How Geopolitics Is Redefining Defense, Energy, Technology and Global Markets

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 13 speakers in other episodes, 20 bullish and 8 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Yasmin Meissner · BlackRockBullish

  SpaceX has cut launch costs, letting the US military put satellites into space far more cheaply and easily.

  Meissner credits SpaceX with a very important role in defence space, because it has brought launch costs down. Lower launch costs mean the US military can put assets into orbit much more cheaply and easily. Satellite data can then be used to identify targets, which gives the military an advantage.

  “SpaceX has had a very important role to play here. It has brought launch costs down. Why does that matter for the US military? Well, it basically means they can put stuff up in space a lot more cheaply and a lot more easily.”at 14:59

K2 Space

• Yasmin Meissner · BlackRockBullish

  K2 Space's much larger satellites are harder for adversaries to jam, giving the military more reliable space data.

  Meissner says a normal satellite has about 2 kilowatts of power, while K2 Space can put up satellites with about 20 kilowatts, much bigger. Once satellites are that large, it becomes much harder for adversaries to jam the data. This gives the US military reliable and consistent data from space, which gives it an edge.

  “This company is able to put up 20 kilowatts, so significantly bigger. The reason why I mentioned it, when they get this big, it becomes much harder for adversaries to then jam the data.”at 15:32

Oil & fuels

• Anna Parker · BlackRock

  Crude oil supply has held up despite the Hormuz disruption, but that resilience is vulnerable and only a point in time.

  After the Iran war began, about 20% of world oil supply and 20% of global LNG exports were initially displaced, and fears of oil reaching very high prices arose. Those fears proved wrong because several stabilisers worked together. Saudi and UAE pipelines built as bypasses to the Strait of Hormuz, plus ship-to-ship transfers in the Persian Gulf, brought Middle Eastern oil exports back to about 98% of prewar levels. The IEA coordinated the largest stock release in history, with the US drawing its strategic petroleum reserve. China also cut oil imports by about 50% from the start of the conflict to about June. Parker cautions that some buffers are drawing down and that renewed escalation threatens the bypass routes, so the resilience is vulnerable.

  “combined with the use of ship to ship transfers in the Persian Gulf, we've seen just in recent weeks, the share of Middle Eastern oil exports resume at about 98% of the prewar level. I would say that this is vulnerable. This is a point in time, but it's a pretty remarkable story around resilience.”at 9:13

• Anna Parker · BlackRock

  China's sharp cut in oil imports during the conflict stabilised the market, helped by its electrification push.

  Parker says China was the most unexpected stabiliser. It cut oil imports by about 50% for a major consumer from the start of the conflict until about June. She is unsure whether this was a deliberate strategic choice or more circumstantial. Either way, China entered the conflict with significant energy reserves and had primed its domestic economy through a long push toward electrification. Parker notes this surprised many observers, including energy experts.

  “We saw China significantly draw back its oil imports during the conflict from the time the conflict began to about June. That was a 50% reduction in oil imports for a major oil consumer.”at 10:07

• Anna Parker · BlackRock

  Crude market resilience is not carrying over to refined products, which remain under historic strain.

  Parker says crude oil has shown resilience through the disruption, but that resilience has not translated evenly to refined products. As a result, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices are under historic strain. She ties this to consumers seeing higher fuel prices even though the crude market has held up.

  “we've certainly seen resilience in the crude market not translate evenly to the refined product markets, which is why we see gasoline prices, diesel, and jet fuel under historic strain.”at 10:59

• Anna Parker · BlackRock

  Energy security investment is about optionality, through route diversification and downstream storage, not full energy independence.

  Parker expects the crisis to drive new resilience investment. She cites diversification of routes, with major Middle East pipeline investments announced to connect supply closer to key markets. She also expects expanded storage closer to downstream customers. She cites Europe diversifying its energy sources after being cut off from Russian gas as a precedent. She concludes that the goal is optionality rather than energy independence writ large.

  “Certainly, diversification of routes. We're already seeing major investments announced around pipeline facilities in The Middle East and connecting those closer to key markets. ... This is mostly about optionality, much more so than energy independence writ large,”at 11:48

Defense

• Yasmin Meissner · BlackRock

  Interceptor stockpiles are being drawn down fast, and costly, long-lead interceptors make replenishment a serious military challenge.

