Strategy Founder Michael Saylor Talks US Regulation Helping Bitcoin

Bitcoin

Across the shows: 16 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 9 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Michael Saylor · Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)Bullish

  Bitcoin is at the start of a bull market; headwinds are fading and tailwinds rising.

  Saylor says Bitcoin bounced slightly below its 200-week moving average and is now trading about 25% above it, which he reads as the start of a bull market. Earlier headwinds (restrictive trade, foreign and monetary policy) are rotating into tailwinds: a favorable US regulatory environment, accelerating banking adoption, growth in tokenized securities, and digital credit networks and bank credit coming online. He says the price bottomed slightly below $60,000, is now moving into the $80,000s, and should move back above $100,000 this cycle. Strategy, which he founded, holds a large Bitcoin position, so he has a stake.

  “Well, we think we're at the beginning of a bull market. ... And now we're rotating into some tailwinds. We've got a very favorable regulatory environment. We've got banking adoption accelerating.”at 1:21

• Michael Saylor · Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)Bullish

  Bitcoin will grow 20-30% a year over the next twenty years.

  Saylor points to Bitcoin's track record since Strategy's first purchase in August 2020: Bitcoin has risen about 38% a year, MSTR about 52-53% a year, and Bitcoin has outperformed gold and the S&P 500. He says only Nvidia has outperformed Bitcoin among the largest stocks, with the other Magnificent Seven and most S&P names underperforming. From that record he forecasts 20-30% annual Bitcoin growth over the next twenty years. He presents this as his firm's long-term forecast.

  “And our long term forecast is Bitcoin grows 20 to 30% a year over the next twenty years.”at 10:15

MSCI

• Michael Saylor · Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)Neutral

  MSCI's treatment of Bitcoin as non-capital is a value judgment and a bad precedent.

  Saylor says MSCI's proposed rules could exclude Strategy from its global equity indices, but he calls the capital at stake de minimis. He objects that MSCI treats oil, natural gas, land and machinery as capital while denying Bitcoin that status, which he calls a value judgment that acts like an unregistered financial adviser. He argues Strategy is an operating company, like JPMorgan, AIG, banks and insurers, because it actively manages its capital to create its digital credit product, consistent with accounting and SEC filings. He says excluding financial assets would remove every bank and insurer, and hopes MSCI reconsiders.

  “We think their position so far has been disappointing because they're imposing prejudicial values on digital assets and deciding that... oil or natural gas or land or machinery is capital, but Bitcoin is not capital is a value judgment, and they're acting like an unregistered financial adviser.”at 14:52

AI & jobs

• Michael Saylor · Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)

  AI will demonetize labor-based equities, pushing investors toward scarce assets like Bitcoin.

  Saylor argues AI will demonetize equities that rely on labor and talent, and that the AI trade carries risk both for firms trying to build the next product and may miss, and for firms built on tens of thousands of workers who are being degraded. He expects capital to rotate into scarce, desirable assets (real estate, gold or digital gold such as Bitcoin) that robots cannot make more of.

  “Well, you can see that AI is gonna demonetize a lot of equities that are based upon labor and talent.”at 2:29

Stablecoins & crypto policy

• Michael Saylor · Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)

  Clarity Act stalling is good for crypto; new SEC, CFTC and Treasury guidance is better.

  Saylor says US regulators are very pro digital assets. Within a week of the Clarity Act stalling, Treasury, the CFTC and the SEC issued positive guidance: the CFTC on crypto derivatives, the SEC on tokenizing securities, and Treasury on digital currencies. He argues the Clarity Act, which would legitimize the industry, carried 600 pages of restrictions, and that without it those restrictions disappeared while the administration's guidance became more favorable. He says this is why the industry and Bitcoin are rallying, and that the guidance will catalyze growth.

  “When clarity stalled, the restrictions went away, and the guidance that came out is actually much better for the industry.”at 19:09