Speaker · Updated
Kyle Grieve: latest market views
The Investor's Podcast Network
Summary
Kyle Grieve is a host of The Investor's Podcast (formerly We Study Billionaires) at The Investor's Podcast Network, where he co-hosts company case-study episodes with Shawn O'Malley and covers value investing, microcaps and long-term compounders.
Chorus has 37 views from Kyle Grieve across 2 episodes on We Study Billionaires since October 15, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Airbnb and Aritzia; bearish on Lululemon Athletica.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
What they talk about most
- Airbnb · 19
- Aritzia · 17
- Lululemon Athletica · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
AirbnbBullish
Airbnb's growth slowdown was a temporary spending blip; growth is reaccelerating and can last for years.
Kyle says revenue compounded about 90% and operating cash flow about 39% since the IPO, then growth slowed. After looking under the hood, he judged the slowdown a temporary blip in spending to support future growth. He says growth rates are now speeding back up, above historical averages, and that new services and geographies are adding market share, so Airbnb may keep growing well for many years.
“the slowdown looks more like a temporary blip in spending just to support that future growth. And even now, we're seeing growth rates speeding back up and even past their historical averages.”at 0:37
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBullish
Airbnb's brand and app need far less marketing spend than Booking and Expedia, a true competitive edge.
Kyle says Airbnb spent about one fifth of revenue on marketing in 2025, versus about a third at Booking.com and about half at Expedia. He argues the brand and a superior app let Airbnb acquire customers more cheaply and redirect money into product improvements. He calls the ads and product a real competitive advantage, saying Airbnb's app looks far better than competitors'.
“So in 2025, they just spend about one fifth of their revenue on marketing expenses, which is obviously very, very low compared to... a third for booking.com and about half for Expedia.”at 12:33
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBullish
Gross booking value is a clear win: it compounded 34% since Q4 2024, nailing the growth assumption.
Kyle cites gross booking volume compounding at 34% since the last quarter of 2024, which validates Shawn's original assumption of low double-digit growth. He notes that gross booking volume grew 16% in the first half of 2026, somewhat closer to Airbnb's historical growth rate in that metric.
“Airbnb has done very very well on your first assumption, know, gross booking volume since the last quarter of twenty twenty four has compounded 34%. So you just nailed that assumption.”at 18:22
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbNeutral
Take rate has slipped from 13.6%; without sponsored listings it may stagnate, though the thesis is not broken.
Kyle notes the take rate has dropped a little from about 13.6% in 2024 and is around 13.2% in the latest quarter. He says the original thesis expected the take rate to rise via sponsored listings, which have not arrived. Without that ad revenue, he expects more stagnation in the take rate, which changes the risk profile somewhat. He stresses that other growing parts of the business mean the thesis is not broken.
“if they can't rely on getting some of that extra revenue from these sponsor listings to help increase their take rate, you know, we're just maybe going to see a little more stagnation”at 27:27
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBearish
AI booking agents ignore sponsored placements, which weakens Airbnb's future ad-driven take-rate lever.
Kyle cites a VRBO article about sponsored listings and argues that AI agents undermine their value. An AI agent choosing a Manhattan stay would assess ratings, reviews, price and amenities and would not care whether a listing is sponsored. As AI agents spread, the sponsored listings lever that could lift Airbnb's take rate would be weaker.
“part of the weakness of the sponsor listings kind of stems from the role that AI agents will play in finding places to book. For instance, if I were to use an AI agent”at 28:39
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbUncertain
Margin expansion is hard to see: gross profit margin flat since 2022 and the cash share of revenue is slipping.
Kyle says the margin profile has clearly improved over a long look-back, but since 2022 gross profit margin has not really moved. The share of revenue Airbnb keeps as cash has also slipped somewhat. He finds it hard to judge margin progress, so he is uncertain whether the expected margin expansion is happening.
“it's kind of hard to tell, you know, the margin profile has clearly improved if you look back far enough, but since 2022 gross profit margin hasn't really moved while the share of revenue they keep as cash has kind of slipped a little bit.”at 30:08
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBullish
Record bedroom nights show rising demand for larger houses; group travel is a defensible edge over hotels.
