Why Privacy Coins Are Quietly Crushing the Market | Trading the Markets

Bitcoin

Across the shows: 14 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBullish

  Bitcoin is in a new bull market; the bottom is in and chop is expected before higher prices.

  Bitcoin bounced cleanly off the 20-week moving average after a strong July-August-September run and is still well above the 10-week average. Monthly price broke above the 76.3 candle-body high, which has now flipped to support. Weekly RSI is not diverging from price, so momentum is still solid. Financial conditions are loosening after the indicator flipped red six weeks earlier, and equities have bounced. Daily and weekly charts show potential bottoming patterns. He expects a retest of the roughly 75-76 zone and more choppiness, but still believes the bottom is in and Bitcoin will be higher in a year.

  “I still am of the belief that the bottom is in and that we're in a new bull market regime. It's just that it's early and we're gonna see chop.”at 8:10

• Kris Bullock · Real Vision

  Altcoins are higher beta to Bitcoin and will outperform it in percentage terms on the next leg up.

  Layer-one tokens such as Solana and Ethereum are all higher beta to Bitcoin, so they move up more and down more. They are sitting at support levels such as the 10-week and 20-week averages and are waiting for Bitcoin's next leg up. When that trend resumes, these tokens should rip harder and, in percentage terms, beat Bitcoin for a period.

  “all of these are gonna rip harder and they're gonna go up more than Bitcoin did and they'll probably, you know, on a percentage basis, eclipse Bitcoin for a period”at 28:30

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionUncertain

  Bitcoin needs to reclaim $82K; below that, $76K is support, and it needs looser financial conditions.

  Bitcoin's weekly breakout level at about $82K needs to be reclaimed, and if it fails, the speaker is watching $76K as support. He wants financial conditions to loosen first. That means credit spreads and bond yields rolling over and the dollar resuming its downtrend, so that money gets cheaper and flows through the system. Equities are starting to show this, and he wants it to reach Bitcoin. He says the steps so far are incremental.

  “I'd like to see Bitcoin get back above the weekly sort of breakout level back here at 82 and kind of reestablish that.”at 57:14

Hyperliquid

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBullish

  Hyperliquid's chart structure remains strong; it is a hold after a Kraken infrastructure partnership.

  The weekly candle briefly flipped red at the start of the week, but the token bounced after a Kraken parent company announced it will use Hyperliquid as back-end infrastructure for DeFi perpetuals trading. Price has been in a steady uptrend since its January bottom, making higher highs and higher lows, and it has held its 200-day cloud throughout. Nothing on the chart signals a sell or a breakdown, so he keeps it as a hold on structure.

  “I think hyperliquid continues to look really good... there's nothing in here that says sell or it's rolling over or it's losing its structure”at 35:21

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBullish

  Hyperliquid earns about $10M a week and burns nearly all of it, so its token has strong value accrual.

  Hyperliquid generates around $10M a week in revenue and burns about 99% of it, which gives the token a strong value-accrual mechanism. The speaker uses it as the benchmark against NEAR, which lacks that setup. He also says Hyperliquid has been in an uptrend all year and has outperformed most assets.

  “Not like hyper liquid where hyper liquid is raking in $10,000,000 a week and burning 99% of that basically.”at 38:50

Litecoin

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBearish

  Litecoin's trend has broken down; he would not hold it and would exit below $282.

  The weekly megatrend flipped red and the token lost its green dots, which would have triggered an exit. It has lost its 10-week moving average and is threatening the 20-week average. Price is at a double bottom, and a close below the 282 level, which he calls the last line of defense, would mean getting out. A bounce from the double bottom shows better momentum, but the larger moving averages are rolling over. He says it's already time to get out.

  “I would not be in Lit based on this. So like this red weekly megatrend would have caused me to exit back here.”at 15:32

Pump.fun

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBullish

  Pump.fun is a highly profitable business whose token holders gain from buybacks and burns.

