Speaker · Updated
Harry Stebbings: latest market views
20VC
Summary
Harry Stebbings is the founder and host of the 20VC podcast and founder of the venture firm 20VC, known for interviewing leading venture investors and startup founders.
Chorus has 12 views from Harry Stebbings across 8 episodes on 20VC since October 8, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Serval, Uber Technologies, Instinct and Fireworks AI; bearish on Cognition AI and OpenAI.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- Cognition AIBearish ·
- ServalBullish ·
- Uber TechnologiesBullish ·
- InstinctBullish ·
- Fireworks AIBullish ·
- Meta PlatformsBullish ·
- OpenAIBearish ·
What they talk about most
- Venture capital & startups · 2
- Cognition AI · 1
- Serval · 1
- Uber Technologies · 1
- Instinct · 1
- Robotics & autonomous vehicles · 1
- Fireworks AI · 1
- Enterprise AI adoption & AI software · 1
- Bending Spoons S.p.A. · 1
- Meta Platforms · 1
- OpenAI · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Uber TechnologiesBullish
Uber is a strong buy because it is cheap, despite agentic disruption worries.
Harry says he agrees with Bill Ackman that Uber is a strong buy because it is very cheap. The conversation argues that agentic disruption is unlikely in ride-hailing, since booking a car through a chat assistant is a worse user experience than opening the app. Harry frames the valuation as the attraction, and the discussion does not dispute that the stock is cheap.
“I'm with Bill Ackman. I think Uber's a banger of a buy right now, though. I mean, it's so cheap.”at 31:54
20VC: 20VC: OpenAI Cuts Valuation to $1.25TRN | Public Market Meltdown: GOOG Loses $500BN in 12 Hours | DoorDash Buys Instacart for $17BN | Kalshi Raises $1BN and Cognition Eyes $80BN Valuation ·
ServalBullish
Serval has the best enterprise adoption he's seen and far more multiple upside than Cognition.
Harry praises the Serval team and product and says enterprise adoption is better than he has ever seen. He argues the upside is a pure multiple on cash: at a $3B valuation with a 10x outcome very likely, the multiple is better than at $30B Base10 (where he says you have to squint) or at Cognition near $80B. His caveat is that Serval raised only about $150M, so a large fund check would be hard to deploy there.
“Jake and Tatiana at [Serval] are incredible. The product's amazing. The enterprise adoption is better than I've ever seen.”at 44:48
20VC: 20VC: OpenAI Cuts Valuation to $1.25TRN | Public Market Meltdown: GOOG Loses $500BN in 12 Hours | DoorDash Buys Instacart for $17BN | Kalshi Raises $1BN and Cognition Eyes $80BN Valuation ·
Cognition AIBearish
At ~$80B, Cognition's 10x chance is limited; the multiple is clearly better at Serval.
Harry says the chance of a 10x at Cognition is much lower than at Serval, because Cognition is already near a trillion-dollar-equivalent outcome after dilution. He sees the multiple as clearly more evident at Serval. He also flags that Cognition is competing in a crowded field of coding agents, positioned fourth in the market, which limits how much of the market it can take.
“The chance to get a 10x at Cognition, to Jason's point, gosh, we're nearly hitting a trillion there. So, yeah, I think the multiple is clearly much more evident there.”at 45:09
20VC: 20VC: OpenAI Cuts Valuation to $1.25TRN | Public Market Meltdown: GOOG Loses $500BN in 12 Hours | DoorDash Buys Instacart for $17BN | Kalshi Raises $1BN and Cognition Eyes $80BN Valuation ·
InstinctBullish
Instinct at $30B is a no-brainer: downside protected by hyperscaler buyers, upside as the Western super app.
He argues the downside is protected because the team and strategic market would attract Microsoft and other hyperscalers, who would buy this in a heartbeat. The upside is the long-promised super app for the West, covering finance, identity and security, which could expand into subscriptions, ads, and transactions across all sales and ecommerce. He calls it one of the most no-brainer deals for a fund like Andreessen Horowitz. He concedes the data is limited but argues the potential payoff justifies the bet.
“Microsoft would buy this in a heartbeat... One, so your downside, I do think, is protected. And I think your upside is really, as we said, the super app of the West”at 40:36
20VC: 20VC: Anthropic Files S1 Ahead of $2TRN IPO | Instinct's Rumoured $30 Billion Fundraise | Microsoft Laysoff 27,000 While Meta Taps Equity Markets for $95 Billion Capex Spending Spree ·
Robotics & autonomous vehicles
Robotics application layer is too early; Stebbings avoids the timing risk and prefers robotics datasets and infrastructure.
Stebbings says he does not like robotics investments because the field is far from where it needs to be and timing matters. He sees the infrastructure and datasets behind robotics as interesting. He sees application-layer companies such as robot cleaners and robot builders as too early. He calls humanoid robots obviously far off.
“I think we are so far from where we need to be, and I do think that timing is important.”at 50:27
20VC: 20VC: Why Robotics Will be 100x Bigger than Coding Agents | Inference Will Be a $10TRN Market: What No One Sees | Why Software Investors are F***** Today with Naveen Rao, Unconventional ·
Venture capital is concentrating in a few names, leaving most companies unfundable, worse than ever before.
