Speaker · Updated
Brian Nowak: latest market views
Morgan Stanley
Summary
Brian Nowak is Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Internet Research and a Managing Director, a multiple-time top-ranked analyst covering online advertising, e-commerce, the shared economy and autonomous driving, with prior roles at Susquehanna and Nomura.
Chorus has 6 views from Brian Nowak across 2 episodes on CNBC Power Lunch and Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley) since October 20, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Amazon.com.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- Amazon.comBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
The AI selloff reflects ROIC doubts, and power and semis are the first names investors sell.
Investors are concerned about the return on invested capital from all the AI capex, and they want to know which company will deliver faster revenue growth. The sharp declines in AI infrastructure names are a symptom of that concern. Historically, the power, silicon and hardware names are the first to be sold when the market doubts revenue will justify early spending. He says the software and infrastructure layers need to produce more revenue and ROIC, and this is what the market will look for going into 2027.
“I think there are growing concerns about the ROIC or revenue that can be generated by all of this CapEx.”at 14:31
CNBC Power Lunch: Tech Stocks Slide as AI Capex, Apple Earnings and Oil Drop Dominate Headlines 11/2/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Hyperscaler capex will rise from about $1T in 2026 to $1.5-1.6T in 2027, with one more step-up.
Hyperscalers are expected to spend about $900 billion to $1 trillion in 2026, rising to $1.5-1.6 trillion in 2027, about 60% growth. Morgan Stanley's bottoms-up model counts chips, racks, data center construction and power costs. He expects one more significant CapEx step-up in the fourth quarter, when companies give 2027 visibility, and says Morgan Stanley's numbers are above consensus in some cases.
“I think they'll be raising CapEx significantly one more time in the fourth quarter because at that point, all of them will give visibility into 2027 CapEx.”at 17:58
CNBC Power Lunch: Tech Stocks Slide as AI Capex, Apple Earnings and Oil Drop Dominate Headlines 11/2/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
The 2028 capex step-up will be much smaller than 2027, but spending is not falling off a cliff.
He expects a big step-up in capex in 2027 but a much lower step-up in 2028, for several reasons including constraints. He argues this is not a cliff, just slower growth. The market is pricing in when the last big second-derivative step-up in spend comes, which he says is 2028.
“while there's a big step up in CapEx in 'twenty seven, I think the step up in CapEx in 'twenty eight is much lower for a variety of reasons... It's not a cliff. It's just not going to grow as much.”at 19:35
CNBC Power Lunch: Tech Stocks Slide as AI Capex, Apple Earnings and Oil Drop Dominate Headlines 11/2/26 ·
Amazon.comBullish
Amazon is his top idea because AWS will enable Gen AI diffusion, which is underappreciated.
AWS accelerated to almost 40% growth, and management talks about confidence in 40%-plus growth in 2027 and 2028. AWS could reach a trillion dollars of revenue in five to ten years. Enterprises adopting Gen AI tools all run through AWS and Azure, which is why he thinks the hyperscale business is underappreciated. He also sees the retail business gaining share and becoming more efficient through Gen AI and robotics.
“Our top idea right now is Amazon. I think that what we're really underappreciating on Amazon is that Amazon Web Services is going to be a critical enabler of Gen AI diffusion across the economy.”at 20:47
CNBC Power Lunch: Tech Stocks Slide as AI Capex, Apple Earnings and Oil Drop Dominate Headlines 11/2/26 ·
Enterprise AI adoption & AI software
Agentic AI tools could address $30-40 trillion of consumer and enterprise spend.
Morgan Stanley's sizing puts potential addressable spend for agentic tools at $30 to $40 trillion across consumer and enterprise. Consumer use cases include shopping, travel planning and holiday shopping. Enterprise adoption is emerging in vertical agents for legal and healthcare, and in broad-based agents from larger private companies.
“we've sized potential addressable markets of $30 to $40,000,000,000,000 of spend on both the consumer side and the enterprise side that we think have been addressed by [agentic] tools.”at 3:52
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): AI’s Next Winners: Signals From Private Markets ·
Robotics & autonomous vehicles
AI is becoming physical; robots and drones will reshape defense, warehousing, delivery and farming within 2-5 years.
Physical AI is already showing up across industries: drones and new defense mechanisms, warehouses, delivery, and the future of farming. Humanoids and home robots are a longer-term story. He argues that over the next two, three and five years, many physical and robotic AI implementations will significantly change how businesses operate.
“AI is going to get physical through new types of robots that impact the entire globe. We're seeing in multiple industries already.”at 9:01
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): AI’s Next Winners: Signals From Private Markets ·
Shows
- CNBC Power Lunch · 1 episode
- Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley) · 1 episode
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