Speaker · Updated
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen: latest market views
Top Traders Unplugged
Summary
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is the founder and host of the Top Traders Unplugged podcast network, which interviews systematic investors, CTAs and trend followers, and has a background in the managed futures industry.
Chorus has 6 views from Niels Kaastrup-Larsen across 3 episodes on Top Traders Unplugged since October 17, 2026.
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Europe may not be ready for its defense ramp-up, and buying US weapons makes it weaker.
Kaastrup-Larsen agrees that Europe is pushing toward 5% of GDP on defense, but says there are major risks because he is not sure Europe is ready. If Europe can't buy the weapons it needs from the US, because the US is spending faster than it can produce them, Europe becomes weaker overall. He sees this as a risk that accompanies the spending increase.
“I do think though there are some major risks in that, because I'm not entirely sure that Europe is quite ready for it”at 25:23
Top Traders Unplugged: SI425: Passive Investing Is About to Face a Real Test ft. Cem Karsan ·
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Retail access to triple-leveraged and inverse ETFs has been a mistake, as investors don't grasp the risk.
Niels argues the industry has shot itself in the foot by giving people financial products such as triple-leveraged and short ETFs. He says people have no clue about the risk they are taking on or how easily leverage is available to them. He thinks taking these products back would be difficult once they have been made available.
“I do think we've really shot ourselves in the foot by giving people a lot of the financial toys that they have at their disposal today, such as triple leveraged, you know, short ETFs... where people just have no clue what they're getting into in terms of risk”at 56:29
Top Traders Unplugged: SI425: Passive Investing Is About to Face a Real Test ft. Cem Karsan ·
French sovereign debt is being stress-tested, with 10-year yields near 5%, reminiscent of Eurozone crisis.
The 10-year French yield is about 5%, up roughly 165bp over the last twelve months and about 50bp in the last month, a 24-year high. Niels compares this to the Eurozone sovereign crisis in the South and argues that large countries whose sovereign debt is being tested can see this kind of stress. He says it is hard to see how the situation goes away once it reaches that stage, so markets may have to deal with it for a while longer.
“I think we're trading now the ten year is just about 5% now in France. That's up 1.65% in yield in the last twelve months... it is reminiscent a little bit about some of the crisis we've had in Euroland”at 2:35
Top Traders Unplugged: SI423: Why Trend Following Might Outlast the AI Arms Race ft. Mark Rzepczynski ·
Equity gains are earnings-driven while multiples contract, and the buyback tailwind is fading.
Niels says the 'FIMO' (earnings momentum, measured by actual earnings per share) has been soaring while FOMO, reflected in P/E multiples, has been contracting. He is sceptical that the way some companies account for higher valuations, with the gains showing up in earnings, can hold up indefinitely. He also argues that the buybacks that supported equities over the past few years are coming to an end and that new equity supply is rising, so competition for capital is fierce.
“FIMO is measured, by actual earnings per share, and that's been soaring... FOMO... reflected in the [P/E] multiples, and they've been contracting a little bit.”at 5:20
Top Traders Unplugged: SI423: Why Trend Following Might Outlast the AI Arms Race ft. Mark Rzepczynski ·
AI's heavy energy demand ties it directly into the energy story, compounding the current geopolitical and rates pressure.
Niels describes a perfect storm. Geopolitical tension pushes oil prices up, which pushes rates up and raises the US government's financing bill, so Treasury supply rises. At the same time, companies are competing for capital, driven largely by AI. He adds that AI ties directly into the energy story because it is so energy-demanding. Combined, this could leave traditional portfolios vulnerable for a longer time.
“not only that, AI ties directly into the energy story because it's so energy demanding.”at 18:47
Top Traders Unplugged: SI422: Why Trend Following Rewards Patience ft. Katy Kaminski ·
Commodity ETFs' construction, including roll yields, can badly hurt actual performance; investors should be careful.
He warns that many investors assume they can simply buy a commodity ETF, but some are built in challenging ways. The mechanics, roll yields in particular, can seriously hurt returns. He also notes that commodities have long periods where they drag on a portfolio, and recommends getting expert advice before buying them. Katy adds that index exposure is energy-heavy, so commodity ETFs may be undiversified.
“because a lot of people think, oh, commodities, I can just buy an ETF. But hold on. There are some really challenging ways some of these ETFs are put together. It has to do with roll yields”at 45:42
Top Traders Unplugged: SI422: Why Trend Following Rewards Patience ft. Katy Kaminski ·
Shows
- Top Traders Unplugged · 3 episodes
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