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What investors are saying about Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP
Summary
In the past 30 days, 2 people on 2 investor and market shows discussed Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP in 5 views. Going by each speaker's latest call, 2 are bearish. Chorus has followed Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP since November 5, 2026.
Who talks about it most
- John Morley · 4
- Rory O'Driscoll · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
John Morley · Yale Law SchoolBearish
Weil collapsed because its relative profitability fell, even though its profits kept rising.
Morley's framework says a firm can collapse whenever its profits grow more slowly than peers', even with no meaningful debt and rising profits. Weil's profits-per-partner rank fell from about 9th in 2020 to about 20th in 2025, and the decline was starker over a longer history. Its profits still grew year over year, just more slowly than Kirkland's. He attributes this to Weil neither expanding nor shrinking. A powerful rainmaker, Mike Aiello, left in September, and that departure was the final straw. Departing partners take revenue with them, but costs such as leases, staff, pensions and bank debt fall slowly. The remaining partners then earn less, and each departure makes the next one more rational, producing a run-like spiral.
“I specifically predicted that a firm could collapse even when it had no meaningful debts, and even when its profits were not just large but increasing. A firm can collapse basically whenever its profits are not increasing as quickly as its peers.”at 26:02
John Morley · Yale Law SchoolBearish
All of Weil's remaining cash, including incoming fees, will go to creditors, mainly landlords with long leases.
During the wind-down, a few lawyers still serve clients, and the fees they bring in go to the firm. Morley says that cash, including fees over the next few months, will all be consumed by creditors. Weil has little financial debt, but it has many creditors with claims. The largest will be landlords. Monthly rent looks small against revenue, but a landlord with ten years left on a lease can claim the full remaining amount now. That claim would exceed the cash left in the firm.
“But all of the cash, including the fees that are brought in over the next few months, all of that's going to get eaten up by creditors. ... The biggest category by far is gonna be the landlords.”at 47:27
John Morley · Yale Law SchoolBearish
Weil's partners will lose their large January payout, which creditors will absorb during the wind-down.
Law firm partners are paid monthly or quarterly, but they receive a large share, around 50-60% of annual pay, in mid-January after the prior year's books close. Weil's partners worked the first ten months of the year, but they will never receive the January portion for that work, because creditors will absorb the cash. Morley says this makes the situation sad for the partners, though they are not liable for the firm's debts.
“What this means in effect is that the partners at Weil [Gottschall] worked for ten months out of the year, and they're never gonna see the 50% of their compensation for that period that would have been paid to them in January. That's all gonna get eaten up by creditors.”at 48:38
John Morley · Yale Law SchoolBearish
Weil's collapse was a confidence-driven run, worsened by unfavorable economics and toxic governance after Nie's departure.
Morley says Weil's problems combined poor economics with what was reportedly a toxic governance culture. When the news broke that Ramona Nie would not chair the firm, and that she may have known months earlier before disclosing it, he thought whatever faith remained in management would be gone. He describes a law firm collapse as a bank run driven by a crisis of confidence. He had seen the firm in trouble since mid-summer, but this was when he judged the collapse inevitable.
“it had by all accounts a pretty toxic governance culture. ... when that news about her came out, I thought whatever faith was left in the management of this firm is going to be gone.”at 51:07
Rory O'Driscoll · Scale Venture PartnersBearish
Weil's collapse reflects losing key rainmakers, not technology, and such firms can unravel quickly.
Rory reads the accounts and says Weil depends on four or five key lawyers, each running a key part of the business. A clash over a couple of them, and the exit of the head of its PE practice (perhaps 20-30% of the firm), can make things go wrong quickly. He calls it an American law story, not a tech story. He links it to AI: if about 70% of billings come from rainmaker work that AI can't replace, the rest is low-margin.
“As I said, it's four or five key lawyers, each of whom run a key part of the business... I think the guy who ran all the PE practice, which is probably twenty-thirty percent of a company like this, left... And, yeah, it can go wrong pretty quickly.”at 52:47
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