Kyle highlights record bedroom nights, which multiply nights booked by bedroom count and are growing faster than nights and seats booked. He reads this as customers using larger and larger houses more often. Drawing on his Oregon trip with extended family, he argues a whole house with one kitchen beats multiple hotel rooms for group travel. He says this part of the original thesis is still very defensible, and that Booking and Expedia excel mainly at hotels.
“the record number of bedroom nights that have been booked over the last year. So bedroom nights multiply nights booked by bedroom count, and this is growing faster than just the nights and seats booked.”at 31:56
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBullish
Human connection and accumulated reviews make Airbnb hard for AI chatbots or rivals to disintermediate.
Kyle recounts a conference attendee whose Booking.com hotel change failed because the AI chatbot could not reach a human. He argues person-to-person connection matters a lot for trip quality, making Airbnb's human connection an underrated part of its model. He describes Airbnb's reviews and verified identities as an accumulated asset that grows with every booked night, so no competitor could buy its roughly 500 million reviews with billions of dollars.
“So I think that whole part about the AI chatbot is really, really interesting, and it matters a lot. Having that kind of person to person connection is really, really important.”at 33:57
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbUncertain
Airbnb's pro-host moat is a soft spot: price-sensitive operators could switch platforms cheaply if fees rise.
Kyle plays devil's advocate on the competitive moat. Multi-platform hosts running property management software are the most price-sensitive and have the nicest, most consistent listings. Airbnb's move to a 15.5% fixed fee may partly reflect a wish to keep these operators happy. If Airbnb got greedy, these operators could shift to Vrbo or Booking.com with almost no switching cost beyond losing one listing. He presents this as a real weakness that got him thinking, not a settled conclusion. He later accepts Shawn's counterpoint that guest demand is what keeps pros on the platform.
“So if Airbnb were ever to get greedy, those operators could easily shift their businesses to something like Vrbo or [Booking] without really incurring any real switching cost penalty”at 36:11
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBullish
Airbnb's margin squeeze from higher spending is acceptable, with attractive returns on the investment.
Kyle notes revenue has grown more than twice as fast as cash from operations since 2024. Spending on sales and marketing and product development, including new hires, has grown faster than revenue, which compresses margins. Management warned in early 2025 that adjusted EBITDA margins would be lower to fund the next leg of growth. He also points out that the float balance rose from about $7 billion at the end of 2025 to over $12 billion by Q2, which he credits as good management. He sees the reinvestment as a deliberate choice with attractive returns, so he has no concern about the spending and expects continued growth from it.
“Well as for the increased spending, I'm really glad to see them investing back into the product and customer acquisitions. So really no concerns for me on that front.”at 39:39
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbUncertain
Airbnb's pay-later feature trades cash timing and cancellation certainty for more bookings; a reasonable trade if cancellations stay manageable.
Kyle sees the pay-later feature as a trade-off. Airbnb recognizes revenue at check-in regardless of payment timing, and management says the feature encourages earlier booking and lifts average nightly rates. The catch is that guests who have not paid are more likely to cancel, which makes bookings a less reliable preview of future revenue. Airbnb gives up some cash timing and certainty in exchange for more bookings. Kyle thinks the trade is reasonable as long as cancellations stay manageable. He says he will watch this metric closely over the next few quarters and years.
“So as long as the cancellations stay manageable, I still think it's a reasonable trade, but it's definitely a number that I'll be watching more closely over the next few quarters and years.”at 44:23
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBearish
Stock-based compensation will keep rising as Airbnb competes for talent against hyperscalers.
Kyle sees stock-based compensation as a lasting cost, which he calls the 'tech tax.' Airbnb competes for scarce software engineers with hyperscalers such as Alphabet and Microsoft, which are always hunting for top talent and willing to pay for it. Economies of scale don't remove the cost. As Airbnb keeps growing, he expects it to keep adding talent, so SBC is more likely to rise over the next few years than fall. He acknowledges SBC growth has leveled off, rising about 13% from 2024 to 2025, but still expects it to remain a drag.
