What investors are saying about Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Summary

In the past 30 days, 4 people on 2 investor and market shows discussed Deckers Outdoor (DECK) in 9 views. Going by each speaker's latest call, 2 are bullish and 2 are bearish. Chorus has followed Deckers Outdoor since October 22, 2026.

Who talks about it most

• Tobias Carlisle · 4
• Hari Ramachandra · 2
• Stig Brodersen · 2
• Karen Finerman · 1

The latest views

Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.

• Tobias Carlisle · Acquirers Funds / The Acquirers PodcastBullish

  Deckers is priced as if it has no growth at P/E 11 with $1.6B net cash; a takeover-style value buy.

  Tobias owns Deckers in the funds he manages and sees it as a potential takeout candidate that trades cheaply. At $77 the market value is about $10.6B with a P/E of about 11. Enterprise value is about $9.7B after $1.6B of net cash and no debt, or about 7x EV operating profit. Revenue to March 2026 was $5.5B, up 10%. HOKA grew 15.9% but slowed to 7.7% in the latest quarter. UGG grew 8.2% to $2.74B. The business is clean, with independent directors and an experienced CEO. Buybacks take about 80% of free cash flow and the share count fell 7% year over year. The $4.7B authorisation is over 40% of market value, and Tobias thinks buying back stock from cash flow is value-accretive. He values the business at about $72 with no growth, but he says that assumption is unreasonable because the business is still growing faster than inflation. The stock was over $200 before the April tariffs hit and fell sharply.

  “At $77 this is being priced as if it has no growth.”at 1:03:11

  We Study Billionaires: TIP857: S&P Global, Novo, Deckers Brands w/ Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, & Hari Ramachandra · November 1, 2026

• Hari Ramachandra · SalesforceBullish

  Deckers is an asset-light, high-ROIC business; slowing HOKA growth is the main concern.

  Ramachandra says Deckers does not own its production facilities. It outsources to partners or vendors in Vietnam and elsewhere, so manufacturing is cost-effective and no capex sits on the balance sheet, which shows in its ROIC. He calls it an amazing business and finds it hard to find excuses not to buy. His concern is growth: HOKA has slowed from about 24% to 16%, and UGG is a maturing brand growing in the low-to-mid single digits. He asks whether the base case is already in the fair value range and whether the stock would still be a good investment if growth keeps slowing and matures.

  “It's a very asset light business. They don't own their production facilities.”at 1:12:43

  We Study Billionaires: TIP857: S&P Global, Novo, Deckers Brands w/ Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, & Hari Ramachandra · November 1, 2026

• Hari Ramachandra · SalesforceBullish

  Deckers' management is buying back more stock and its long-tenured CEO has grown the brands well.

  Ramachandra notes that management is buying back more stock now than before, which he reads as a good sign. He praises the long-tenured CEO, who grew HOKA from the beginning and has shepherded the company. He contrasts this with Nike, which made brand-positioning missteps, including pulling back from suppliers and retailers to push direct sales. He sees none of those missteps under the current CEO.

  “So that's a good sign as well. And the CEO is also pretty good.”at 1:13:27

  We Study Billionaires: TIP857: S&P Global, Novo, Deckers Brands w/ Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, & Hari Ramachandra · November 1, 2026

• Tobias Carlisle · Acquirers Funds / The Acquirers PodcastBullish

  Deckers is undervalued; scenario analysis gives roughly $113 base-case fair value versus a $72 downside.

  Carlisle values Deckers through three scenarios. Bear case: HOKA stalls and UGG becomes a fashion downturn, with 2% growth and an 8x terminal multiple, giving $72 against a $77 share price. Base case: management's numbers trimmed, with 3% growth and an 11x multiple, giving about $113 fair value. Bull case: consumer squeeze eases and growth returns to about 4% with a 14x multiple, giving about $160. He assigns 20% to bear, 20% to bull and 60% to base, for a midpoint of roughly $110-115 against $72 downside and $161 upside. He calls it a clean balance sheet and says purely on its financials it is too cheap. He notes it is a one- or two-brand business, not a multi-business like SPGI or Novo, so the deeper discount is compensation for fragility and some discount is not strictly needed.

