Suffolk University's David Paleologos Talks US Midterms

US elections & politics

• David Paleologos · Suffolk University Political Research Center

  Democrat Amy Acton wins Ohio governor's race by five or six points despite the Libertarian vote.

  The Libertarian candidate, Don Kissick, is polling around 3% and acts as a buffer between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Some voters who dislike the Ramaswamy ad will never vote Democratic, so they either stay home or vote Libertarian. Acton may only reach 51 or 52%, but he expects her to win by five or six points.

  “That vote, and it's gonna be around 3%, has been a buffer between Amy Acton, the democrat, and Vivek Ramoswami [Ramaswamy], the republican. So you could see a break where Amy Acton only, I say only, gets to 51 or 52, but still wins by five or six.”at 5:27

• David Paleologos · Suffolk University Political Research Center

  Democrat Sherrod Brown leads the Ohio Senate race by three points, driven by independents.

  Suffolk polled the Ohio Senate race twice, in September and again more recently. Brown led by three points in both. He attributes the lead to independents swinging away from Republicans. Brown leads by 27 to 28 points among self-identified independents, and he says the national pattern is the same as in 2018 but driven by independents who left the Republican party, not by an embrace of Democratic values.

  “we polled it twice. In September, we had brown plus three. We had brown plus three in the more recent poll.”at 6:13

• David Paleologos · Suffolk University Political Research Center

  Economic conditions alone point to a large Democratic House gain in the midterms.

  He says the economic backdrop should be the focus. Consumer confidence fell from 139 in 2018 to the low nineties now, and interest rates were 5% or less in 2018 but are now over 7%. Trump's approval is in the mid-to-high thirties, against 44% in October 2018. From this he expects the House to land around [240] to [250] seats after the vote. The seat figure is partly garbled in the transcript, so the exact number is uncertain.

  “I'm looking at a house that could be [240] to [250] after tomorrow”at 7:27

• David Paleologos · Suffolk University Political Research Center

  A Democratic win in Iowa's Senate race would trigger a wave into Ohio, Michigan, Kansas and Nebraska.

  Suffolk polled Iowa twice. The first poll had Republicans winning both races, and the second had Democrats winning both. Conventional wisdom says Republicans will hold Iowa because it is far enough from Trump, but he sticks with his poll showing Democrat Josh Turek winning. If Turek wins, he says it becomes automatic for Ohio and Michigan and opens up Kansas and Nebraska. If Turek loses, the election night could run later and closer.

  “And if Turek wins... That's gonna be an automatic for Ohio and Michigan and it opens up Kansas and Nebraska. If Turrick loses,”at 8:16

• David Paleologos · Suffolk University Political Research Center

  Democrat El-Sayed is set to win Michigan's Senate race by about 250,000 votes.

  About 2 million people have already voted, and about 2.5 million remain. Most of the remaining voters are Republicans who do not vote early, and the undecided share is very low. Current polling shows El-Sayed ahead by 250,000 votes, and there aren't enough votes left to change that. He also notes the ballot had six Senate candidates, so some voters may choose third-party options, but that doesn't alter the outcome he expects.

  “the undecided is very low. And the current polling shows, you know, El Sayed winning by 250,000 votes. There aren't enough votes left.”at 9:10