“So with Airbnb, you know, I guess you could call it the tech tax. That's something that I just don't really see going away anytime soon.”at 48:44
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBullish
Airbnb's debt risk is very low, with interest covered more than 90 times by profits.
Kyle notes long-term debt was zero at the end of 2025 and is about $2.5 billion now, with no short-term debt. Maturities run out to 2036. Airbnb has a large cash balance. Shawn explains that the debt funds buybacks and extends maturities, and that profits cover interest more than 90 times over. Kyle concludes the risk of Airbnb getting into debt trouble is incredibly low. He also doesn't think the business is at risk of going out of business.
“So the risk of them getting into trouble with their debt is incredibly low at this point.”at 56:04
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbUncertain
AI assistants could become travelers' starting point, threatening Airbnb's direct-traffic advantage over time.
Kyle does not think an AI agent will replace Airbnb, since it sells an experience AI cannot replace. The real exposure is customer flow. Booking.com pays Google for traffic because Google owns the trip's starting point. Airbnb has avoided that tax because people type a location plus 'Airbnb' into search. Kyle argues the next generation of travelers, such as a son at 20, may ask an AI assistant where to stay, and an agent could own the starting point instead of Google or Airbnb. He says this is uncertain and not known, though Airbnb owns the starting point better than most competitors.
“I don't think it's inconceivable to think maybe my son, for instance, when he's 20 years old and wants to go traveling with some friends, maybe he'll just ask [ChatGPT] or Claude where to stay and then have an AI agent that looks at the starting point, not Google and not Airbnb.”at 1:07:22
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBullish
Airbnb's large cash generation and balance sheet let it weather a downturn better than rivals.
Kyle agrees the operating leverage risk exists, but argues it hits all competitors, not just Airbnb. Airbnb has a strong balance sheet and generates billions of dollars in cash per year, so it is well set up to get through a downturn. He adds that Airbnb spends much less on advertising than some competitors, which makes it more resilient.
“I think luckily for Airbnb, it's a risk that's not just focused just on Airbnb... since they have this really nice balance sheet and since they're generating, you know, billions of dollars in cash per year, I think they're pretty well set up to at least weather those kinds of storms if they eventually hit.”at 1:13:50
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBullish
India's rising incomes could make it a multi-decade travel tailwind for Airbnb.
Kyle points to India's population of nearly 1.5 billion and to demographic change. GDP per capita growth has been explosive since the early 2000s, so more Indians have disposable income to travel. Even a small share of them starting to use Airbnb would be a large tailwind for multiple decades. He notes Airbnb needs no new product for this: it is the same app and model, with only marketing nuances changed.
“And if even a small number of them begin using Airbnb in India, well, that's a market that could provide a massive tailwind for honestly multiple decades.”at 1:16:10
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBullish
Airbnb's new-customer push is working, with first-time bookers growing at a four-year high.
Kyle says hotels give Airbnb a clever way to use empty hotel inventory while pulling in new customers who then build brand awareness for the core home product. First-time bookers grew 11%, the fastest rate in four years, which he takes as a strong sign the acquisition strategy works. He argues the product is good enough that once a customer is in the Airbnb ecosystem it is hard to leave for competitors or even a Google search.
“So because first time bookers grew by 11%, the fastest growth rate that Airbnb has had in the last four years, I think it's a really strong signal that what Airbnb is doing around just finding these new customers is working really really well.”at 1:19:51
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBullish
Airbnb's shrinking share count and buybacks below intrinsic value should lift long-term per-share value.
Kyle pushes back on Shawn's model, which assumed the share count stays flat with stock-based compensation offset by repurchases. The diluted share count has shrunk by nearly 3% a year since 2022. If Airbnb keeps buying back shares below intrinsic value, long-term value per share should be somewhat higher than Shawn's model assumes. He says the original model has aged well and that its conservatism shows in this assumption.
