Speaker · Updated

Brent Thill: latest market views

Jefferies

Summary

Brent Thill is a senior software research analyst at Jefferies covering the software and internet sectors, who hosts the firm's AI and Capital Market Summit and is a frequent CNBC guest on tech earnings.

Chorus has 8 views from Brent Thill across 2 episodes on CNBC Closing Bell since October 21, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Microsoft, Oracle and Meta Platforms; bearish on International Business Machines.

Where they stand

Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.

What they talk about most

The latest views

Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.

  • AI infrastructure & data centers

    Hyperscaler capex may moderate from full throttle, which would help AI investments reach companies that monetize them.

    Thill says the market is bracing for a capex moderation after companies like Oracle and Microsoft signalled they may not need to spend as much. He describes capex as having been run at full throttle and says it could be pulled back to seven or eight, from eleven. He argues that this would redirect AI investment toward hyperscalers that will actually monetize it, and that the big spenders can build what they need with less money than the street assumed.

    “You know, we've had the throttle at 11 on on CapEx, and maybe we pull it back to seven or eight. And I think that would bring many of these AI investments back into some of these hyperscalers that are actually gonna monetize these investments.”at 40:41

    CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test; Warsh’s Latest Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·

  • MicrosoftBullish

    Microsoft is bullish: Azure and M365 accelerated and enterprise AI deployment is early, so the stock should rise.

    Microsoft beat on both lines, with Azure growth accelerating and M365 also accelerating, and capex a little lower while remaining-performance obligations (RPO) rose massively. Thill says the quarter's operating margin is one of the highest the company has posted, even while it spends heavily on AI, and that the company keeps improving margins. He argues the key question is the sustainability of AI demand, but says 'we're really, really early in enterprise AI deployments,' which he thinks bodes well for Microsoft over the next year. He says the stock is still going higher.

    “But I think, again, we're really, really early in enterprise AI deployments, and that is... Bodes really well for Microsoft, over the next year.”at 41:25

    CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test; Warsh’s Latest Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·

  • OracleBullish

    Oracle has upside: its capex is lighter, funding needs are lower, and earnings power could justify a much higher stock.

    Thill says Oracle's analyst-day forecast matched its historical guidance, and that nobody believed the $20 earnings-power target. He argues that even $10 of earnings power, or half of what is guided, at a 20x multiple implies a $200 stock. He says Oracle's capex is much lighter than peers' because it plugs into other companies' data centers rather than building its own. The only thing that changed was cash flow and funding needs: he expects free cash flow to start building in the back half of 2028 and reach about $30 billion in 2029. He concludes the market has misread Oracle by lumping it in with the risky data-center builders, and that the AI giants can build infrastructure with less money than expected at high margins.

    “At the analyst day, they basically just gave a forecast that matched what they've been giving historically. No one believed the forecast, and that was to get the $20 earnings power. We said if... Even if they got $10 of earnings power or half of what they're guiding, and you put a 20 multiple, this is a $200 stock.”at 42:05

    CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test; Warsh’s Latest Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·

  • AlphabetUncertain

    Alphabet missed on nearly every metric except cloud; search slowdown is the problem, though the stock looks cheap.

    Thill says everything went wrong for Alphabet this quarter: search growth slowed to 12% from the 19% and 17% of prior quarters, when investors had wanted something in the mid-teens. Cloud was the only business that beat, at 103% growth, though only by a little, and it missed some high-end targets. YouTube and operating margin also missed. He says Google doesn't guide, so its prints tend to produce bigger moves. He still calls it a great company and cheap, so the view is mixed: weak results on the numbers, but valuation support.

    “Search, you know, was 12%. It went nineteen seventeen twelve. That... is a slide that no one wanted to see.”at 45:31

    CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test; Warsh’s Latest Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·

  • AI infrastructure & data centers

    Hyperscaler AI capex will rise materially into 2027, and hyperscalers' cash-flow strain keeps their stocks lagging.

    Thill says his firm's AI analysis shows capex will only go materially higher into 2027. SpaceX's capex guidance roughly doubled Street expectations for the quarter, and he expects Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and others to be constrained and raise more debt and equity to fund it. The open question is whether hyperscalers' cash flow goes to zero before the ROI arrives. That has weighed on their stocks, which have lagged the companies receiving their AI spending. He expects this to flip in a couple of years, when the spenders become the stocks to own because they supply the AI systems. Meta's nonvoting stock raise is smart given the need for capital.

    “Everything we see in all the data we look at in our AI analysis shows that these capital expenditures are only going to go materially higher as we go into '27.”at 9:32

    CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·

  • Meta PlatformsBullish

    Meta's Muse AI assistant will drive a meaningful revenue tailwind over the next year through ads, subscriptions and agents.

    Thill's team is bullish based on their own usage of Muse, which he calls a killer app. He sees three monetization routes: Muse-driven engagement brings more advertisers because they believe AI is working; heavy token use will force users to re-up through one-time purchases or subscriptions; and Muse agents across devices (phones, wearables, home) will spread into subscriptions and advertising. He says it is early, but the tailwind over the next year is what they are bullish on. He also notes Meta did not highlight Muse's business impact in the release, so the market needs more detail on the call.

    “And again, from our usage, we are very bullish on what we're seeing from the tailwind from what's going to happen with Muse over the next year.”at 11:38

    CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·

  • International Business MachinesUncertain

    IBM faces a continued wall of worry near term over AI positioning, mainframe deal durability and consulting exposure.

    Thill says the first half was a big mess, and cleaning up delayed deals is not enough. IBM must show it is addressing AI in a bigger way, because its 8% software growth lags other software categories. Two-thirds of the mainframe deal upside is the key driver, but clients care more about the next computing trend. Investors worry whether mainframe deals stick or migrate to new AI systems, and whether IBM is positioned as consulting is pressured by AI. He calls IBM consistent and stable, but not a blow-out, and the beat numbers are good but do not remove the worry.

    “So I think there's a continued wall of worry for IBM short term tactically.”at 17:11

    CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·

  • International Business MachinesBearish

    IBM's quantum hype is premature; quantum is not a revenue driver until about 2029.

    Thill says IBM has publicly stated quantum is not a revenue driver, and quantum is not an event until 2029. He does not see why IBM gets so excited about it right now, given that enterprises are focused on AI, not quantum. He thinks IBM and Google have strong quantum positions, but the technology is not ready for prime time. He suspects the emphasis may be a way to deflect from AI weakness, and says IBM should fix its AI position before the quantum wave arrives, which he puts two or three years out. The stance is bearish on the quantum narrative supporting the stock.

    “I wish he wouldn't talk about this honestly because quantum's not a [revenue] event till 2029. Right. They have publicly said it's not a revenue driver.”at 17:56

    CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·

Shows

Ask your AI what Brent Thill thinks

Chorus gives Claude, ChatGPT and other assistants every view Brent Thill has shared on the shows it covers, next to everyone else's. Ask where they stand, what changed, and who disagrees.

Setup guide

Chorus reports what speakers said. It isn't investment advice.