  Pump.fun made about $67 million in the last 30 days, roughly $13 million a week in revenue. That makes it third in all of crypto behind only the two large stablecoin issuers, and ahead of Hyperliquid, Tron and Polymarket. It buys back and burns tokens, so value flows to token holders. Content creators on the platform also earn money, adding to its activity. Its price chart is volatile but still in a bullish structure, with higher highs and higher lows.

  “They made $67,000,000 in the last thirty days. Like they're averaging $13,000,000 a week in revenue... They buy back and burn. They accrue value back to the token holders.”at 19:13

Ethereum

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBearish

  Ethereum faces a resumed long-term decline versus Bitcoin because value no longer accrues to ETH.

  ETH/BTC has been in a long downtrend since September 2022. It broke above its 200-day moving average briefly but has rolled back over and is now three weeks below the 20-week average, which he fears will resume the larger downtrend. Network upgrades moved activity to Layer 2s, which now capture most of the fees, so ETH gets little of the value. Users no longer need much ETH to transact, and the high-gas NFT era is gone. Staking yields are low compared with USDC, so he sees no reason to buy or hold ETH unless something changes.

  “value doesn't accrue to ETH directly anymore like it once did. You don't need a lot of ETH to transact on Ethereum anymore... there's no reason to buy Ethereum. There's no reason to hold Ethereum.”at 26:30

Pawns

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionUncertain

  Pawns may be reversing on the daily chart, but he wouldn't buy until it closes above the 20-day average.

  After a long bleed from its peak, Pawns bottomed on a DeMark 13 exhaustion signal on the daily chart. It has since rallied, with two consecutive daily closes above the 10-day average, which had acted as resistance. A new DeMark setup count is starting. Confirmation requires closes above the 20-day average and then the 10-day crossing above the 20-day with both sloping up. He calls it an aggressive entry and says he wouldn't touch it until those closes appear.

  “we need to see... I wouldn't personally touch it until we've gotten a couple of closes above the 20 and it looks like this is really gonna continue.”at 32:47

NEAR Protocol

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBearish

  NEAR is overvalued at $4.58 relative to its revenue and the value returned to token holders.

  NEAR's protocol earns good money and runs buybacks and burns, but the buybacks do not fully remove supply, and the network still has inflationary properties and token overhang. Bullish retail speculation may push the price up anyway, but the price still needs to catch up to the value the network generates. Unlike Hyperliquid, which burns nearly all its large revenue, NEAR lacks those mechanics, so the speaker urges watching price action against its earnings.

  “I would still say even at $4.58, it's probably overvalued relative to the amount of money that they have coming in and relative to the amount of money that they're sort of giving back to the token holders.”at 37:45

Uniswap

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBullish

  Uniswap will keep being a leading DeFi protocol; the token looks strong and is worth owning.

  Uniswap is the largest DeFi protocol by swap volume, it keeps reinventing itself, and its V4 release is generating money. Its price rose sharply from the August breakout and remains about double the August breakout level. Its revenue has been hurt by lower Robinhood transaction activity, but the speaker still sees it as a long-run winner.

  “Uni is huge and it's not going anywhere. It's the biggest DeFi protocol in the space practically in terms of like swap decks anyway.”at 40:24

Circle Internet Group

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionNeutral

  Circle is lagging crypto because USDC supply has stalled, so stablecoin adoption is not growing.

  Circle has been flat and sideways, has not broken above its 200-day moving average, and has not joined the September crypto rally. The speaker ties this to USDC market cap, which has bounced between about $71bn and $76bn and has not grown since its March peak. Crypto activity and Bitcoin buying continue, but without new stablecoin adoption Circle lacks a catalyst. The speaker expects it to move once Bitcoin breaks out.

  “I think this is in large part because we're not seeing stablecoin market cap increasing.”at 41:58

Galaxy Digital

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionUncertain

  Galaxy Digital should be doing better, but credit and AI data-center problems weigh on its fundamentals.