“it's actually shrunk by nearly 3% a year, and if they can continue buying back shares at prices that are below intrinsic value, then chances are the long term value per share is actually going to be maybe a little bit higher.”at 1:26:50
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AirbnbBullish
AI agents will not dent Airbnb, since he loves the product as a consumer and won't switch.
Kyle is a satisfied shareholder who keeps faith in Chesky and loves the product as a consumer. He does not see AI agents changing that, so he sees no reason to sell long term. The argument rests on his own experience as a user rather than on evidence about how agents would route bookings.
“I continue to absolutely love the product as a consumer and I don't see that changing because of AI agents or anything like that.”at 1:27:33
We Study Billionaires: TIP856: Airbnb (ABNB): The Business Outgrew Its Peak, The Stock Hasn't w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AritziaBullish
Aritzia's 33x earnings multiple deserves a premium given roughly 20-25% compounding growth since 2020.
Since Kyle began buying Aritzia in 2020, revenue has grown about 22% a year, EPS about 25% and cash from operations about 20%. He concedes the stock is expensive at 33 times earnings, but argues a business compounding at those rates deserves a premium multiple. He still holds it as his largest personal position.
“since I started buying it in 2020, they've had revenue growth of 22%. They've had an EPS growth of 25% and cash from operations has grown at about 20%. So yes, while the multiple is expensive at 33 times earnings, it's a business that I think really deserves somewhat of a premium valuation.”at 5:34
We Study Billionaires: TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AritziaBullish
Aritzia has handled tariffs very well by shifting shipping and sourcing away from China and high-tariff countries.
Kyle says Aritzia responded to the de minimis closure by shipping US orders from its existing Ohio distribution centre instead of Canada. During the 2025 US-China escalation, when China faced tariffs as high as 145%, it moved production to lower-tariff countries such as Vietnam. Per Kyle, the CFO said China's share of sourcing fell from about 30 to 35% to the mid single digits. He sees this as strong execution that protected margins.
“I think Aritzia has done a really, really good job quickly changing some of its strategies to minimize the impact of this onto their business.”at 17:48
We Study Billionaires: TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AritziaBullish
Aritzia's brand is its core competitive advantage, supported by strong store economics that let it keep winning customers.
Kyle says Aritzia has no structural cost advantage like Costco or Walmart, so brand is the main moat. He cites his own observations of women wearing its clothes, and says the brand is strong enough that people recognise the items without entering a store. He also points to store sales of about $1,000 per square foot, well above a 400 to 700 dollar range he attributes to Shopify research on Tanger and Simon Property Group tenants. Keeping the brand intact and avoiding third-party distribution is how he thinks the company keeps its advantage.
“the simplest answer that I can come up with is just brand. So the Aritzia brand is a very very strong and I've seen it with my own two eyes.”at 21:11
We Study Billionaires: TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AritziaBullish
Aritzia has a large US growth runway, with only 76 US stores against a market about nine times Canada's population.
Canada has about 67 Aritzia locations, while the US, with roughly nine times Canada's population, has only 76. Kyle argues this gap means the brand can keep spreading into new US markets. Shawn adds that the US is Aritzia's next growth lever. Kyle also notes that larger repositioned boutiques lift square footage per store, which supports the expansion case.
“The U. S. Has about nine times our population and currently only has 76 locations in The U. S. So the opportunity is very large to help spread the brand more and more into The U. S.”at 30:57
We Study Billionaires: TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
Lululemon AthleticaBearish
Lululemon's growth is getting harder because its North American market is saturated and the brand is already well known there.
Kyle says he has worried for several years that Lululemon's brand is already widely known in North America, its main market. The US was an enormous growth story for the company for a long time, and Kyle thinks that market is now largely saturated, so growth is increasingly hard to find. He still sees people wearing the brand and does not think it has faltered, so his concern is about growth runway rather than brand damage.
“my primary worry with Lululemon, which I've had for the past few years is just that the brand is incredibly well known in its primary market of North America. And because The US was such an incredible growth story for so long for Lululemon, it's been largely saturated”at 33:12
We Study Billionaires: TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AritziaBullish
Aritzia's rising return on invested capital shows a durable competitive advantage.
