Telsey Advisory Group Founder Dana Telsey Talks GLP-1s

Dana Telsey · Telsey Advisory GroupBullish

Tiffany is growing faster post-merger than as a public company, with remodels lifting sales.

Tiffany's growth rates have been higher since the merger than when it was a public company. Its icon collections are being accepted by younger generations. At least 40% of stores have been remodeled and are getting a sales lift, and the Blue Box Cafe is hard to book after the South Coast Plaza remodel. Watches and jewelry are gaining share, with bridal improving as couples who did not date during COVID get engaged.

“I think it's going well so far. You think about the growth rates that it's had. It's growing faster than it did when it was its own public company.”at 3:29

Dana Telsey · Telsey Advisory Group

GLP-1 users are driving spending across food, apparel, beauty and fitness, making GLP-1s a consumer accelerant.

About 11% of US adults now use GLP-1s, more women than men, and use is still rising given the health benefits shown. Users are changing spending across the lifestyle spectrum: protein and food, new clothing and size changes, skin care and moisturizers, gym workouts, dinners out and beauty treatments. Shoppers also buy gifts for people on the drugs, so GLP-1s are, in her view, a consumer accelerant for spending.

“GLP ones are definitely a consumer accelerant in terms of spending.”at 2:08

Dana Telsey · Telsey Advisory Group

Oral GLP-1 dosing and falling prices should widen the user base beyond people who would inject.

The shift from injections to oral dosage should open the market to many people who did not want to inject. Costs are also falling while health benefits increase, which she sees as a further reason adoption will keep growing.

“I would think that would open up the market to a whole ton of people that maybe did not wanna inject. ... It's getting cheaper. The cost of GLP ones is coming down.”at 2:23

Dana Telsey · Telsey Advisory Group

Lab-grown diamonds are far cheaper, but natural stones keep demand for authenticity.

The cost gap between lab-grown and natural diamonds is very large, and lab-grown stones come in bigger sizes. Even so, buyers still want authenticity and natural stones. She points to bridal demand picking up as evidence of a return to natural, and to Japanese buyers favoring smaller, higher-quality pieces.

“The cost differential is definitely vast with lab grown, and you can get larger stone sizes for lab grown. However, there's still a demand for authenticity and natural stones.”at 5:09

Dana Telsey · Telsey Advisory Group

Activewear is slowing while fashion and occasion wear grows as people dress up again.

The COVID-era athleisure trend, when people worked on Zoom, has faded. Activewear has slowed while fashion and occasion wear has grown. She cites people dressing up for events, suits returning without ties, dresses, skirts and brown suede boots as examples of the shift.

“activewear has slowed, fashion and occasion wear has grown. People are dressing up.”at 6:32

Dana Telsey · Telsey Advisory Group

Telsey forecasts US holiday sales growth of 5% to 5.5%, a solid rise on last year.

Her firm's holiday sales forecast calls for 5% to 5.5% growth, a good number versus last year. Promotions are normalizing and inflation is present, which are headwinds, but GLP-1-driven gift buying and spending on new clothing, beauty and dining out is a tailwind she expects to lift the season.

“we came out with our holiday sales forecast of five to five and a half percent, which is a good forecast”at 1:29