Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 23rd, 2026

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 35 speakers in other episodes, 36 bullish and 16 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Liz Ann Sonders · Charles SchwabBearish

  Meta's share issuance and its drag on hyperscaler free cash flow are weighing on the stock.

  Meta sold off in response to issuing more shares, including non-voting ones, to fund its AI ambitions. Meta is one of the primary reasons aggregate hyperscaler free cash flow dropped so sharply. The equity market is sensitive to equity-financed AI spending, and that sensitivity also shows up in investment-grade credit.

  “And Meta is one of the primary reasons why in an aggregate sense, ... you saw the hyperscalers free cash flow numbers drop so precipitously.”at 7:34

• Dan IvesBullish

  Meta's post-earnings selloff despite strong numbers looks like a buying opportunity.

  Meta's numbers were unbelievable, yet the stock sold off at a time of market nervousness. Ives views the Meta and SpaceX reactions as a buying opportunity in the coming weeks and months. He expects Meta's stock to rise after its next report, so he sees the sell-off as sentiment-driven rather than a fundamental problem.

  “I think that this will be viewed, the Meta and SpaceX reactions, in the coming weeks and months as more of a buying opportunity relative to how the market reacted. I think if Meta reports earnings next week, stocks up.”at 20:22

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 43 speakers in other episodes, 10 bullish and 36 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan IvesBullish

  Neoclouds are needed for capacity and will likely consolidate rather than disappear.

  Ives argues the market is questioning the neocloud business model, but the sector needs more neocloud capacity than exists today. CoreWeave and Nebius are more likely to be consolidators. If weaker neoclouds fail, their capacity gets bought up rather than the build-out slowing.

  “I mean, we're talking about the neo clouds play. You almost need more neo cloud from a capacity perspective than we have today.”at 14:38

Oracle

Across the shows: 15 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 15 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan IvesBearish

  Oracle is in the toughest spot, trying to be a hyperscaler while funding it with debt.

  Customers are waiting in line for capacity. If Microsoft can't deliver, the demand goes to Amazon, then Google. Oracle is trying to be a hyperscaler while doing it on debt, which is why it is in the toughest spot among the big players.

  “That's why Oracle right now is maybe in the toughest spot because they're trying to be a hyperscaler, but they're doing it on debt,”at 18:11

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Liz Ann Sonders · Charles Schwab

  Hyperscaler capex financing matters more than capex size; falling cash flows mean more debt.

  An undershoot in hyperscaler capex would be a bigger negative than healthy capex numbers would be a reinforcing positive. The key is how the spending is financed. Hyperscaler cash flows have dropped sharply, and their aggregate year-over-year cash flow growth has turned negative, which is why they are relying more on debt. She expects the market to stay bifurcated, with trouble concentrated down the quality spectrum away from mega caps.

  “I think an undershooting of CapEx would be a bigger negative story than reinforcing what are pretty healthy CapEx numbers.”at 5:50

• Dan Ives

  AI capacity demand far exceeds supply; the data center build-out has years left to run.

  Demand is 13 times supply today, so the case that demand will not justify the capacity build-out is wrong. He says we are in year three of an eight to ten year build-out, likened to the Las Vegas Strip, and a credit scare does not dent that view. Even if about 5% of data centers don't get built, 800 to 1,000 will still be built. Each dollar of capex multiplies 5 to 6 times across the rest of tech. If some neoclouds fail, their capacity gets bought rather than slowing the build.

  “But today demand supply is 13 to one... my view that we're in year three of an eight to ten year build out”at 14:59

• Dan Ives

  A Democratic midterm sweep could hit data center buildout and tech stocks; China wins if US projects stall.

  The midterm risk is mainly political. A blue wave with Democrats negative on AI and data center build-out, with state moratoriums like the one in New York, would be a real threat and negative for tech. For every US data center that isn't built, China wins. Investors will separate political talk from reality and can shift projects to other states, but the concern going into the midterms is real.

  “if you have some sort of blue wave democrats negative on AI, negative on data center build out... That's a real threat because the reality is that for every data center that doesn't get built in The US, China wins.”at 18:57

Oil & fuels

• Rebecca Babin · CIBC Private Wealth

  Brent carries a large risk premium as Hormuz barrels cost far more to move.

  A barrel through Hormuz is now five times more expensive than at the start of the year, and it takes three times as many ships. Barrels moving under escort or through ship-to-ship transfers carry these costs, which are embedded in Brent's risk premium. Flows have increased but prices haven't pulled back, because the trade is riskier. Traders aren't willing to be short into a weekend with possible kinetic action, and rumours of an attack before the midterms add to the premium.

  “It's five times more expensive to get a barrel through Hormuz than it was kind of at the start of the year, and it takes three times as many ships to do that. ... So those costs are very much being embedded into the risk premium we're seeing in Brent prices right now.”at 24:33

• Rebecca Babin · CIBC Private Wealth

  Oil buffers are thin: Europe's SPR is well stocked, but most other inventories are exhausted.