  Galaxy holds many businesses, and some are hit by credit problems and the rollout delays of AI data centers, which hurts its fundamentals and the stock. The speaker thinks the company has good assets and cites Jeff Dorman's view that it is undervalued, but he does not commit to that view himself.

  “I feel like Galaxy should maybe be doing better than it is. Partially working against it is the fact that it's got its hands in so many things that some of which have been impacted by the credit issues and the data center rollout issues in the AI space.”at 43:40

Zcash

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBullish

  Zcash will keep benefiting from privacy demand and a real use case; the trend looks strong.

  The speaker says the privacy narrative is sticky, driven by new privacy laws being implemented in Europe and elsewhere. He calls Zcash a good product with a real use case and expects it to keep benefiting. Its price has been a standout this cycle, it has rallied on consecutive weekly green candles, and it is close to all-time highs. Almost no other crypto asset is near its highs, which he says supports the strength of the narrative.

  “And I think it's because it's coming back to a lot of the new laws, privacy laws that are being implemented in Europe and places like that that are driving a lot of this. ... fundamentally Zcash is obviously a good product and has a use case. And it's going to continue to benefit.”at 45:35

Monero

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBullish

  Monero is strong and more decentralised than Zcash, but limited exchange access holds it back.

  Monero is at all-time highs and is more widely distributed and fully decentralised, with no team behind it, so it is arguably better than Zcash on decentralisation. Its price has lagged Zcash's sharply, and it has been down against Zcash since its July 2025 peak. Few exchanges list it and some jurisdictions block it or treat holders as suspect, which he says is why it does not do as well as it could.

  “Monero is much more broadly distributed. It's fully decentralized.”at 48:29

Venice.ai

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBullish

  Venice has been in an uptrend all year and is holding strong, so it deserves attention.

  Venice has been in an uptrend for most of the year and has outperformed most assets, like Hyperliquid. Although it is not green this week and sits below its megatrend, it still has green trading signals and a green trend line. The speaker says it is holding up well and is worth watching.

  “Venice is another one that's really been in an uptrend for this... For the entirety of this year essentially”at 52:00

Basic Attention Token

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionBullish

  BAT is in a big correction; he would buy near a 61.8% retrace at about $0.12.

  BAT is in a large correction, and the speaker wants the decline to finish before he buys. He used a Fibonacci retrace and expects a healthy pullback to the 61.8% level at about $0.12. If the price holds that level and bounces, he will start buying, and if it breaks below, he expects more downside. He thinks BAT could run once the correction ends.

  “BAT was another one that caught my attention that also is in the process of a big correction. But I think once this bottoms out, I'm going to be looking to add some of this.”at 52:37

Bittensor

• Kris Bullock · Real VisionNeutral

  BitTensor is stuck in a range since November and needs a breakout above its long-term downtrend.

  BitTensor has traded in a wide range since the November bear market, with large swings and no lasting trend. Its 200-day moving average has been falling and has only recently flattened, and the price has repeatedly given back its gains. The speaker says it is not going to zero and has positives, including tracking the market and a solid August and September breakout, but he needs to see it break its long-term downtrend before he is convinced.

  “I just wanna see it kind of break out of this chop that it's been doing. I feel like it's been more choppy than most.”at 55:35

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Kris Bullock · Real Vision

  Financial conditions tightened sharply, but credit spreads remain historically low and conditions are now loosening.

  His financial conditions indicator is an equal-weighted blend of real yields, credit spreads, the dollar index and equity volatility. It flipped red about six weeks earlier as the dollar rallied, the VIX rose and the 2-, 10- and 30-year yields climbed. Credit spreads tightened to near a new high from March, but remain very low on a historical basis, so he treats them as only a caution flag. The spike above 4 on the spread measure is the level that would signal real trouble. Over the last three weeks the dollar, yields and spreads have rolled over, and equities have bounced, so conditions are loosening.

  “Initially I wasn't too bothered by it because it was still really, really historically low... It's not really anything to worry about. It's more of just kind of a caution flag.”at 2:50