  Meissner cites a CBO study saying up to two-thirds of US Patriot interceptors have been used in the conflict. Patriots defend against drones and missiles. Cheap drones cost around $50k to produce, while a Patriot interceptor costs around $5,000,000 and in some cases has lead times of more than two years. That cost and timing mismatch means the military faces a challenge in committing capital and replenishing stockpiles quickly.

  “up to two thirds of The US Patriot interceptors have now been used during the course of this conflict. ... The drones in question are very cheap to produce, so in the region of 50 k, but the Patriot interceptors are pretty expensive to produce in the range of $5,000,000”at 12:57

• Yasmin Meissner · BlackRock

  Microwave-based counter-drone systems offer a different, scalable way to defend against low-cost drone swarms.

  Meissner's team met a company that uses microwave fields to create an interference field that can protect against drone swarms. She describes this as a completely different way of thinking about defending against drones. The context is the need to defend against low-cost, high-volume drones. She also notes that companies in this area are focused on simple, scalable manufacturing and sometimes bring the whole supply chain in-house.

  “One of the companies that they met produces counter drone technology by using microwave fields. So the idea is you create an interference field. You can protect against a drone swarm.”at 13:58

• Yasmin Meissner · BlackRock

  Defense supply chains must be flexible and fast-iterating, as Ukraine's drone output and learning cycle show.

  Meissner argues that technology changes quickly, so munitions supply chains must be flexible and robust enough to sustain them through any conflict. She cites Ukraine as the example. Ukraine can produce up to 8 million drones a year and runs a six-week battlefield learning cycle, so it adapts very quickly as technology changes.

  “Ukraine is really good at this. Ukraine can produce up to 8,000,000 drones annually. They also have a six week learning cycle within their kind of battlefield.”at 14:38

• Yasmin Meissner · BlackRock

  Military software is becoming a common command-and-control architecture, with hardware modules slotted in, speeding decisions.

  Meissner says the military was previously built around hardware, with each platform (plane, drone, tank) having its own separate command and control system that does not share a language. The military is now moving toward a single software architecture and command and control system that speaks one language, with hardware modules slotted in. This creates much greater efficiency and lets the military combine data from many sources and decide on and execute targets faster. She concludes that the list of suppliers to governments is broadening.

  “The military is increasingly trying to move towards creating this software that becomes this sort of architecture of their whole military system. ... It means that the software becomes the brain, and the hardware becomes the different body parts.”at 16:46

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Yasmin Meissner · BlackRock

  Hyperscalers' AI capex is shifting from internal cash flow toward credit markets, with spend over $1.3 trillion next year.

  Meissner cites a recent estimate that big US hyperscalers will spend more than $1.3 trillion on AI next year. She says that previously these companies funded AI investment mostly from their own cash flows. A growing share is now moving into credit markets to fund the incremental capital need. This shift matters because it moves AI infrastructure financing into the debt market.

  “The latest estimate I've seen is in excess of $1,300,000,000,000 next year. ... Now we are seeing a growing share of them move into credit markets to help fund that incremental capital need.”at 6:45

• Anna Parker · BlackRock

  The AI supply chain is highly globalised, so no country can build the full AI stack alone, even the US or China.

  Parker cites AI-related hardware shipments rising 40% last year, which accounted for a third of global trade growth. She uses a McKinsey example of a US data centre running US frontier models on US-designed chips. Those chips were made in Taiwan with Dutch equipment, paired with Korean high-bandwidth memory, packaged in Southeast Asia, powered by Mexican turbines and wired with Chilean copper. No country can build the full stack alone, and even the US and China have significant dependencies outside their borders. The open question is whether this interdependence stabilises or destabilises the AI build-out.

  “AI related hardware shipments last year rose by 40%, and this accounted for a third of global trade growth. ... So no country right now is capable of fully building that stack on their own.”at 19:15

• Anna Parker · BlackRock

  Countries are building sovereign AI compute outside the US and China, with Malaysia's data centre build-out set to quadruple.

  Parker argues countries are managing technology sovereignty layer by layer rather than seeking full self-reliance. At the input layer they double down on advantages such as critical minerals, energy or memory chips. At the model layer they cultivate national champion labs, citing Cohere, Mistral and G42. At the compute layer data centre expansion is happening outside the US and China, with Southeast Asia growing fast. She projects Malaysia will quadruple its data centre construction in the next two years. Her framing is that AI is critical infrastructure, so countries want compute, sensitive data and guaranteed input access within their borders.

