamentally, I am optimistic for the next six to twelve months on that trade.”at 2:19

AI chips & semiconductors

• Sébastien Page · T. Rowe Price

  Buy AI chip weakness selectively, favouring bottlenecks like memory and packaging over broad chip exposure.

  Asked whether he would buy chip names after an 11% drop over about six sessions, Page says yes, but selectively. T. Rowe's analysts look at each bottleneck in turn: chips, memory, packaging, and energy supply. They might like some chipmakers and memory names. He says the AI trade needs active management and picking spots, with winners and losers in each phase. A Taiwan trip by the team reported still-strong demand for the basic components at the start of the AI chain.

  “Yes, selectively... They're looking at all the bottlenecks one after the other, right? Chips, memory. So there might be chipmakers that they might like, memory that they might like, something called packaging”at 6:13

US Treasuries & yields

• Sébastien Page · T. Rowe Price

  Rates are trending higher across inflation, issuance, deficits and oil, so T. Rowe cut its short-duration position.

  Page says many factors drive rates and they all point the same way: inflation, growth, issuance, deficits, international rates and oil. He compares the puzzle to Agatha Christie's Murder on the Orient Express, where every suspect is guilty. The ten-year first rose on hotter-than-expected inflation, then fell on growth and AI-trade worries, but the underlying drivers still point up. T. Rowe has closed about half of its short-duration position and is looking at closing more.

  “They all generally, as a trend, pointing in the same direction of higher rates. We have closed about half our short duration position a few weeks ago,”at 11:05

IPOs, M&A & deal activity

• Ted Mortonson · Baird

  The equity IPO window has shut, with five high-profile IPOs postponed in three weeks, and it must reopen to fund debt.

  Mortonson argues the huge demand for AI debt needs the equity market window to stay open alongside it. In the last three weeks it has not. Five high-profile IPOs have been postponed. He says both the debt and equity windows have to open for this financing to work. He sees the Anthropic and OpenAI IPO delays as digested by the market, with the safety questions already addressed, so they are not the main concern.

  “The demand for debt is so high that the equity market window also has to stay open. And in the last three weeks, it hasn't. We've lost five really high profile IPOs that have postponed.”at 15:06

AI pricing & unit economics

• Ted Mortonson · Baird

  The shift to open-source models lowers token costs, so applications may commoditise in a race to zero.

  Mortonson notes a movement toward open-source models, which lowers token costs. He asks whether applications become commoditised as a result and answers that it is a concern, a race to zero, and a problem, though he adds 'we'll see'. The view is hedged, but the mechanism is clear: cheaper open models compress the price of tokens, and with it the value of AI applications built on top.

  “There is a movement to open source, so lower token costs... That's a concern, it's a race to zero. That's a problem, isn't it? We'll see.”at 16:16

US stock market outlook

• Ted Mortonson · Baird

  Stocks are in the fear phase, and a sharp near-term drop could come quickly, though no companies go bust.

  Mortonson says the market has moved from over-exuberant speculation and greed to concern, and now to fear. If it reaches panic, the move will happen quickly, so he expects a sharp move lower and says the decline is maybe in the third or fourth inning of a nine-inning game. He also argues the macro is far too strong for companies to go bust, and calls the selling price discovery rather than systemic stress.

  “We've gone from over exuberant speculation and greed... We're kind of in the fear phase right now. If we get to the panic phase, it's gonna happen real quick.”at 19:34

AI regulation & safety

• Libby Cantrill · PIMCO

  US public opinion is more AI-skeptical than Europe's, so politics will push more AI friction than markets expect.

  Cantrill says AI has moved from hero to zero in a short time, with poll respondents showing animosity that is worse than for nuclear reactors. Big tech lost trust after promises about kids on Instagram, and no credible trusted voice exists on the other side of the AI debate. US polling is more skeptical of AI than in Europe, which runs against the usual innovation culture. Her conclusion is that politics leads policy, so the market is not pricing enough political friction, which could affect valuations.

  “If you look at the polling in The United States relative to the rest of the world, [the US] we are more skeptical of AI. We wanna kind of shut it down more than Europe.”at 25:59