Kyle calculates Aritzia's latest-quarter ROIC at a touch below 28%. He says ROIC is rising over time, which he treats as a decent proxy for a competitive advantage. He expects it to hold roughly flat as the company keeps earning high returns on larger investment, which he still reads as a sign of advantage. Averages are hard to hold, so he expects some volatility year to year.
“But most importantly, the return on invested capital number seems to be rising over time, And this is a pretty decent proxy, which tells us that the business does have some sort of competitive advantage.”at 37:34
We Study Billionaires: TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AritziaBullish
Aritzia's rising capex per boutique is fine, since stores earn strong returns and capex should fall.
Aritzia spent about $237M of capex in the latest year across about 143 boutiques, roughly $1.5M per location. Capex per location has risen since the IPO, but Kyle links that to repositioning existing stores and building large US flagships. Capex as a share of revenue has ranged from about 3% to 10%. Kyle expects total capex to fall as the company moves to smaller boutiques and finishes its distribution-centre build-out. He also values the slow cadence of one to three new stores a year, which he sees as disciplined and consistent with stable revenue per square foot.
“So the increase in CapEx per location doesn't really concern me at all.”at 39:16
We Study Billionaires: TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AritziaBullish
Aritzia's skipping dividends and limited buybacks is the optimal capital allocation.
Aritzia pays no dividend and runs a small buyback that mainly offsets share-based compensation dilution. Diluted shares still grow about 1% a year. The company has about $500M of cash and funds buybacks from operating cash flow rather than debt. Kyle thinks reinvesting most profit into new stores, which have high returns, is the best use of capital. He also notes the shares have not traded cheaply, which supports reinvesting over buying back stock.
“So I really like the capital allocation strategy that management is executing here when it comes to shareholder distributions.”at 41:14
We Study Billionaires: TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AritziaBullish
Reigning Champ acquisition was a cheap option on menswear that fits the brand.
Aritzia bought Reigning Champ for only $63M, which gives it exposure to menswear for a small price. Kyle sees it as an option, not a large bet. The brand fits Aritzia's offer, and men's apparel could keep husbands and boyfriends shopping in stores while they wait. Reigning Champ has only four stores and does not disclose financials, so Kyle judges its health from its Vancouver location and its expanding product range.
“the way I see the [Reigning Champ] acquisition was purely kind of an option play. You know, it was super cheap at only $63,000,000 and basically gives them some sort of exposure to menswear.”at 43:17
We Study Billionaires: TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AritziaBullish
Aritzia is conservatively financed, with zero long-term debt and about $800M operating cash flow.
Aritzia has no long-term debt and about $400M of available liquidity, which it does not need now. It generated about $800M of operating cash flow over the last year and has already spent heavily on its distribution centres in Toronto, Vancouver and Columbus, Ohio. Kyle notes it repaid the COVID revolver and a 2021 term loan in cash, and has carried no debt since. He thinks a future US distribution centre could need funding, but that is covered by cash flow.
“[Aritzia is] even more so compared to Lululemon. So long term debt is currently at zero.”at 48:22
We Study Billionaires: TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
AritziaBullish
CEO Jennifer Wong is an excellent leader who created about $10B of market value.
Jennifer Wong has been at Aritzia since 1987 and became CEO in 2022. Under her, the company retained about $500M of earnings while market cap rose over $10B, which passes Buffett's $1-for-$1 test. Kyle credits her with supply-chain and tariff management, and with rising margins. He is more critical of her capital allocation, which he does not see as her main strength, and of low insider ownership: the founder holds over 15% with voting control, Wong owns a fraction of 1%, and much of the board holds only options. Shawn pushes back that capital efficiency has improved, which Kyle partly accepts.
“I think Jennifer was the right choice and I think she's done a ridiculously good job so far as a CEO.”at 57:46
We Study Billionaires: TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley ·
7 older views from Kyle Grieve are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
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- We Study Billionaires · 2 episodes
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