  “At the compute layer, a major expansion of data centers is happening outside The US and China. We see super fast growth in data center markets in Southeast Asia, with Malaysia projected to quadruple its data center construction just in the next two years.”at 21:27

US global standing & alliances

• Anna Parker · BlackRock

  The global economy is rewiring toward resilience, the most important long-term investor theme, not short-term volatility.

  Parker argues the headlines focus on volatility, shocks and chaos, which is not the most important theme for investors, especially long-term ones. The more important shift is the global economy rewiring toward resilience. She says this is driven by geopolitical competition, fragmentation and a series of shocks. Those forces expose dependencies that can be weaponised, leading countries to invest heavily in energy security, defence and technology.

  “What I think actually is the most important theme here is around the way that the global economy is rewiring to focus more on resilience, and that's happening as a result of geopolitical competition, fragmentation, and a series of shocks.”at 2:56

• Anna Parker · BlackRock

  Geopolitical fragmentation is re-emerging as the US resets its geopolitical and economic relationships with the rest of the world.

  Parker says BlackRock's fragmentation theme remains valid. Fragmentation first described the world splitting into blocks because of US–China competition. She argues the world is now seeing another round of fragmentation, driven by the US resetting its geopolitical and economic relationships with the rest of the world. She places this alongside competition and a series of shocks as forces rewiring the global economy.

  “And what we're seeing right now is actually yet another round of fragmentation that's happening as a result of The US moving to reset its relationships geopolitically and economically with the rest of the world.”at 3:45

US–China AI & chip race

• Anna Parker · BlackRock

  US–China competition over AI is accelerating and is a structural, durable feature that outlasts current stability.

  Parker argues US–China competition is accelerating and intensifying, particularly in AI. She calls this a structural and durable fact that extends well beyond the current period of stability in the US–China relationship. She says both countries believe AI will deliver the defining military and economic advantage of the century, and that the competition spans the full technology stack, including the race to secure inputs and dependence within it. Parker frames this as a multi-year driver rather than a headline-driven episode.

  “competition between The US and China is accelerating and intensifying, and that's particularly true around AI. We see this as a structural and durable fact about the world and one that extends well beyond this period of stability in The US China relationship that we're in right now.”at 3:08

Critical minerals & rare earths

• Yasmin Meissner · BlackRock

  China's dominance in rare earths is a strategic weakness for the rest of the world, which the US is trying to fix.

  Meissner says China mines about 60% of the world's rare earths and refines a little more than 90%. Rare earths go into magnets, which matter for defence (fighter jets) and AI (data centres), so they are strategically important. The US is partnering with Australia and Japan to build domestic mining and refining supply chains and is even willing to set a price floor more than double the market price to encourage domestic producers. She calls this a strategic weakness for the rest of the world and a strength for China.

  “What's really interesting is you see, for example, The US even being willing to set a price floor that's more than double the market price to really try to encourage domestic producers to start mining in this space. So that's a kind of area of strategic weakness for the rest of the world and an area of strength for China.”at 23:19

AI chips & semiconductors

• Yasmin Meissner · BlackRock

  Taiwan's over 90% share of global semiconductor output, in a geopolitical hotspot, is a major strategic chokepoint.

  Meissner says Taiwan produces more than 90% of the world's semiconductors and sits in a geopolitical hotspot. As autonomous weapons and AI spread, access to advanced computational power and the ability to replenish stockpiles over time become critically important. She notes China uses rare earths as leverage, while the US has used semiconductors as leverage against China. So chip access is a key choke point to track for energy security, AI operation and defence.

  “the reality is Taiwan produces more than 90% of the world's semiconductors and sits in a geopolitical hotspot.”at 23:39

Russia & Ukraine

• Yasmin Meissner · BlackRock

  Countries increasingly target adversaries' energy infrastructure, with Russian refineries hit roughly every three days this year.

  Meissner argues countries increasingly attack energy infrastructure as a way to exploit adversaries. In Ukraine's case, in the first eight months of 2026, a Russian refinery was attacked about once every three days. She presents this as part of the choke-point dynamic, where strategic weaknesses in energy systems are exploited and so affect energy security.

  “countries increasingly attacking energy infrastructure as a way again to exploit their adversaries. Ukraine, in the first eight months of twenty twenty six, the Russian refinery was attacked once every three days.”at 24:16