Fortius CEO Jim Messina Talks Midterm Elections

US elections & politics

• Jim Messina · Fortius Global

  Historic early-vote turnout among Black and young voters bodes well for Democrats in the midterms.

  Messina says he watches early-vote numbers rather than polls, which bounce around. He points to historic early-vote turnout among African American and young voters, two demographics he follows closely. Young voters rarely turn out at high rates in midterms, and he cites big early numbers in Georgia and Texas. He also reads North Carolina's early vote, where 38.3% of ballots came from registered Democrats and Republicans were at 26%, as a sign of big suburban-women turnout and Republicans voting two or three points below usual. He concludes both parties now expect Democrats to win the House, with the open question being by how much.

  “The early vote numbers show historic numbers with two targeted demographics that I really follow very closely, African American voters and young voters.”at 3:26

• Jim Messina · Fortius Global

  Democrats may hold governorships in every battleground state, which he says predicts presidential outcomes.

  Messina argues the most predictive factor in a presidential election is which party holds the governorships, so governor races matter most for the presidential map. He says Democrats could win governorships in every single battleground state after tonight. Georgia is still to be decided, and Nevada is a tied race, and he names these two as the key races he is watching.

  “The most predictive factor on a presidential election is who has the governorships in these things. There's a chance after tonight the Democrats have governorships in every single battleground state.”at 5:28

• Jim Messina · Fortius Global

  Flipping Texas, Kansas or South Carolina would reshape the presidential map and force a 50-state strategy.

  Messina says a Democratic win in a Texas statewide race, such as Talarico winning, would make Texas a battleground presidential state. He lists Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina as states that now look better for Democrats, and states Obama did not compete in. He argues that if Democrats win the House and Senate through rural and more Republican districts, that success shows a 50-state strategy is needed for 2028.

  “[A 50-state strategy] has to, because if we win the House and if we win the Senate, we will have won it because of rural more red districts.”at 6:15

• Jim Messina · Fortius Global

  Midterm campaign spending is excessive; voters are sick of it and Spain's cap shows a better model.

  Kailey Leinz notes this is the most expensive US election cycle, with about $12 billion spent on candidates and over $500 million in Texas alone. Messina says the country does not need to spend this much across all states, and voters are over it. He contrasts the US with Spain, which legally caps campaign spending at 29 million euros, has a six-week campaign window, and still has higher turnout than the US. He says the US system makes people like him rich, but the spending is ridiculous, and the country does not need $12 billion to litigate a midterm.

  “Do they need to be spending this much money all across the country? No. And voters are over it and they're sick of it.”at 8:57

• Jim Messina · Fortius Global

  Obama is the unifying Democratic figure and his role is helpful until a nominee emerges.

  Messina argues Obama can unite the Democratic Party's different wings, and calls him the gold standard of every wing. He says Obama holding the party together until a nominee is chosen is very helpful and exactly what the party needs. He adds that new voices will emerge after the presidential primary, which he sees as the natural transition point. He notes Obama and Trump are still the biggest draws on the campaign trail a decade later.

  “Barack Obama is the gold standard of every wing of our party and him holding it together until there's a Democratic nominee, I think is very very helpful.”at 9:51

• Jim Messina · Fortius Global

  Democratic Socialists of America gains are bad for the party; economic moderates are winning elections.

  Messina rejects the perception that the Democratic Party is moving far left. He says that in three-quarters of primaries the moderate or conservative Democratic candidate won, and cites Roy Cooper's Senate win in North Carolina as an example. He argues that on the ground, economically focused Democrats are the ones winning, and he says DSA-affiliated candidates who could enter Congress are a bad development. He says their policies are wrong and that is how Democrats lose elections.

  “I personally think the DSA is a bad development for my party, and I'm gonna continue to say that over and over and over because I don't think their policies are right, I think that's how you lose elections.”at 11:19