Speaker · Updated
Matt Belloni: latest market views
Puck
Summary
Matthew Belloni is a founding partner of the digital media company Puck, where he writes the 'What I'm Hearing' entertainment newsletter, hosts the podcast 'The Town', and is a former editorial director of The Hollywood Reporter.
Chorus has 7 views from Matt Belloni across 2 episodes on CNBC Closing Bell and Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) since October 7, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Amazon.com and Netflix; bearish on Paramount Skydance.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- Amazon.comBullish ·
- NetflixBullish ·
- Paramount SkydanceBearish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
NetflixBearish
Netflix's content approach isn't working; it must take more risk on content, formats and sports.
Belloni says Netflix is down more than 40%, possibly because of the failed Warner Bros. bid, which made investors question why it would pay tens of billions for a studio if its own business were great. He sees the Bajaria shakeup as a partial scapegoat. Netflix lacks buzzy hits since last summer's K-pop Demon Hunters, and YouTube pays nothing for its content while Netflix pays about $20 billion a year upfront. He expects Netflix to try podcasts, audiobooks, linear channels, sports, theatrical deals and other services, and says the company has to take more risk because what it's doing isn't working.
“They gotta take more risk on this because what they're doing isn't really working.”at 35:28
NetflixBullish
Netflix's ad business is growing but early; it needs buzzy shows and engagement to sell ads well.
Netflix's ad business is growing, though still early. Ad buyers see Netflix as behind Amazon Prime Video, which has transitioned more successfully to its ad tier partly because it opted all Prime Video subscribers in, while Netflix did not. Most of Netflix's subscriber growth is coming from the cheaper ad tier, so Belloni expects ad-business improvement, but says Netflix must keep producing buzzy shows and engagement that draws people in to sell ads. Sports or more live events and podcasts could help, but this is not yet proven.
“It is growing, and it's still early days for Netflix and ads. But when you talk to ad buyers ... So I think you're going to see improvement there, but they gotta have the buzzy shows.”at 35:56
Amazon.comBullish
Amazon Prime Video has transitioned to its ad tier more successfully than Netflix, helped by opting in all subscribers.
Belloni compares Amazon Prime Video with Netflix. Amazon is very good at selling ads and has been much more successful moving its video service to an ad tier. A key reason is that Amazon opted every Prime Video subscriber into the ad tier, which Netflix did not do. Amazon's advertising strength and its ad-tier execution are the advantage he draws out.
“which is very good at selling ads, they've been much more successful in transitioning over to their ad tier for video, in part because they opted everybody in that was a subscriber to Prime Video”at 36:02
Paramount SkydanceBearish
Paramount's ~$79B post-merger debt may force asset sales and squeeze the promised content budget.
Belloni says the combined company carries about $79 billion in net debt. Interest-rate increases will make those obligations harder to service, which he expects will force the company to sell assets and squeeze the content budget that management says is needed to drive growth. He is sceptical of management's plan: the previous Warner Bros. Discovery leadership also had everything mapped out, and its forecasts fell apart when the television business declined faster than expected. The sceptical case is that the linear TV decline still threatens the plan, and the debt load limits the room for error.
“Many people believe that the debt burden, currently is about $79,000,000,000 in net debt, that those obligations, including the interest rate rise... will cause them to eventually have to sell things and will put a squeeze on the content budget”at 35:52
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): DOGE ‘Blockers,’ Media’s Mega Merger, & Bigger Billionaires 10/7/26 ·
Paramount SkydanceUncertain
Paramount's bet that streaming can outgrow linear TV declines is uncertain, given its non-growing cable networks.
The core question for media is whether streaming can grow fast enough to offset linear TV declines. Skydance is betting it can. HBO Max is growing as both a profit center and a product, but Paramount still has dozens of cable networks that are not growing. Paramount chose to keep the cash those networks generate to fund the combined business rather than spin them off, as Comcast did with Versant. That makes the streaming bet the central swing factor, and Belloni frames it as an open question rather than a settled one.
“the whole question in media right now is can the streaming business grow fast enough to offset the declines in linear television? And the Skydance people are betting that they can.”at 36:33
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): DOGE ‘Blockers,’ Media’s Mega Merger, & Bigger Billionaires 10/7/26 ·
Paramount SkydanceUncertain
Observers expect Paramount to need an outside capital injection or equity investor, based on its projections.
Paramount says it does not plan a separate capital injection beyond potential asset sales. Belloni disagrees: most observers look at the company's projections and expect something to happen, such as a capital injection or an equity investor. He ties that expectation to the financial pressure on the combined business, which is carrying heavy debt and relying on cash from declining cable networks. He does not name who would invest, and he says he doesn't know whether Elon Musk would be involved.
“most observers of this company look at the projections and expect something to happen, whether it's an injection of capital, whether it's some kind of equity investor or something that comes into this company.”at 38:08
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): DOGE ‘Blockers,’ Media’s Mega Merger, & Bigger Billionaires 10/7/26 ·
Amazon.comNeutral
Amazon's Emmys stream is an ad-sales tentpole and prestige play, not a major audience driver.
Belloni sees Amazon's move to stream the Emmys as part of a broader trend in which YouTube has the Oscars and Netflix has the Actor Awards. He calls it a prestige play. Amazon is a giant ads business and needs tentpole live events it can sell to advertisers. He expects the audience impact to be modest: the Emmys draw about six to seven million viewers a year, roughly a third of a big football game. He also says Prime Video members are not clamoring for the show.
“YouTube is gonna have the Oscars. So it's sort of a prestige play, and Amazon's a giant ads business. They have to have these tentpole events that they can sell to advertisers.”at 43:13
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): DOGE ‘Blockers,’ Media’s Mega Merger, & Bigger Billionaires 10/7/26 ·
Shows
- CNBC Closing Bell · 1 episode
- Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) · 1 episode
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