  Europe still has a fairly well-stocked strategic reserve, which it is deploying cautiously because it imports every molecule of energy and sees no end to the conflict. It has also committed to releasing 20 million barrels of diesel over coming months. Outside that reserve, most inventories have been largely exhausted, and commercial inventories are running tight. The 27 strip is making year-to-date highs while the front month is not, showing where the remaining buffer sits.

  “we do still have a European SPR that's fairly well stocked... Outside of that, we've really exhausted a lot of the inventories.”at 27:10

• Rebecca Babin · CIBC Private Wealth

  Crude output should rise meaningfully within 12-18 months if long-dated prices hold; refining is harder.

  Investment decisions depend on the longer-dated strip rather than the front month, and confidence that this is a lasting cycle rather than a spike. If the '27 and '28 strip holds in the mid-80s to low-90s, marginal barrels come on in bigger projects, and crude production increases meaningfully within twelve to eighteen months. Refining is a much harder battle on the regulatory front, and she doesn't know what price would unlock it.

  “I think you would see crude production increase pretty meaningfully in twelve to eighteen months, but I think refining is not something that's gonna be solved.”at 29:08

Earnings & corporate profits

• Liz Ann Sonders · Charles Schwab

  Stocks can beat published consensus yet fall if they miss the wider buy-side whisper number.

  Stocks can outperform the published sell-side consensus and still underperform unpublished buy-side expectations, the old whisper number. The gap between sell-side and buy-side estimates is therefore the key. Samsung reported better than the sell-side consensus but arguably undershot buy-side expectations, and its stock was taken to the woodshed.

  “you can outperform the published sell side consensus and still underperform the unpublished buy side expectation.”at 4:49

US stock market outlook

• Liz Ann Sonders · Charles Schwab

  Profitability is splitting small caps; the quality trade is likely to persist.

  As of last week's close, profitable Russell 2000 stocks were up 18% year to date while unprofitable Russell 2000 stocks were slightly negative, an 18 to 19 point spread. She says the bigger underneath-the-surface story is interest coverage, debt to equity and the profit margin outlook. Since the October 2022 bear market low, only tech and communication services have outperformed the S&P 500, so positioning is concentrated. She expects the quality trade to persist.

  “This is very much a quality trade, and I think that probably has some persistence.”at 7:07

Credit markets

• Liz Ann Sonders · Charles Schwab

  AI exposure runs into corporate credit, so diversification must be judged by attribution.

  With crowded trades and concentration on the equity side, a diversified portfolio has to account for AI exposure in fixed income. If a big part of the fixed income sleeve is corporate credit, the AI exposure spreads into bonds too. She argues diversification should now be thought of by attribution rather than purely by asset class.

  “that you've got that AI exposure that spans into the fixed income side of the portfolio too.”at 8:19

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Liz Ann Sonders · Charles Schwab

  Election-driven emotion is lifting volatility before the midterms; things should calm after.

  Election-driven emotions are part of the anxiety. Volatility tends to pick up ahead of elections, and even more so ahead of midterms than presidential elections. It tends to calm down after the vote. She says this election-related skittishness is behind some of the nervousness under the surface of the major indexes.

  “Part of the reason why volatility tends to pick up in advance of elections... midterm elections relative to presidential elections. But things do tend to calm down, after.”at 9:04

AI chips & semiconductors

• Dan Ives

  AI chip demand has accelerated roughly 30% in the last month, based on his Asia visit.

  Ives was in Asia the week before and saw chip demand accelerate by about 30% over the last month, with enterprises going full throttle on the AI stack. He expects hyperscaler earnings next week to show it. He notes that roughly 20% of the spending will have to be financed with debt or capital raises, which is the tension in the market.

  “I was just in Asia last week, the demand has accelerated I think about 30% over the last month.”at 13:26

Frontier AI labs & model race

• Dan Ives

  Public listings of frontier AI labs will accelerate the AI infrastructure arms race.

  Ives expects Anthropic to go public in November and OpenAI to follow. As these companies become public, the arms race gets accelerated. He says tech companies see roughly twelve to eighteen months to build out before the window closes, and customers are waiting in line for capacity.

  “You talk about Anthropic that will go IPO in November. You know, as they become public, as OpenAI goes public, whether it's 1,200,000,000,000 or 1,400,000,000,000, the arms race just gets accelerated.”at 17:32

Shipping, trucking & logistics

• Rebecca Babin · CIBC Private Wealth

  Lifting tanker sanctions would ease freight rates only marginally; the aging fleet is no silver bullet.

  About 13 to 15% of the global VLCC fleet is sanctioned. Removing sanctions on some carriers could, on the margin, relieve strain in the tanker market and freight rates. However, the sanctioned vessels are around 20 years old, need repairs, and some are already used by shadow fleets. It won't hurt, but it won't solve the problem, which is a system held together by band-aids.

  “removing sanctions on some of those carriers could, on the margin, help relieve this strain, in the tanker market and get a little bit of relief on these freight rates. But I don't think it's necessarily this kind of silver bullet that's going to really solve this problem.”at 26:07