Harry says venture is broken because he keeps meeting companies that fit a profile of strong growth and profitability but cannot raise money. He cites a $20M ARR company growing 600-700% and profitable, yet VCs are not interested. He ties this to capital concentrating in fewer and fewer names, leaving everything else wholly unfundable, which he has not seen more of before in venture. Jason and Rory agree that strong-looking companies in the mid-tier struggle to raise.
“I'm seeing that more and more with this concentration of capital going to fewer and fewer names and everything else being wholly unfundable, which more so than I've seen ever in venture before.”at 5:47
20VC: 20VC: Trillion or Bust: The New VC Game | Coreweave Sell-Off Creates Panic | Town at $1B, Anduril at $90B: Revenue Multiples Out of Control | General Atlantic Eyes IPO & Modal Raises $750M at $15.75B ·
Venture is about to heat up as SpaceX cash flows back to LPs and recycles into startups.
Stebbings says LPs are receiving cash now from SpaceX and are seeing Anthropic on the horizon, with OpenAI hoped for in Q1 or Q2. He expects that cash to recycle back into the venture ecosystem, with LPs committing more capital. The result, in his view, is a hotter venture market.
“And I think the venture market's about to get a lot hotter, by the way, because a lot of people are starting to get cash back now from SpaceX.”at 53:04
20VC: 20VC: Trillion or Bust: The New VC Game | Coreweave Sell-Off Creates Panic | Town at $1B, Anduril at $90B: Revenue Multiples Out of Control | General Atlantic Eyes IPO & Modal Raises $750M at $15.75B ·
Fireworks AIBullish
Fireworks will win the open-model inference race, and 20VC has money invested there.
He says competition among AI infrastructure providers has deepened, but expects Lagora and Harvey to do well in legal, and base 10 and Modal to do well too. He picks Fireworks as the winner, which is why 20VC's money is invested there.
“When we look at a fireworks, I think base 10 and modal will do well too. I think fireworks will win, which is why my money is there.”at 23:14
20VC: 20VC: You Need $1BN To Do Seed Today: The Untold Truths of Venture | Who Wins and Who Loses in the Next Decade of VC | Why Margin and Price Matter Less in a World of AI with Sameer Dholakia, Bessemer ·
Enterprise AI adoption & AI software
AI customer support is crowded and uninteresting, with about 20 well-funded providers and incumbents.
Stebbings says the customer support space is wildly uninteresting. He cites about 20 providers, all funded with over $100 million in the last eighteen months. He adds that incumbents such as Salesforce and Atlassian are present, along with older players such as Intercom and Talkdesk. The implication is that a crowded market with big incumbents limits the opportunity for new entrants.
“I think the the customer support space is, like, wildly uninteresting. 20 providers all funded with over 100,000,000 in the last eighteen months. You got Salesforce and Atlassian and big incumbents there too.”at 47:32
20VC: 20VC: Horizontal vs Vertical Agents: Who Wins | Model Routing: Commodity or Increasing in Value | The Future of the Inference Market | Why Founders Should Take Discounts for Tier 1 Firms with Harrison Chase, LangChain ·
Bending Spoons S.p.A.Uncertain
With 3% organic growth, Bending Spoons must buy large companies to keep up its 80% growth.
Harry says Bending Spoons has to find large enough revenue-based companies to buy, not small ones, since smaller companies do not move the needle. He cites its roughly 3% organic growth, so reaching 80% growth requires big acquisitions. He adds that churn at the acquired companies forces it to raise prices to the maximum just to keep them running.
“It's 3% organic growth. So if you wanna grow 80% like they are, you gotta buy big stuff.”at 57:04
20VC: 20VC: The Pro-Rata Battle: Valar Atomics Sues Day One Ventures | Meta Returns to the AI Frontier With Muse Wonder | NVIDIA Eyes $30B Reflection Deal & Jev Raises $870M at a $7.5B Valuation ·
OpenAIBearish
OpenAI's Dots has been very unimpressive; its demo was poor, tech-centric and out of touch.
He thinks the Dots demo was incredibly poor, very tech centric, and it asked how to book flights for enterprise usage, which he found out of touch. He contrasts it with Meta's Muse launch, which had a phenomenal reception, and calls Dots very unimpressive. The consumer-facing element of Dots was underwhelming.
“And I respectfully think DOS has been very unimpressive. I thought that demo was incredibly poor, very tech centric.”at 1:01:10
20VC: 20VC: Cognition vs Factory: Vinod Khosla Creates a Storm | OpenAI Nears $70B Run Rate: Anthropic Under Threat | ElevenLabs Doubles Its Valuation to $22B & Salesforce Buys Listen Labs for $2B ·
Meta PlatformsBullish
Meta's Muse was a phenomenal launch with a phenomenal reception, the strongest AI launch of the moment.
He says Muse was a phenomenal launch and has had a phenomenal reception, which he thinks isn't discussed enough. He contrasts it with the underwhelming reception of OpenAI's Dots. The point is that the launch's quality and reception were strong.
“I think an additional that just isn't discussed enough is Muse was a phenomenal launch and has been a phenomenal reception.”at 1:01:10
20VC: 20VC: Cognition vs Factory: Vinod Khosla Creates a Storm | OpenAI Nears $70B Run Rate: Anthropic Under Threat | ElevenLabs Doubles Its Valuation to $22B & Salesforce Buys Listen Labs for $2B ·
Shows
- 20VC · 8 episodes
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