  “My base case, this is just taking management's numbers and just trimming them a little bit. In that instance, I say 3% growth and an 11 times multiple and that gets me to about $113 as fair value.”at 1:15:57

  We Study Billionaires: TIP857: S&P Global, Novo, Deckers Brands w/ Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, & Hari Ramachandra · November 1, 2026

• Tobias Carlisle · Acquirers Funds / The Acquirers PodcastBullish

  Deckers' buybacks at depressed prices limit downside and concentrate value for remaining shareholders.

  Management is buying back large amounts of stock while the shares are undervalued and has the free cash flow to do so. Carlisle argues this limits downside because each buyback concentrates value in the shares that remain, as with AutoNation and O'Reilly, which have effectively bought themselves out over time. He says that even without a private equity takeover this creates a bid under the stock, and that if growth resumes the shares should run.

  “With management buying back stock, one of the things I really like is when management does take advantage of these undervaluation and they have the cash flow there to do that, that really limits your downside”at 1:17:34

  We Study Billionaires: TIP857: S&P Global, Novo, Deckers Brands w/ Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, & Hari Ramachandra · November 1, 2026

• Stig Brodersen · The Investor's Podcast NetworkUncertain

  Reaccelerating growth after a decline is very hard for footwear brands, so skepticism is warranted.

  Brodersen is puzzled that the stock trades at a 52-week low when its fundamentals look healthy. He thinks part of the reason is base-rate skepticism: he cites Crocs, Under Armour, Skechers, Vans and Lululemon, and says reaccelerating growth after a first decline is very tricky and is simply the nature of the business. He says some of this may already be priced in, and he notes the risk of fashion shifts. He still says the valuation looks hard to see going wrong, so the view is cautious rather than negative.

  “it's very tricky to reaccelerate growth whenever you first see a decline. That's just the nature of the business.”at 1:19:24

  We Study Billionaires: TIP857: S&P Global, Novo, Deckers Brands w/ Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, & Hari Ramachandra · November 1, 2026

• Stig Brodersen · The Investor's Podcast NetworkBullish

  Deckers' capital allocation is excellent; the HOKA acquisition was nearly free and is now a $2.6B brand.

  Brodersen says he absolutely loves Deckers' capital allocation. He points to the HOKA acquisition in 2013, which was almost free and is now generating about $2.6 billion in sales. He admits some of the success needed heavy marketing spend. He asks whether the company should keep this strategy, since its third brand, Teva, is only about 4% of sales. He also says he would like to see management buy shares in the open market.

  “I absolutely love their capital allocation. ... whenever they acquired HOKA, for example, in 2013, it was almost free and now it's doing 2,600,000,000 in sales.”at 1:22:37

  We Study Billionaires: TIP857: S&P Global, Novo, Deckers Brands w/ Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, & Hari Ramachandra · November 1, 2026

• Tobias Carlisle · Acquirers Funds / The Acquirers PodcastBearish

  Real rivals like On and Nike will cap how much Deckers can charge for its running shoes.

  Carlisle says that On is a real competitor and that this will cap how much Deckers can charge for its shoes. He describes the running shoe market as niche and enthusiast-driven, with Deckers effectively a one- or two-brand business facing big competitors such as Nike. He thinks Nike, hurt by its large share price fall, will retool and come back as a stronger competitor. This is a pricing-power risk that he weighs against the buyback support and the valuation discount.

  “Having said that, there are real competitors out there. ON is a real competitor. And so that's gonna cap how much they can charge for these shoes.”at 1:25:48

  We Study Billionaires: TIP857: S&P Global, Novo, Deckers Brands w/ Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, & Hari Ramachandra · November 1, 2026

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBearish

  Deckers' results were not good; HOKA was part of the problem and tough sledding remains.

  Finerman says Deckers' results after hours were really not good. HOKA was part of the problem they had discussed earlier, and even Nike had been up before this. She thinks the company still has some tough sledding ahead.

  “Really not so good... HOKA was part of the problem we talked about on stock... We still got some tough sledding.”at 28:19

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