China's Nov. 27 Deadline: America's Next Supply Shock? | Rodney Stevens

Rodney Stevens · NSJ Antimony Corp.

China's expiring antimony export lifeline will likely create a new ex-China shortfall and another price rally.

China imposed its antimony export restriction in 2024 because its smelters were underutilised and domestic mining supply was dwindling, so it kept the metal for internal use. Ex-China, the world now faces a shortfall of about 30,000 tons a year. China gave military users a temporary exemption, but the deadline of November 27 is likely to remove that lifeline. Stevens expects this to create a supply shortfall again and drive another rally in antimony prices. He notes that antimony is consumed and not meaningfully recycled, which keeps the supply gap structural.

“all over the world now is facing about a 30,000 ton per year shortfall of antimony ex China... So it's likely gonna create a supply shortfall again and cause another new rally in the antimony price.”at 5:13

Rodney Stevens · NSJ Antimony Corp.

Antimony is in a multi-year super cycle, with mine lead times and permitting delays keeping supply tight.

If the market is in a long-term bull market, it is probably a super cycle lasting more than five years. That is roughly how long it takes to bring multiple mines into production and through permitting, and permitting has become harder under ESG rules. Within that longer cycle, Stevens expects smaller mini-cycles: users stockpile when prices are high and then draw down those inventories. As stockpiles dwindle, that restocking creates a new price rally. The falling price in 2025–2026 reflects this drawdown, and he sees the cycle as not yet over.

“So the way that I see this is if we're in a long term bull market, we're probably in a super cycle, which could last over five years, And that's normally just how long it would take to get any multiple mines into production and permitted.”at 9:04

Rodney Stevens · NSJ Antimony Corp.

US government is aggressively funding antimony projects, earlier and with fewer strings than Canada.

Stevens says the US government is hungry for antimony and is using financial incentives, including grants, loans and bursaries, to back companies at increasingly early stages, sometimes as early as the initial resource estimate. He cites Perpetua Resources, which had struggled to raise financing until the US government's backing unlocked it. He contrasts this with Canada, which he says tends to lend later, once a mine is near permitting and has a feasibility study. He also says the US does not demand offtake of the metal in return for its support.

“Right now, what we do know is that we've been talking to the US government who's hungry for antimony. And the US government through its financial incentives has even started giving free money to companies with antimony, some loans, bursaries,”at 10:38

Rodney Stevens · NSJ Antimony Corp.

Military use will dominate antimony demand as geopolitical tensions push armies to secure supply.

Stevens acknowledges antimony demand is growing in solar, but he believes military use will remain the dominant source of demand. He cites rising geopolitical tensions, and says armies around the world now see antimony as necessary for their supplies. He argues that because the metal is consumed in munitions and flame retardants and is not recycled, militaries will need more of it, and military demand will likely increase.

“I still think the dominant demand is going to be for military use. There's geopolitical tensions sort of been strengthening around the world, armies around the world are seeing that they need this”at 3:31

Rodney Stevens · NSJ Antimony Corp.

Mining capex and opex have roughly doubled, sometimes tripled, versus the last commodity bull market.

Stevens says that in the 2001–2008 commodity bull market, metal prices and mining costs both rose. In the current cycle, capital and operating costs for mines have roughly doubled, and in some cases tripled. He uses this to explain why new supply is slow to arrive and why the industry learned the lesson of not hedging metal output at historically low prices. Hedging at low prices meant rising costs overtook resale prices for one multi-metal producer that went bankrupt.

“That was the surprise, because in the last bull market from 2001 to 2008 or 'ten, 'eleven, technically, not only did the metals prices go up, but the costs went up as well. So now we're in a world where the CapEx and OpEx have doubled, and in some instances tripled.”at 38:43